MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

12 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Lacking Topside Follow Through, 163.17 Support Key

*RES 4: 164.80 Daily Bull channel top (off Oct 25 low)

*RES 3: 163.93 Daily Bull channel top (off Sept low)

*RES 2: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 1: 163.78 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.51

*SUP 1: 163.17 Low Dec 8

*SUP 2: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5

*SUP 3: 162.64 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 4: 162.42 Daily Bull channel base (off Oct 25 low)

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 6mth highs lacked follow through, capped by the Bollinger top

(163.88) and ahead of a bull channel top. Bears continue to look for a close

below 163.17 to ease bullish pressure and below 162.64 to shift focus to layers

of support 161.93-162.42 where the 55-DMA (161.96) & a channel base are located.

While 163.17 supports bulls remain focused on daily bull channel tops with a

close above 163.93 to add to bullish confidence.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: 132.975 Daily Bull channel top (Oct 25 low) 

*RES 3: 132.850 Low May 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: 132.740 High Dec 7 

*RES 1: 132.620 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.520

*SUP 1: 132.430 Hourly resistance Dec 5 now support

*SUP 2: 132.395 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 132.340 Hourly support Dec 5

*SUP 4: 132.250 Low Dec 4

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of last week's high continued Monday and resulted

in a close below 132.520, easing bullish pressure and sees bears looking for a

correction initially targeting 132.206-250 where the 55-DMA is noted. A close

below the 55-DMA then shift focus to 131.836-132.065 where the bull channel base

and 100-DMA are situated. Bulls need a close above 132.74 to reconfirm a bullish

bias initially targeting the bull channel top.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.190-240 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 112.325 High Apr 18 

*RES 3: 112.270 Monthly high Sept 7 

*RES 2: 112.240 High Dec 7 

*RES 1: 112.190 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.160

*SUP 1: 112.127 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 112.103 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 112.095 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 112.025 Monthly Lows Oct 26 & Nov 30

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to gain traction above 112.185 with the bearish

closes Friday and Monday easing bullish pressure and shifting initial focus to

key DMAs. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm

immediate pressure back on the double daily bottom at 112.025. Bulls now look

for a close above 112.190 to gain breathing room and above 112.240 to reconfirm

focus on 112.270-325.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Recovers From 55-DMA Dip

*RES 4: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 125.55 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 125.21 High Sept 15 

*RES 1: 125.08 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.98

*SUP 1: 124.50 Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 

*SUP 2: 124.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 123.69 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 123.62 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Friday's dip below the 55-DMA has resulted in

fresh 3mth highs with bulls now focused on 125.21-55 where the daily bull

channel top is situated. The Bollinger top (124.93) remains a concern for bulls

with potential to limit follow through. Layers of support building see bears

needing a close below 124.22 to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

123.62-69 where the 55-DMA and last week's low are found.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.390-410 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: 99.485 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.438 100-DMA

*RES 1: 99.427 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.420

*SUP 1: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 3: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*SUP 4: 99.366 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.370-410 came to an end Friday with a break

higher although hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA is less than ideal. In saying

that, bulls now focus on 99.438-450 where the 100-DMA is situated. Support

layers are now building with bears needing a close below 99.390 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (99.395) and shift focus back to 99.350-370 where the 55-DMA

is located.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.320-325 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Monthly Highs Oct & Nov

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Nov now support

*SUP 2: 100.306 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1 & 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to the 100.320 resistance, bulls have so

far failed to produce the close above 100.325 needed to shift focus to

100.340-380 last seen in Sept/Oct 2016. Pressure has returned to Initial support

at 100.315 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below

100.305 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift focus back to 100.295 where

the 100-DMA is noted.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Remains Capped Ahead of 55-DMA

*RES 4: 125-00  High Nov 28 

*RES 3: 124-25+ Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: 124-22+ 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 124-17+ High Dec 11

*PRICE: 124-10 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 124-02+ Low Dec 5

*SUP 2: 123-29+ Monthly Low Nov 30

*SUP 3: 123-27  Lows Oct 25 & 27

*SUP 4: 123-07+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in continued topside failures ahead of the

55-DMA and bear channel top. Bulls need a close above 125-00 to confirm breaks

and shift immediate focus to 125-06+/14+ and overall focus to 125-25+. The

sell-off Thursday left the contract looking heavy once more with focus having

returned to 123-27/124-02+ where monthly lows are noted. Below 123-27 targets

the bear channel base 123-08+.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.437 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 2: 2.424 - High Dec 1 

*RES 1: 2.395 - High Dec 5

*PRICE: 2.383 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.376 - Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.351 - Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.303 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.287 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield found support last week ahead of the 200-DMA and key

2.273-2.303 support region where the 100-DMA and 21-WMA are also noted. The

close above Wednesday's high (2.363) eased bearish pressure and sees focus back

on the 2.437 resistance. Bulls need a close above this level to return pressure

to 2.477 Oct highs with a close above then targeting 2017 highs. Bears need a

close below 2.351 to pressure the 200-DMA.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3497.29 & 3642.10 Levels Remain Key 

*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 1: 3592.69 High Nov 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3582.21

*SUP 1: 3568.36 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3558.50 Low Dec 7 

*SUP 3: 3547.56 Hourly resistance Dec 6 now support 

*SUP 4: 3528.64 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support continued to emerge on dips back towards the 200-DMA and

weekly bull channel base (3526.37) last week although follow through remains

lacking above the 55-DMA (3598.79). Bulls need a close above 3642.10 to confirm

traction above the bear channel top (3600.32) and 55-DMA, initially targeting

2017 highs. Below 3497.29 is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and the

weekly bull channel base, with below 3467.78 to target 3363.68-3397.27.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]