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Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
19 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 163.25
*RES 4: 164.06 Daily Bull channel top (off Sept low)
*RES 3: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance (Cont)
*RES 2: 163.78 High Dec 11
*RES 1: 163.61 Hourly resistance Dec 15
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.30
*SUP 1: 163.25 Hourly Breakout level Dec 14
*SUP 2: 162.90 Low Dec 14
*SUP 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5
*SUP 4: 162.73 Daily Bull channel base (off Oct 25 low)
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of last week's high is a concern with the
Bollinger top (163.92) and modestly O/B studies key concerns. Bulls continue to
look for a close above 163.78 to confirm focus on bull channel tops
164.06-165.12. The 163.25 support remains key. Bears need a close below to
pressure 162.73-163.05 where the bull channel base off Oct 25 lows and the
21-DMA are located. Below the channel base initially targets 161.49-162.20.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) Pressuring Key Supports
*RES 4: 132.740 High Dec 7
*RES 3: 132.704 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 132.550 Highs Dec 13 & 15
*RES 1: 132.350 Hourly support Dec 15 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.300
*SUP 1: 132.261 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 132.250 Low Dec 4
*SUP 3: 132.124 Daily Bull channel base (Off Oct 25 low)
*SUP 4: 131.970 Monthly low Nov 30
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off to start the new week leaves the contract looking
heavy and pressuring support layers. Bears need a close below the daily bull
channel base to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift immediate pressure to
131.860-970. Daily studies are well placed for a break lower. Bulls now need a
close above 132.35 to gain breathing room and above 163.550 to return focus to
132.740 highs from last week.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On Double Daily Bottom
*RES 4: 112.240 High Dec 7
*RES 3: 112.190 High Dec 11
*RES 2: 112.126 100-DMA
*RES 1: 112.111 55-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.090
*SUP 1: 112.034 Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 112.025 Monthly Lows Oct 26 & Nov 30
*SUP 3: 111.945 Low Aug 8
*SUP 4: 111.855 Low July 21
*COMMENTARY: Bearish confidence grows with the close below the 55-DMA and
100-WMA (112.098) ending bullish hopes and shifting immediate focus to the
double daily bottom 112.025. Daily studies are well placed for losses. Bulls
need a close above the 100-DMA to regain the upper hand and above 112.240 to
confirm focus on 112.270-325. A close below the double daily bottom is needed to
shift initial focus to 111.855-945 and overall focus to the 200-WMA (111.581).
GILT TECHS: (H18) Bears Still Need Close Below 125.02
*RES 4: 126.82 Low Aug 24 now resistance
*RES 3: 126.67 High Sept 14
*RES 2: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*RES 1: 125.69 High Dec 15
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.58
*SUP 1: 125.30 Low Dec 15
*SUP 2: 125.02 Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 3: 124.50 Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support
*SUP 4: 124.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs printed Friday although the pop above the bull
channel top lacked follow through. In saying that, bulls now focus on the
126.00-67 region last seen back in Sept. Layers of support building adds to
bullish confidence. Bears look for a close below 125.02 to ease immediate
bullish pressure and below 124.22 to return focus to 123.62-88 where the 55-DMA
and weekly lows are found.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Above 99.450 Targets 200-DMA
*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14
*RES 3: 99.483 200-DMA
*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA
*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450
*SUP 1: 99.430 Highs Dec 12 & 13
*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support
*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8
*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on 99.450 with bulls taking comfort in the closes
above the 100-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.450 to shift
focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted. Support layers are
building with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA (99.407) to ease bullish
pressure and below 99.370 to hint at a move back to 99.300-310 with below 99.350
confirming.
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305-310 Support Key This Week
*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance
*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016
*RES 2: 100.331 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315
*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 2: 100.309 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 &
*SUP 4: 100.299 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 is less than ideal for
bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310
support region is key this week. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease
bullish pressure and shift focus to 100.294-299 where the bull channel base and
100-DMA are located. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to initially
pressure the bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Pressure Returns To Key Support
*RES 4: 124-23 High Dec 6
*RES 3: 124-22+ Daily Bear channel top
*RES 2: 124-19+ 55-DMA
*RES 1: 124-13+ High Dec 18
*PRICE: 124-05+ @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 124-05 Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 2: 123-29+ Low Dec 13
*SUP 3: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27
*SUP 4: 123-04+ Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Repeated topside failures ahead of the key 124-19+/23+ resistance
region where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are located sees pressure back on
the 124-05 support. Bears need a close below 124-05 to ease pressure on the
55-DMA and reconfirm focus on the key 123-27/29+ support region. Below 123-27
targets the channel base around 123-04+ today. Bulls now look for a close above
124-13+ to retain focus on 124-19+/23+.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.477 Targets 2017 High
*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27
*RES 3: 2.437 - High Nov 30
*RES 2: 2.426 - High Dec 13
*RES 1: 2.413 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: 2.400 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.380 - High Dec 15 now support
*SUP 2: 2.357 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 4: 2.301 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base has failed to produce a break lower
with focus back on 2.426-437. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.437 to
pressure 2.477 and above this level to target 2017 highs. Support layers
building is less than ideal for bears with a close below 2.380 needed to retain
pressure on 2.344-357. Below 2.344 is needed to confirm a break of the channel
base and shift initial focus to 2.273-301 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Closes Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1
*RES 3: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance
*RES 2: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance
*RES 1: 3620.01 High Nov 10
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3609.42
*SUP 1: 3597.05 Hourly support Dec 18
*SUP 2: 3562.66 Hourly resistance Dec 18 now support
*SUP 3: 3542.85 Low Dec 15
*SUP 4: 3535.97 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low)
*COMMENTARY: The weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows continues to
confirm significance with Monday's bounce resulting in closes above the bear
channel top and 55-DMA (3600.80). The 3620.01-3642.10 resistance region remains
key. Bulls need a close above 3620.01 to gain traction topside and above 3642.10
to confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below 3562.66 to
shift pressure lower once more.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.