MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

18 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Pressure Remains On Last Week's Highs

*RES 4: 165.05 Daily Bull channel top (off Oct 26 low)

*RES 3: 164.03 Daily Bull channel top (off Sept low)

*RES 2: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 1: 163.78 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.57

*SUP 1: 163.37 Low Dec 15

*SUP 2: 163.25 Hourly Breakout level Dec 14

*SUP 3: 162.90 Low Dec 14

*SUP 4: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5

*COMMENTARY: Follow through remains lacking on dips with H18 having found

support around the 21-DMA (163.01) and bulls focused on 163.78-164.03 where a

bull channel top is noted. The Bollinger top (163.89) remains the key concern

for bulls. Bears still need a close below 163.25 to pressure 162.67-163.01 where

the bull channel base off Oct 25 lows and the 21-DMA are located. Below the

channel base initially targets 161.47-162.15 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 132.74 To Reconfirm Bullish Bias

*RES 4: 132.850 Low May 30 now resistance 

*RES 3: 132.740 High Dec 7 

*RES 2: 132.707 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 132.550 Highs Dec 13 & 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.400

*SUP 1: 132.252 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 132.250 Low Dec 4

*SUP 3: 132.112 Daily Bull channel base (Off Oct 25 low)

*SUP 4: 131.970 Monthly low Nov 30

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 21-DMA (132.411) found support ahead of the 55-DMA

last week with pressure again returning to the 132.62-74 region. Bulls need a

close above 132.74 to reconfirm a bullish bias initially targeting the bull

channel top (133.034). Bears now look for a close below 125.250 to pressure

layers of support 131.860-132.1112 where the bull channel base and 100-DMA

(131.917) are noted.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Below 55-DMA Targets Double Daily Bottom

*RES 4: 112.325 High Apr 18 

*RES 3: 112.270 Monthly high Sept 7 

*RES 2: 112.240 High Dec 7 

*RES 1: 112.190 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.125

*SUP 1: 112.110 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 112.094 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: 112.034 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 112.025 Monthly Lows Oct 26 & Nov 30

*COMMENTARY: Downside follow through is lacking with H18 bouncing from the

55-DMA although bounces are beginning to lack momentum. Bulls need a close above

112.190 to ease bearish pressure and above 112.240 to reconfirm focus on

112.270-325. Correcting modestly O/B daily studies are less than ideal for

bulls. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes

and confirm immediate pressure back on the double daily bottom at 112.025.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Support Layers Accumulating

*RES 4: 126.82 Low Aug 24 now resistance 

*RES 3: 126.67 High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125.69 High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.47

*SUP 1: 125.30 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 2: 125.02 Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 3: 124.50 Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support

*SUP 4: 124.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs continue although the pop above the bull channel

top lacked follow through Friday. In saying that, bulls now focus on the

126.00-67 region last seen back in Sept. Layers of support building adds to

bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close below 125.02 to ease immediate

bullish pressure and below 124.22 to return focus to 123.62-85 where the 55-DMA

and weekly lows are found.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Above 99.450 Targets 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.483 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450

*SUP 1: 99.430 Highs Dec 12 & 13

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 99.450 resistance with bulls taking comfort

in the closes above the 100-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.450

to shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted. Support

layers are building with bears now needing a close below the 21-DMA (99.404) to

ease bullish pressure and below 99.371 to hint at a move back to 99.300-310 with

below 99.350 confirming.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305-310 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.331 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.307 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 &

*SUP 4: 100.298 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 is less than ideal for

bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310

support region is key this week. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus to 100.294-298 where the bull channel base and

100-DMA are located. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to initially

pressure the bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 124-05 & 124-23 Levels Key

*RES 4: 125-00 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: 124-23 High Dec 6 

*RES 2: 124-22+ Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 124-20+ 55-DMA

*PRICE: 124-10 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 124-07 Low Dec 14

*SUP 2: 124-05 Hourly support Dec 13

*SUP 3: 123-29+ Low Dec 13

*SUP 4: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27

*COMMENTARY: Pressure continue to return to 124-20+/23+ where the 55-DMA and

bear channel top are situated. Bulls now look for a close above the 124-23 to

shift immediate focus to 125-00/07+ where the 100-DMA is located. Support layers

remain adding to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below 124-05 to ease

pressure on the 55-DMA and reconfirm focus on the key 123-27/29+ support region.

Below 123-27 targets the channel base 123-05.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring Channel Base

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 3: 2.426 - High Dec 13 

*RES 2: 2.398 - Hourly resistance Dec 13 

*RES 1: 2.380 - High Dec 15

*PRICE: 2.367 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.352 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 2.301 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.290 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: The 2.437 resistance remains key with topside failures resulting in

sell-offs and bears focused on the 2.273-303 region where key DMAs and Oct low

are located. Layers of resistance building are now weighing with bulls needing a

close above 2.398 to ease bearish pressure and return initial focus to

2.426-437. Overall above 2.437 targets 2017 highs and below 2.273 hints at a

move back to 2017 lows at 2.016 with below 2.207 to confirm.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Supported Ahead of Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*RES 4: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 3601.30 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 3581.05 Hourly resistance Dec 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3560.53

*SUP 1: 3535.97 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low) 

*SUP 2: 3532.30 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3519.35 Low Dec 7 

*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow-through above the 55-DMA took its toll

with focus having returned to the lower end of the defining 3519.35-3620.01

range where the weekly bull channel base is noted. Bears need a close below

3519.35 to confirm breaks of key supports and below 3497.29 to initially target

the bear channel base (3432.22). Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to hint at

a move back to Nov highs with above 3642.10 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]