MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

20 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On 21 & 55-DMAs

*RES 4: 163.43 Monthly high Sept 8

*RES 3: 162.89 Low Sept 11 now resistance

*RES 2: 162.78 High Oct 17

*RES 1: 162.56 High Oct 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.12

*SUP 1: 162.04 Low Oct 19

*SUP 2: 161.85 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 3: 161.61 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 161.52 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A double daily top has been left in place and combined with daily

studies looking to correct from O/B hints at a correction initially targeting

161.52-61 where the 21 & 55-DMS are situated. Overall bears need a close below

the 21-DMA to confirm pressure on 160.95-161.07 where the daily bull channel

base and 100-DMA are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above 162.89

to reconfirm the bullish bias and target 163.43.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Correcting Back to 21 & 55-DMAs

*RES 4: 131.98 Monthly High Sept 8 

*RES 3: 131.83 High Sept 11 

*RES 2: 131.76 High Oct 17 

*RES 1: 131.63 Hourly support Oct 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.51

*SUP 1: 131.44 Hourly support Oct 13

*SUP 2: 131.37 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 3: 131.33 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 131.25 Hourly support Oct 12

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through Tuesday resulted in a sell-off

that eased immediate bullish pressure and hints at a correction initially

targeting 21 & 55-DMAs. Below the 55-DMA shifts immediate focus to 130.90-131.13

with the 100-DMA at 131.06. Bulls still need a close above 131.63 to gain

breathing room and above 131.83 to confirm immediate focus on 131.98 Sept highs

and the 132.065-112 region where 55 & 100-WMAs are noted.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Pressuring Key Supports

*RES 4: 112.285 Monthly high Sept 8 

*RES 3: 112.263 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 112.250 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.230 High Oct 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.220

*SUP 1: 112.185 High Oct 10 now support 

*SUP 2: 112.170 Hourly resistance Oct 12 now support 

*SUP 3: 112.164 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 112.134 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top resulted in a

correction back towards the 112.185 support. Bears continue to look for a close

below 112.185 to shift focus to 112.105-135 where key DMAs are located. Overall

below 112.065 is needed to open up for a move back to 111.945-112.015. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 112.250 to reconfirm the bullish bias and

above 112.285 to target 112.360.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 124.34 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 125.54 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 125.22 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 124.99 High Oct 18 

*RES 1: 124.74 Hourly support Oct 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.50

*SUP 1: 124.64 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 2: 124.34 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support 

*SUP 3: 124.02 Low Oct 17 

*SUP 4: 124.01 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of the 124.34 support

despite looking heavy Wednesday. Immediate focus has returned to the

124.99-125.22 resistance region. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

100-WMA to confirm immediate focus on 125.54-71 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

Bears need a close below 124.34 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and

below 123.86 to shift focus back to 123.12-32.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.330 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.370 High Oct 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.360

*SUP 1: 99.330 Low Oct 18

*SUP 2: 99.320 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support

*SUP 3: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*SUP 4: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from fresh 2017 and 16mth lows resulted in a bullish

key day reversal Tuesday and a break of 99.360 Thursday but topside follow

through has been lacking. Bulls retain the advantage while 99.330 supports but

now need a close above 99.410 to shift immediate focus to 99.450-464 where the

55-DMA is located. Bears need a close below 99.330 to shift pressure back to

2017 lows.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300-305 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Sept & Oct now support

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 3: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 100.296 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support at 100.305 provided the base for a break of 100.315 with

bulls focused on 100.320-325 where 2017 highs are situated. Overall a close

above 100.330 is needed to target 100.360. Bears still need a close below

100.305 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below 100.300 to initially

pressure the 100-DMA (100.295) and daily bull channel base (100.294).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 125-16+ Resistance Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 125-29+ 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-25+ High Oct 13 

*RES 2: 125-16+ Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-05+ Hourly support Oct 19 now resistance

*PRICE: 125-02 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 124-31 Hourly support Oct 9 & 20

*SUP 2: 124-26+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 124-22+ Low Oct 6

*SUP 4: 123-23+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive recovery from ahead of 125-01+ remained capped ahead

of the 125-16+ resistance and the bear channel top (125-12+). Bulls need a close

above125-16+ to ease bearish pressure and return focus to 125-25+/126-09 where

55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears now need a close below 124-31 to confirm focus

on 124-14/22+ where July lows are situated. Note the channel base comes in

around 123-23+.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.278 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: 2.353 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.332 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 3: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: The yield suffered a setback following the failure to gain traction

above 21 (2.312) & 200 (2.313) DMAs but failure to take out the 2.278 support

has seen bulls return pressure to resistance layers. While 2.278 supports bulls

retain the upper hand and focus on layers of resistance 2.372-437. Above 2.437

remains needed to shift initial focus to 2.544-558. Bears need a close below

2.278 to shift focus back to 2.208-245 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3582.07 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: 3644.03 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 3625.87 High Oct 18 

*RES 2: 3615.83 Hourly support Oct 19 now support 

*RES 1: 3607.21 Low Oct 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3602.08

*SUP 1: 3592.20 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 3588.17 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3556.50 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through provided the catalyst for a dip

back to the 21-DMA and daily bull channel base. Bears continue to look for a

close below 3582.07 to hint at a move back to 3506.61-3529.19 where 55 &

100-DMAs are noted. Daily studies correcting add weight to bearish case. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 3625.87 to reconfirm the bullish bias and

target 2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]