MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

30 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Weekly Close Below 200-WMA To Target 154.81

*RES 4: 160.77 21-DMA

*RES 3: 160.36 High Jan 26

*RES 2: 160.09 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 1: 159.66 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.98

*SUP 1: 158.66 2018 Low Jan 29

*SUP 2: 158.63 200-WMA

*SUP 3: 157.52 Low Dec 29 2015

*SUP 4: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*COMMENTARY: Bears remain firmly in control with immediate focus on the 200-WMA.

Bears look for a weekly close below the 200-WMA to 154.81 Nov 2015 monthly lows

although layers of support 156.78-157.52 may slow the move. O/S daily studies

and the Bollinger base (159.33) remain concerns for bears. In saying that, bulls

now need a close above 159.66 to ease bearish pressure and above 160.36 to

pressure 160.77-161.13 where the 21-DMA is situated.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Below 130.320 Targets 128.820-129.46

*RES 4: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 130.950 High Jan 26 

*RES 2: 130.770 Hourly resistance Jan 26 

*RES 1: 130.630 Low Jan 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.530

*SUP 1: 130.340 2018 Low Jan 29

*SUP 2: 130.320 Monthly High Dec 3 2015 now support

*SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*SUP 4: 128.820 Monthly Low Dec 4 2015

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows continue Friday with the Bollinger base

(130.599) the key concern given potential to limit follow through. In saying

that, immediate focus is now on the break of 130.320 needed to shift focus to

128.82-129.46 last seen in Dec 2015. Initial resistance is noted at 130.630 with

bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above 131.050 to target

a correction back to 131.281-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Above 111.950 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 111.900 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.870 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.810

*SUP 1: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 3: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016 

*SUP 4: 111.624 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to gain traction above the 21-DMA (111.914) last week

with Monday's sell-off resulting in fresh 2018 & 18mth lows. The lack of follow

through is less than ideal with bears focused on the 200-WMA and below 111.750

to add weight to their case. Bulls need a close above 111.835 to ease bearish

pressure and above 111.950 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear channel top

(111.900) to shift focus to 112.000-055 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 123.43 High Jan 24 

*RES 3: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: 123.12 Low Nov 30 now resistance 

*RES 1: 122.61 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.41

*SUP 1: 122.37 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 122.28 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 3: 121.39 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016

*COMMENTARY: The contract remained capped ahead of key DMAs in past weeks with

the sell-off Wednesday leaving H18 looking a little heavy. Fresh 2018 & 18mth

lows to start the week confirm initial focus on the 200-WMA. Bears need a close

below the 200-WMA to target 118.93-120.54 where 2016 monthly lows are situated.

Bulls now look for a close above 122.61 to gain breathing room and above 123.43

to shift focus to 123.82-124.50.

SHORT-STELRING TECHS: (H18) Pressure Remains On 55-DMA

*RES 4: 99.475 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.443 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.425

*SUP 1: 99.421 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.397 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level held firm with topside failures finally

taking their toll and Thursday's bearish close seeing focus back to 55 &

100-DMAs. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to target 99.300-310 with

below 99.390 to add weight to the case. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to shift focus to 99.475-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 & 100.315 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.318 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Jan 2018

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.307) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

The pops above 21 & 55-DMAs lack follow through with bulls still needing a close

above 100.315 to confirm a break, ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus

to 100.320-325. Daily studies lingering at modestly O/B levels is less than

ideal for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus ON 120-25+

*RES 4: 122-20  Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 122-10+ Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 2: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 121-31  Low Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 121-19 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 121-14  Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 121-11  Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*SUP 4: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows have lacked a little follow through

which is a concern given daily studies overdue a correction from O/S levels and

the Bollinger base limiting follow through. Bulls need a close above 122-04+ to

hint at a correction to 123-01+/123-20 with above 122-20 to confirm. Bears now

initially focus on 120-25+ while 122-20 caps but need a close below 121-18 to

add weight to their case.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Initial Focus On 2.748-912

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.792 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014

*PRICE: 2.722 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.690 - Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support has now provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+

year highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.748-912 and overall focus on 3.041

2014 highs (Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.744) is a concern and currently

limits follow through. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close

below 2.676 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to

2.568-609 where key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3614.06

*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 3687.29 2018 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 3674.50 High Jan 24 

*RES 1: 3659.33 High Jan 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3643.04

*SUP 1: 3636.05 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 3614.06 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 3: 3607.41 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3603.47 Low Jan 15

*COMMENTARY: Bulls still need a close above 3659.33 to pressure 2018 highs and

return focus to tests of 2017 highs. Correcting O/B studies remain a concern for

bulls. Layers of support remain 3552.83-3603.47 where key DMAs are situated.

Bears look for a close below 3614.06 to pressure key DMAs and below the 200-DMA

to add weight to the case for a correction back to 2018 lows (3467.78).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]