MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

22 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Key DMAs Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 161.82 21-DA

*RES 3: 161.51 Hourly resistance Sept 15

*RES 2: 161.42 High Sept 18

*RES 1: 161.22 Hourly support Sept 20a now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.01

*SUP 1: 160.98 Hourly resistance Sept 21 now support

*SUP 2: 160.66 Low Sept 21, 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 160.62 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 160.50 Low Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 163.43 has seen the contract pressure 55 &

100-DMAs before bouncing a little Thursday. Bears need a close below 160.50 to

confirm a break of key DMAs, ending bullish hopes and hinting at a test of 2017

lows with below 159.58 confirming. The Bolli base (160.75) is the key concern

for bears. Bulls still need a close above 161.51 to ease bearish pressure and

above 162.15 to shift focus back to 162.89-163.43.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 55-DMA Supporting

*RES 4: 131.32 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: 131.27 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: 131.20 Hourly support Sept 20a now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.15 High Sept 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.07

*SUP 1: 131.05 Hourly support Sept 21

*SUP 2: 130.94 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 130.90 Low Aug 16

*SUP 4: 130.68 Low Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 131.98 is now finding support at the 55-DMA and

ahead of the key 130.90 support. Bears continue to look for a close below 130.90

to confirm a break of the 55-DMA, ending bullish hopes and shifting immediate

focus to 130.53-68. O/S studies and the Bollinger base (131.04) are key concerns

for bears. Bulls now need a close above 131.20 to gain breathing room and above

131.32 to shift focus to 131.50-64.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Increased Risk Of Bounce To 112.145-170

*RES 4: 112.205 High Sept 14 

*RES 3: 112.170 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.145 High Sept 19 

*RES 1: 112.115 High Sept 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.100

*SUP 1: 112.077 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 112.065 Low Sept 21 

*SUP 3: 112.023 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 112.015 Low Aug 17

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through courtesy of the Bollinger band base is a

concern for bears and increases the risk of a correction back to 112.145-170.

Bulls now need a close above 112.115 to ease immediate bearish pressure and

above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 112.268-285 where the 100-DMA and Sept

highs are noted. Overall bears need a close below 112.015 to confirm a break of

the 55-DMA and initially target 111.945.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Above 123.89 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 2: 124.36 High Sept 20 

*RES 1: 123.89 Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.70

*SUP 1: 123.36 Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: 123.17 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 121.64 Low June 23 2016

*COMMENTARY: Losses have continued this week following the failure to retake the

124.65-125.21 resistance region with current bearish focus on 122.60-123.17.

Very O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bears.

Layers of resistance are building with bulls now needing a close above 123.89 to

gain breathing room and above 125.21 to shift focus back to 125.88-126.37 where

21, 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.230 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.330

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20

*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Losses have continued for H18 this week with bearish focus now on

99.230 with a close below needed to target 98.980-99.040 where Apr & May 2016

lows are situated. Very O/S studies and the Bollinger base (99.295) remain key

concerns for bears. Initial resistance is noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a

close above to gain breathing room. A close above 99.410 shifts focus back to

the 200-DMA (99.509).

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Below 55-DMA To Pressure 100-DMA

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 1: 100.313 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Aug

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.299 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.286 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of recent 2017 highs took its toll with a

close below 100.310 that confirmed an easing of bullish pressure and sees focus

on the 55-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to initially pressure the

100-DMA and below 100.275 to shift focus to the 200-DMA (100.256). Bulls need a

close above the 21-DMA to return initial focus to 100.320-325. The Bollinger

base (100.302) is the key concern for bears.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On July Low

*RES 4: 126-090 - High Sept 18 

*RES 3: 126-020 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 125-300 - Low Sept 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-270 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: 125-230 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-170 - Low Aug 8 & Sept 20

*SUP 2: 125-040 - Low July 26 

*SUP 3: 124-280 - Low July 12, Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 124-140 - Monthly Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 127-280 resulted in closes below the 100-DMA &

55-WMA (125-260) this week with immediate focus on the 125-170 support and

overall focus on 124-140 July lows. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base

(125-150) remain key concerns for bears. In saying that, layers of resistance

remain with bulls still needing a close above 125-300 to ease bearish pressure

and above 126-090 to hint at a correction to 126-270.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.208-246 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.337 - Repeated Daily Highs July 

*RES 3: 2.330 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.290 - High Aug 4 

*RES 1: 2.287 - High Sept 20

*PRICE: 2.259 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.246 - High Sept 19 now support, Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: 2.222 - Low Sept 19 

*SUP 3: 2.208 - Low Sept 18 

*SUP 4: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The closes above 55 (2.230) & 100 (2.238) DMAs adds to bullish

confidence with immediate focus now on 2.290. Bulls need a close above to

confirm immediate focus on 2.330-337 where the 200-DMA and daily highs are

located. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (2.298) are key concerns for bulls.

Layers of support are accumulating with bears still needing a close below 2.246

to ease bullish pressure and below 2.208 to shift focus lower.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3555.37 To Focus On 3615.06 

*RES 4: 3581.43 High June 26 

*RES 3: 3565.89 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3555.37 High June 29 

*RES 1: 3546.56 High Sept 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3539.59

*SUP 1: 3536.70 Hourly support Sept 21 

*SUP 2: 3520.72 Low Sept 20 

*SUP 3: 3506.61 Low Sept 13 

*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 3539.48 came to an end Thursday with bulls now

looking for a close above 3555.37 to confirm initial focus on 3615.06 and

overall focus on 2017 highs. Momentum divergence and O/B studies remain the key

concern for bulls. Support layers are accumulating with bears needing a close

below 3536.70 to gain breathing room and below 3497.29 to shift initial focus

back to 3441.49-3471.83 where key DMAs are clustered.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]