MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

28 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Focus Now On 162.79-89

*RES 4: 163.27 Low Dec 18 now resistance

*RES 3: 162.89 21-DMA

*RES 2: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 1: 162.66 Hourly resistance Dec 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.36

*SUP 1: 162.31 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 162.03 Hourly resistance Dec 27 now support

*SUP 3: 161.49 Monthly Low Nov 14

*SUP 4: 161.72 Daily Bull channel base (off Sept 28 low)

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to trouble the bull channel base off Sept lows with

the aggressive bounce and bullish close easing bearish pressure and returning

immediate focus to 162.79-89. Bull snow need a close above the 21-DMA to shift

focus back to tests of 163.78 Dec highs. Support layers have followed the

contract higher. Bears now need a close below 162.03 to ease bullish pressure

and return focus to tests of the bull channel base.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bounces From Channel Base

*RES 4: 132.254 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 131.984 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.740 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.700

*SUP 1: 131.530 Hourly support Dec 27

*SUP 2: 131.430 Daily Bear channel base, Low Dec 27

*SUP 3: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*SUP 4: 131.268 Weekly Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with a bounce from the

bear channel base Wednesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above 131.740 to

ease bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to hint at a correction back to

132.240-288. While 131.740 caps bears remain focused on 130.920-131.350 where

Nov lows are noted. The Bollinger base (131.587) remains the key concern for

bears.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bounces Ahead Of 2017 Low

*RES 4: 112.096 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.965

*SUP 1: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: 111.850 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont) 

*SUP 4: 111.805 2017 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low eased bearish pressure

with bulls now needing a close above 112.035 to shift focus to 112.096-120 where

key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case

for a bigger correction. Bears now need a close below 111.915 to maintain focus

on 111.805-840 where 2017 lows are situated. The Bollinger base (111.940)

remains a concern for bears.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Focus Back On Bull Channel Top

*RES 4: 126.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 125.86 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 125.69 High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.34

*SUP 1: 124.90 Hourly resistance Dec 27 now support 

*SUP 2: 124.57 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: 124.11 Low Dec 21 

*SUP 4: 124.04 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand following the recovery from ahead of

the 55-DMA and aggressive rally Wednesday. Bulls now focus on the 125.69-00

region where the Dec high and bull channel top are situated. Daily studies are

well placed for gains. Bears now need a close below 124.57 to ease bullish

pressure and shift pressure back to 124.04-11 where the 55-DMA remains.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 99.410

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.481 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.440

*SUP 1: 99.416 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 99.450 is a concern for bulls with the

Bollinger band top (99.458) limiting follow through and daily studies correcting

from modestly O/B. Bears need a close below 99.410 to ease bullish pressure and

below 99.370 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (99.384) and hint at a move back

to 99.300-310 with below 99.350 to confirm. Bulls need a close above 99.450 to

shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305-310 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.333 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 3: 100.301 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 was less than ideal for

bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310

support region remains key. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease bullish

pressure and shift focus to 100.295-301 where the bull channel base and 100-DMA

are located. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to initially pressure the

bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 123-21+

*RES 4: 124-23 High Dec 6

*RES 3: 124-18+ Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: 124-15+ 55-DMA

*RES 1: 124-03 21-DMA

*PRICE: 123-28 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-21+ High Dec 27 now support

*SUP 2: 123-12+ Low Dec 21

*SUP 3: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 4: 123-00+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce Wednesday that sees bearish

pressure eased and focus return to layers of resistance 124-03/23 where 21 &

55-DMAs and the bear channel top are situated. Bulls need a close above 124-23

to hint at a move back to 125-25+. The 123-21+ support is now key. Bears need a

close below this level to reconfirm dominance and return pressure to 123-00+/12+

where the bear channel base is noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Now On 2.344-398

*RES 4: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 3: 2.479 - High Dec 27 

*RES 2: 2.459 - Low Dec 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.432 - Hourly resistance Dec 27

*PRICE: 2.425 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.398 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.372 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.299 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the weekly bear channel top (2.534) combined

with waning momentum provided the impetus for a correction that eases bullish

pressure. Focus returns to 2.344-398 where key DMAs and the bull channel base

are noted. Bears now need a close below 2.344 to confirm breaks and initially

pressure the 200-DMA (2.299). Bulls now need a close above 2.432 to gain

breathing room and above 2.479 to shift focus higher.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Supported Around Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*RES 4: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 3597.05 Hourly support Dec 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3576.49 Hourly resistance Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3550.17

*SUP 1: 3548.76 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low) 

*SUP 2: 3536.95 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3519.35 Low Dec 7 

*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows continues to

confirm significance but the index remains capped ahead of 3620.01-3642.10.

Bulls need a close above 3620.01 to gain traction topside and above 3642.10 to

confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs. The 3467.78-3519.35 support region remains

key. Bears need a close below 3519.35 to confirm a bearish bias and below

3467.78 targets 3363.68 Aug lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]