MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

29 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Above 161.06 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 161.62 Low Sept 26 now resistance

*RES 3: 161.44 Hourly support Sept 25a now resistance

*RES 2: 161.06 Hourly resistance Sept 27

*RES 1: 160.96 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.90

*SUP 1: 160.67 Hourly support Sept 28

*SUP 2: 160.41 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 160.24 Low Sept 28

*SUP 4: 159.79 Low Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of 160.50 and the 100-DMA

(160.73) is less than ideal for bears with the Bollinger base (160.41) remaining

the key concern. Bears now look for a close below 160.67 to ease pressure on the

55-DMA and below 160.24 to initially focus on 159.58-79. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 161.06 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and gain breathing

room and above 162.15 to end bearish hopes and target 162.89-163.43.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bounces Ahead Of Key Support

*RES 4: 131.49 High Sept 15 

*RES 3: 131.44 High Sept 27 

*RES 2: 131.32 Hourly resistance Sept 27 

*RES 1: 131.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.17

*SUP 1: 131.10 Hourly support Sept 28

*SUP 2: 130.92 Low Sept 28, Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 130.90 Low Aug 16

*SUP 4: 130.68 High July 31 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 55-DMA (131.059) lacked follow through Thursday

with bulls taking comfort in the bounce from ahead of the 130.90 support. Bears

still need a close below 130.90 to add weight to the case for a move back to

129.72 July lows. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above

131.32 to gain breathing room and above 131.64 to end bearish hopes and shift

focus back to 131.83.98.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.180 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.230 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.205 High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 112.180 High Sept 25 

*RES 1: 112.155 High Sept 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.150

*SUP 1: 112.125 Hourly resistance Sept 28 now support 

*SUP 2: 112.090 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 3: 112.075 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 112.065 Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of 112.180 with hesitation around

the 21-DMA dominating. The lack of follow through and bounce from 112.090 is

less than ideal for bears who are focused on 112.056-065. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to hint hints at a move back to 111.760 with below 112.015 to

confirm. Bulls need a close above 112.180 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

initially pressure 112.230-285 where the 100-DMA (112.230) is located.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Finding Support On Dips

*RES 4: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 2: 124.36 High Sept 20 

*RES 1: 123.97 High Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.63

*SUP 1: 123.49 Hourly support Sept 28 

*SUP 2: 123.29 Hourly support Sept 28a 

*SUP 3: 123.12 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 4: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: Very O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern

for bears and have added to the correction risk following Thursday's bounce. In

saying that, layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above 123.97

to gain breathing room and above 124.65 to shift immediate focus to 125.21.

Bears now need a close below 123.12 to reconfirm the bearish focus on 2017 lows.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On 99.230

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*RES 1: 99.330 High Sept 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.330

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20 & 28

*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Losses continued for H18 last week with bearish focus on 99.230 and

a close below needed to target 98.980-99.040 where Apr & May 2016 lows are

situated. Very O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Key resistance is

still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. A

close above 99.410 is needed to shift initial focus back to the 21-DMA (99.451)

and overall focus to the 200-DMA (99.507).

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Sept 25 & 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.303 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.289 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55-DMA took its toll with a dip below Thursday only

to bounce from 100.300. Bears look for a close below 100.300 to initially

pressure 100.275-289 where the 100-DMA is located. Modestly O/S studies

correcting add support to the bullish case for a return in pressure to

100.325-330 with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to confirm. Bollinger bands

(100.303-323) remain flat as broad sideways trading continues.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On July Low

*RES 4: 126-050 - High Sept 20, 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 126-040 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-180 - Hourly resistance Sept 27, High Sept 28

*PRICE: 125-170 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-140 - Hourly resistance Sept 28 now support

*SUP 2: 125-020 - Low Sept 28

*SUP 3: 125-000 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 124-280 - Low July 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth lows Thursday have so far lacked follow through which is

a concern for bears given daily momentum divergence, correcting O/S studies and

proximity of the Bollinger base increasing the risk of a correction back to

126-040/090. In saying that, bulls need a close above 125-230 to gain breathing

room and a close above 126-090 to hint at a correction back to 126-270. While

the 126-040/090 region caps bears target July lows (124-140).

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.366 - High July 13 

*RES 3: 2.359 - High Sept 28 

*RES 2: 2.326 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.316 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 2.314 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.301 - Hourly support Sept 27 & 28 

*SUP 2: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a 

*SUP 3: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Sept lows resulted in a pop above the 200-DMA

although the lack of follow through is a concern for bulls when combined with

the proximity of the Bollinger top (2.357), correcting O/B studies and momentum

divergence increasing the risk of a correction. The 2.284 support is key today

with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to 2.208-2.214. Bulls now

need a close above 2.366 to retain focus on 2.437.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3529.19 To Shift Focus Lower 

*RES 4: 3601.98 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 3589.86 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3581.43 High June 26 

*RES 1: 3566.60 High Sept 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3563.64

*SUP 1: 3556.50 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 2: 3546.83 High Sept 26 now support 

*SUP 3: 3529.19 Low Sept 26 

*SUP 4: 3520.72 Low Sept 20

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 3555.37 came to an end with a break higher that

sees bulls focused on layers of resistance 3581.43-3615.06 where monthly highs

and the bull channel top are situated. Daily momentum divergence remains a

concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below 3556.50 to ease

bullish pressure and below 3529.19 to shift focus back to 3476.36-3509.21 where

key DMAs and the daily bull channel base are located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]