MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

19 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 163.25

*RES 4: 164.06 Daily Bull channel top (off Sept low)

*RES 3: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 2: 163.78 High Dec 11

*RES 1: 163.61 Hourly resistance Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.30

*SUP 1: 163.25 Hourly Breakout level Dec 14

*SUP 2: 162.90 Low Dec 14

*SUP 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5

*SUP 4: 162.73 Daily Bull channel base (off Oct 25 low)

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of last week's high is a concern with the

Bollinger top (163.92) and modestly O/B studies key concerns. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 163.78 to confirm focus on bull channel tops

164.06-165.12. The 163.25 support remains key. Bears need a close below to

pressure 162.73-163.05 where the bull channel base off Oct 25 lows and the

21-DMA are located. Below the channel base initially targets 161.49-162.20.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Pressuring Key Supports

*RES 4: 132.740 High Dec 7 

*RES 3: 132.704 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 132.550 Highs Dec 13 & 15 

*RES 1: 132.350 Hourly support Dec 15 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.300

*SUP 1: 132.261 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 132.250 Low Dec 4

*SUP 3: 132.124 Daily Bull channel base (Off Oct 25 low)

*SUP 4: 131.970 Monthly low Nov 30

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off to start the new week leaves the contract looking

heavy and pressuring support layers. Bears need a close below the daily bull

channel base to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift immediate pressure to

131.860-970. Daily studies are well placed for a break lower. Bulls now need a

close above 132.35 to gain breathing room and above 163.550 to return focus to

132.740 highs from last week.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On Double Daily Bottom

*RES 4: 112.240 High Dec 7 

*RES 3: 112.190 High Dec 11 

*RES 2: 112.126 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 112.111 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.090

*SUP 1: 112.034 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 112.025 Monthly Lows Oct 26 & Nov 30 

*SUP 3: 111.945 Low Aug 8 

*SUP 4: 111.855 Low July 21

*COMMENTARY: Bearish confidence grows with the close below the 55-DMA and

100-WMA (112.098) ending bullish hopes and shifting immediate focus to the

double daily bottom 112.025. Daily studies are well placed for losses. Bulls

need a close above the 100-DMA to regain the upper hand and above 112.240 to

confirm focus on 112.270-325. A close below the double daily bottom is needed to

shift initial focus to 111.855-945 and overall focus to the 200-WMA (111.581).

GILT TECHS: (H18) Bears Still Need Close Below 125.02

*RES 4: 126.82 Low Aug 24 now resistance 

*RES 3: 126.67 High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125.69 High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.58

*SUP 1: 125.30 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 2: 125.02 Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 3: 124.50 Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 

*SUP 4: 124.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs printed Friday although the pop above the bull

channel top lacked follow through. In saying that, bulls now focus on the

126.00-67 region last seen back in Sept. Layers of support building adds to

bullish confidence. Bears look for a close below 125.02 to ease immediate

bullish pressure and below 124.22 to return focus to 123.62-88 where the 55-DMA

and weekly lows are found.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Above 99.450 Targets 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.483 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450

*SUP 1: 99.430 Highs Dec 12 & 13

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on 99.450 with bulls taking comfort in the closes

above the 100-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.450 to shift

focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted. Support layers are

building with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA (99.407) to ease bullish

pressure and below 99.370 to hint at a move back to 99.300-310 with below 99.350

confirming.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305-310 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.331 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.309 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 &

*SUP 4: 100.299 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 is less than ideal for

bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310

support region is key this week. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus to 100.294-299 where the bull channel base and

100-DMA are located. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to initially

pressure the bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Pressure Returns To Key Support

*RES 4: 124-23 High Dec 6

*RES 3: 124-22+ Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: 124-19+ 55-DMA

*RES 1: 124-13+ High Dec 18

*PRICE: 124-05+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 124-05 Hourly support Dec 13

*SUP 2: 123-29+ Low Dec 13

*SUP 3: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27

*SUP 4: 123-04+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Repeated topside failures ahead of the key 124-19+/23+ resistance

region where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are located sees pressure back on

the 124-05 support. Bears need a close below 124-05 to ease pressure on the

55-DMA and reconfirm focus on the key 123-27/29+ support region. Below 123-27

targets the channel base around 123-04+ today. Bulls now look for a close above

124-13+ to retain focus on 124-19+/23+.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.477 Targets 2017 High

*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 2: 2.426 - High Dec 13 

*RES 1: 2.413 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 2.400 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.380 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.357 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.301 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base has failed to produce a break lower

with focus back on 2.426-437. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.437 to

pressure 2.477 and above this level to target 2017 highs. Support layers

building is less than ideal for bears with a close below 2.380 needed to retain

pressure on 2.344-357. Below 2.344 is needed to confirm a break of the channel

base and shift initial focus to 2.273-301 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Closes Above 55-DMA 

*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3620.01 High Nov 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3609.42

*SUP 1: 3597.05 Hourly support Dec 18 

*SUP 2: 3562.66 Hourly resistance Dec 18 now support 

*SUP 3: 3542.85 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 4: 3535.97 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low)

*COMMENTARY: The weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows continues to

confirm significance with Monday's bounce resulting in closes above the bear

channel top and 55-DMA (3600.80). The 3620.01-3642.10 resistance region remains

key. Bulls need a close above 3620.01 to gain traction topside and above 3642.10

to confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below 3562.66 to

shift pressure lower once more.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]