MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

18 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 163.43

*RES 4: 163.43 Monthly high Sept 8

*RES 3: 163.00 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: 162.89 Low Sept 11 now resistance

*RES 1: 162.78 High Oct 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.62

*SUP 1: 162.35 Low Oct 17

*SUP 2: 162.15 High Oct 13 now support

*SUP 3: 161.85 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 4: 161.57 Hourly resistance Oct 13a now support

*COMMENTARY: The 161.03-11 support region provided the base last week for a

break higher Friday and bullish close following a sharp narrowing of Bollinger

bands. The close above 162.15 Tuesday adds to bullish confidence and shifts

bullish focus to tests of 163.43. Layers of support are following the contract

higher. Bears still need a close below 162.15 to ease immediate bullish pressure

and below 161.57 to shift focus back to 160.59-161.07.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 131.83-98

*RES 4: 131.98 Monthly High Sept 8 

*RES 3: 131.83 High Sept 11 

*RES 2: 131.60 High Sept 14 

*RES 1: 131.76 High Oct 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.65

*SUP 1: 131.57 High Oct 13 now support

*SUP 2: 131.49 Low Oct 16

*SUP 3: 131.37 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 4: 131.25 Hourly support Oct 12

*COMMENTARY: Narrowed Bollinger bands suggested a breakout last week and bulls

have not been disappointed with the close above 131.64 shifting bullish focus to

131.83-98. Above 131.98 is now needed to target WMAs 132.080-132.349. Layers of

support accumulating adds to bullish confidence. Bears continue to look for a

close below 131.49 to ease bullish pressure and below 131.37 to shift focus back

to 131.13.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112-185/215 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.360 Monthly high Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.285 Monthly high Sept 8 

*RES 2: 112.250 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.249 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.225

*SUP 1: 112.215 High Oct 5 now support, Low Oct 17 

*SUP 2: 112.185 High Oct 10 now support 

*SUP 3: 112.170 Hourly resistance Oct 12 now support 

*SUP 4: 112.155 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Dips found support ahead of the 55-DMA (112.127) last week with

bulls taking comfort in a close above the key 112.230 resistance that sees

bullish focus back on 112.285 with a close above then targeting 112.360. Daily

studies have room to move before O/B becomes an issue. Bears still need a close

below 112.215 to gain breathing room and below 112.185 to shift focus back to

112.105-122 where the 55-DMA is situated.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Focus Shifts To 100-WMA

*RES 4: 125.76 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 125.56 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 125.22 100-WMA 

*RES 1: 124.96 High Oct 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.80

*SUP 1: 124.52 Hourly support Oct 17 

*SUP 2: 124.34 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support 

*SUP 3: 124.02 Low Oct 17 

*SUP 4: 123.86 Hourly resistance Oct 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Very narrowed Bollinger bands suggested a breakout and bulls have

not been disappointed with a close above 124.65 shifting immediate focus to the

100-WMA and then the 125.56-00 region above where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

Layers of support have followed higher with bears needing a close below 124.34

to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 123.12-32.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bullish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*RES 1: 99.350 High Oct 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.340

*SUP 1: 99.334 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.320 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support

*SUP 3: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*SUP 4: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from fresh 2017 and 16mth lows has resulted in a

bullish key day reversal. Bulls still need a close above 99.360 to ease bearish

pressure with a close above 99.410 remaining needed to shift focus to 99.469-520

where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are clustered. Bollinger bands remain very narrowed and

increase the likelihood of a break out in the near future.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Regain Upper Hand

*RES 4: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Sept & Oct now support

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 3: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 100.295 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support at 100.305 provided the base for a break of 100.315 with

bulls focused on 100.320-325 where 2017 highs are situated. Overall a close

above 100.330 is needed to target 100.360. Bears now need a close below 100.305

to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below 100.300 to initially pressure

the 100-DMA (100.295). Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 124-140/310 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 126-020 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-290 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 125-255 - High Oct 13 

*RES 1: 125-165 - Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance

*PRICE: 125-130 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-100 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 125-050 - Hourly support Oct 11

*SUP 3: 124-310 - Hourly support Oct 9

*SUP 4: 124-287 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 125-100 support lacked follow through Tuesday with

the contract bouncing from ahead of the 125-050 support. Bulls now need a close

above 125-165 to gain breathing room and return pressure to 125-250/126-090

where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears now look for a close below 124-310 to

shift focus lower and below 124-140 to target tests of 123-005 2016 lows.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus on 2.208-2.245

*RES 4: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 3: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11 

*RES 2: 2.334 - High Oct 13 

*RES 1: 2.310 - Hourly resistance Oct 17

*PRICE: 2.300 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.296 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 2: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.237 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Friday's close below 21 (2.303) & 200

(2.314) DMAs is less than ideal for bears who are focused on 2.208-2.245 where

55 & 100-DMAs are noted. The spike higher Tuesday lacked follow through and

leaves the yield looking a little heavy. Bears now need a close below Tuesday's

low to add weight to the case. Bulls now need a close above 2.334 to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above 2.402 to return initial focus to 2.437.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Channel Base 

*RES 4: 3680.65 Daily Bull channel 

*RES 3: 3666.80 2017 High May 8 

*RES 2: 3643.67 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3619.66 High Oct 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3607.27

*SUP 1: 3598.12 Low Oct 17 

*SUP 2: 3589.98 Low Oct 10 

*SUP 3: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3580.10 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through remains lacking following continued 5mth

highs by the smallest of margins. Bulls now look for a close above 3619.66 to

add support to the case for a test of 3666.80-3680.65 where the daily bull

channel top and 2017 highs are situated. Layers of support are accumulating with

bears needing a close below 3289.98 to ease bullish pressure and below the daily

bull channel base to shift focus back to 3505.70-3529.19.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]