MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

26 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Bears Now Need Close Below 160.59

*RES 4: 162.43 55-WMA

*RES 3: 162.04 Low Oct 19 now resistance

*RES 2: 161.78 High Oct 23

*RES 1: 161.35 Low Oct 20 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.11

*SUP 1: 160.76 Low Oct 25

*SUP 2: 160.59 Low Oct 6 

*SUP 3: 160.48 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 160.24 Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in dips below the 100-DMA but now need a close

below 160.59 to initially pressure Sept lows and below this level to confirm

focus on 159.58-79. The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears and has

potential to limit follow through. Bulls continue to look for a close above

161.35 to gain breathing room and above 162.04 to shift focus back to

162.43-163.43 where Sept highs, 55 (162.43) & 100 (163.05) WMAs are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On 130.90-131.02

*RES 4: 131.47 High Oct 23 

*RES 3: 131.38 Hourly support Oct 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: 131.36 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 131.29 Hourly resistance Oct 24

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.18

*SUP 1: 131.09 Low Oct 24

*SUP 2: 131.02 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 131.01 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 130.90 Low Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: Closes below 21 (131.34) & 55 (131.36) DMAs Tuesday added weight to

the bearish case with focus on 130.90-131.02 where the 100-DMA and Sept lows are

found. Bears need a close below 130.90 to pressure the bear channel base

(130.75). Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

above 131.47 to return focus to 131.63-83 where the daily bear channel top

(131.70) off Sept highs and Bollinger top are noted.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 112.230 High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 112.220 High Oct 23 

*RES 2: 112.200 Hourly support Oct 23 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.180 Hourly resistance Oct 24

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.170

*SUP 1: 112.150 55-DMA, Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 112.105 Low Oct 6 

*SUP 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 

*SUP 4: 112.015 Low Aug 17

*COMMENTARY: Despite closes below the 21-DMA (112.174) the 55-DMA confirmed

significance and currently supports. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to add

weight to the case for a test of 112.065 Sept lows. Daily studies are well

placed for losses but the Bollinger base is likely to become a concern and limit

follow through. Bulls need a close above 112.200 to gain breathing room and

above 112.285 to target 112.360.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 122.60-123.12 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 124.27 High Oct 25 

*RES 3: 124.05 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 123.96 Low Oct 24 now resistance 

*RES 1: 123.76 Hourly resistance Oct 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.51

*SUP 1: 123.28 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 123.17 Low Oct 25 

*SUP 3: 123.12 Monthly Low Sept 28 

*SUP 4: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 125.00 level last week took its toll Friday

with a sell-off that sees initial bearish focus on Sept lows with a close below

needed to shift immediate focus to 2017 lows and overall focus to the bear

channel base (120.60). The Bollinger base is the key concern with potential to

limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above 124.75 to confirm a break of

the channel top and hint at a test of 55 (125.42) & 100 (125.59) DMAs.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Narrowed Bollis Suggesting Breakout

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.400 High Oct 20

*RES 2: 99.370 Hourly resistance Oct 23

*RES 1: 99.350 Lows Oct 23 & 24 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.330

*SUP 1: 99.320 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support

*SUP 2: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*SUP 3: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 4: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 and 16mth lows saw a pop higher Friday

although follow through has been lacking. The close below the 21-DMA (99.338)

eased bullish pressure and sees focus back on 99.300 2017 lows. Bears look for a

close below 2017 lows to shift focus to 99.110-230. Very narrowed Bollinger

bands (98.312-99.364) remain suggestive of a breakout. Bulls now need a close

above 99.370 to see pressure back on 99.390-410.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Sept & Oct now support

*SUP 2: 100.311 - 55-DMA, 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Support at 100.305 provided the base for a break of 100.315 with

bulls focused on 100.320-325 where 2017 highs are situated. Overall a close

above 100.330 is needed to target 100.360. Bears look for a close below the

55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and shift focus to layers of support 100.296-305

where the bull channel base and 100-DMA are found. Overall bears need a close

below the channel base (100.296) to shift focus to 100.285.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Close Above 124-22 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 125-05+ Hourly support Oct 19 now resistance, 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-01+ Hourly resistance Oct 20 

*RES 2: 124-28  Hourly support Oct 23 now resistance 

*RES 1: 124-22  High Oct 25

*PRICE: 124-180 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 124-12+ Hourly resistance Oct 25 now support

*SUP 2: 124-06  Low Oct 25

*SUP 3: 124-00+ Rising Weekly TL

*SUP 4: 123-12+ Daily Bear channel base B

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Wednesday adds to bearish confidence although the lack

of follow through and proximity of the Bollinger base (124-17+) are concerns for

bears. In saying that, bulls now need a close above 124-22 to gain breathing

room and above the 21-DMA to return pressure to the key 125-16+ resistance.

Bears currently focus on 123-12+/124-00+ where the daily bear channel base and

rising weekly TL are located.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 2.550 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.475 - High Oct 25 

*RES 1: 2.448 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*PRICE: 2.430 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.414 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 2.394 - Hourly support Oct 24 

*SUP 3: 2.363 - Hourly support Oct 23 

*SUP 4: 2.347 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs continue although the lack of topside follow

through is a concern. The Bollinger top (2.428) is the key concern for bulls and

currently limits follow through. The 2.347-2.394 support region is key today.

Bears now need a close below 2.394 to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA

to initially pressure the 200-DMA (2.314) and hint at a correction back to

2.247-278 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Topside Hesitation Taking Its Toll 

*RES 4: 3650.83 High May 11 

*RES 3: 3630.23 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3625.87 High Oct 18 

*RES 1: 3605.33 Low Oct 24 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3591.46

*SUP 1: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 2: 3556.50 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 3: 3529.19 Low Sept 26 

*SUP 4: 3518.70 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is taking its toll with the index closing below

the 21-DMA (3600.60) & bull channel base Wednesday with immediate pressure on

3582.07. Bears need a close below 3582.07 to shift focus to 3506.61-3529.19

where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3625.87 to

reconfirm the bullish bias and target 2017 highs. Bollinger bands continue to

narrow (3570.96-3630.23) and increase the risk of a breakout.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]