MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

26 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On Channel Base

*RES 4: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 3: 162.66 Hourly resistance Dec 19

*RES 2: 162.15 Low Dec 19 now resistance

*RES 1: 161.86 High Dec 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.64

*SUP 1: 161.49 Monthly Low Nov 14

*SUP 2: 161.39 Daily Bull channel base (off Sept 28 low)

*SUP 3: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support

*SUP 4: 160.16 Monthly Low Oct 2

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 163.78 high resulted in a sharp sell-off and

bearish closes that see focus now on 161.39-49 where the bull channel base & Nov

monthly low are noted. The Bollinger base (161.63) is the key concern for bears

with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance accumulating are

weighing. Bulls now need a close above 161.86 to ease immediate bearish pressure

and above 162.15 to shift immediate focus back to 162.79.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 130.920-131.350

*RES 4: 131.975 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 

*RES 2: 131.740 High Dec 21 

*RES 1: 131.580 Low Dec 21 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.510

*SUP 1: 131.450 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*SUP 3: 131.263 Weekly Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 130.920 Monthly Low Sept 28 (cont)

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off leaves the contract looking heavy with losses

resulting in bearish closes and focus on 130.920-161.350 where the daily bear

channel base is noted. The Bollinger base (131.666) remains the key concern for

bears and sees the move getting a little ahead of itself. Bulls need a close

above 131.740 to ease bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to hint at a

correction back to 132.240-288.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 3: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 2: 112.000 High Dec 21 

*RES 1: 111.940 Hourly resistance Dec 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.920

*SUP 1: 111.915 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 2: 111.905 Low July 17 (cont) 

*SUP 3: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont) 

*SUP 4: 111.805 2017 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA resulted in a break and close below

112.025 with bearish focus currently on 111.805-840 where 2017 lows are

situated. The Bollinger band base (111.958) is the key concern for bears with

potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance accumulating adds to

bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close above 111.940 to ease bearish

pressure and above 112.035 to shift focus back to key DMAs 112.102-122.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 124.72

*RES 4: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 125.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 125.30 Low Dec 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: 124.72 Hourly resistance Dec 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.60

*SUP 1: 124.11 Low Dec 21 

*SUP 2: 124.00 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 123.62 Low Dec 8 

*SUP 4: 123.50 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs printed recently although the pop above the bull

channel top lacked follow through resulting in a sell-off that sees bullish

pressure eased and focus returned to 123.48-00 where the 55-DMA and weekly lows

are found. Initial resistance remains in place at 124.72 with bulls needing a

close above to ease bearish pressure and above 125.30 to return initial focus to

125.69 Dec highs so far.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 99.410

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.481 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.435

*SUP 1: 99.415 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 99.450 is a concern for bulls with the

Bollinger band top (99.455) limiting follow through and daily studies correcting

from modestly O/B. Bears need a close below 99.410 to ease bullish pressure and

below 99.370 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (99.382) and hint at a move back

to 99.300-310 with below 99.350 to confirm. Bulls need a close above 99.450 to

shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305-310 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.332 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 3: 100.300 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 was less than ideal for

bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310

support region remains key. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease bullish

pressure and shift focus to 100.295-300 where the bull channel base and 100-DMA

are located. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to initially pressure the

bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 122-20+/123-07+

*RES 4: 124-05 Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 123-29+ Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27 now resistance

*RES 1: 123-21 Hourly resistance Dec 20

*PRICE: 123-13 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 2: 123-02+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 122-20+ Monthly Low Mar 14

*SUP 4: 122-14+ 2016 Low Dec 15 2016

*COMMENTARY: Repeated topside failures ahead of the key 124-16+/23+ resistance

region where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are located resulted in a break of

key supports and bears focused on 122-20+/123-07+ where monthly lows and the

bear channel base are noted. The Bollinger base (123-10+) is a concern for bears

with potential to limit follow through. Bulls still need a close above 123-29+

to ease bearish pressure.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.423-472 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 1: 2.534 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high)

*PRICE: 2.492 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.472 - Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a 

*SUP 4: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with

the correction higher seeing a close above 2.477 shift bullish focus to

2.628-641 where 2017 & 2016 highs are situated. Daily studies remain well placed

for gains. Layers of support building has provided bulls confidence. Bears need

a close below 2.472 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below 2.423 to

confirm a correction back to 2.344-376.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Supported Around Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*RES 4: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 3597.05 Hourly support Dec 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3576.49 Hourly resistance Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3553.39

*SUP 1: 3548.76 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low) 

*SUP 2: 3536.39 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3519.35 Low Dec 7 

*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows continues to

confirm significance but the index remains capped ahead of 3620.01-3642.10.

Bulls need a close above 3620.01 to gain traction topside and above 3642.10 to

confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs. The 3467.78-3519.35 support region remains

key. Bears need a close below 3519.35 to confirm a bearish bias and below

3467.78 targets 3363.68 Aug lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]