MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

31 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 159.66

*RES 4: 160.36 High Jan 26

*RES 3: 160.09 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 2: 159.66 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 159.18 High Jan 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.83

*SUP 1: 158.66 2018 Low Jan 29

*SUP 2: 158.63 200-WMA

*SUP 3: 157.52 Low Dec 29 2015

*SUP 4: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*COMMENTARY: Bears remain firmly in control with immediate focus on the 200-WMA.

Bears look for a weekly close below the 200-WMA to target 154.81 Nov 2015

monthly lows although layers of support 156.78-157.52 may slow the move. O/S

daily studies and the Bollinger base (159.33) remain concerns for bears. Bulls

need a close above 159.66 to ease bearish pressure and above 160.36 to pressure

160.64-161.13 where the 21-DMA is situated.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Below 130.320 Targets 128.820-129.460

*RES 4: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 130.950 High Jan 26 

*RES 2: 130.770 Hourly resistance Jan 26 

*RES 1: 130.630 Low Jan 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.470

*SUP 1: 130.340 2018 Low Jan 29

*SUP 2: 130.320 Monthly High Dec 3 2015 now support

*SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*SUP 4: 128.820 Monthly Low Dec 4 2015

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows continued Friday with the Bollinger base

(130.484) the key concern given potential to limit follow through. In saying

that, immediate focus is now on the break of 130.320 needed to shift focus to

128.82-129.46 last seen in Dec 2015. Initial resistance is noted at 130.630 with

bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above 131.050 to target

a correction back to 131.228-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Above 111.950 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 111.900 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.870 Hourly resistance Jan 26 

*RES 1: 111.845 High Jan 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.815

*SUP 1: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 3: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016 

*SUP 4: 111.624 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to gain traction above the 21-DMA (111.906) last week

with Monday's sell-off resulting in fresh 2018 & 18mth lows. The lack of follow

through is less than ideal with bears focused on the 200-WMA and below 111.750

to add weight to their case. Bulls need a close above 111.835 to ease bearish

pressure and above 111.950 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear channel top

(111.900) to shift focus to 112.000-055 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 122.65

*RES 4: 123.43 High Jan 24 

*RES 3: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: 123.12 Low Nov 30 now resistance 

*RES 1: 122.65 High Jan 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.35

*SUP 1: 122.28 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 122.23 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 121.39 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016

*COMMENTARY: The contract remained capped ahead of key DMAs in past weeks with

the sell-off last week leaving H18 looking a little heavy. Fresh 2018 & 18mth

lows to start the week confirmed initial focus on the 200-WMA. Bears need a

close below the 200-WMA to target 118.93-120.54 where 2016 monthly lows are

situated. Bulls now look for a close above 122.65 to gain breathing room and

above 123.43 to shift focus to 123.71-124.50.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Pressure Remains On 55-DMA

*RES 4: 99.473 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.442 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.430

*SUP 1: 99.422 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.395 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level held firm with topside failures finally

taking their toll and Thursday's bearish close seeing focus back to 55 &

100-DMAs. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to target 99.300-310 with

below 99.390 to add weight to the case. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to shift focus to 99.474-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305-310 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.318 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan

*SUP 2: 100.307 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 4: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.307) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

The pops above 21 & 55-DMAs lack follow through with bulls now needing a close

above 100.320 to confirm a break, ease bearish pressure and above 100.325 to

target 100.340-341 where the bull channel top is noted. Daily studies lingering

at modestly O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On 120-25+

*RES 4: 122-20  Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 122-10+ Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 2: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 121-31  Low Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 121-24 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 121-17  2018 Low Jan 30

*SUP 2: 121-12  Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 121-08+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows have lacked a little follow through

which is a concern given daily studies overdue a correction from O/S levels and

the Bollinger base limiting follow through. Bulls need a close above 122-04+ to

hint at a correction to 123-05+/123-20 with above the 21-DMA (122-22+) to

confirm. Bears initially focus on 120-25+ while the 21-DMA caps but need a close

below 121-17 to add weight to their case.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Initial Focus On 2.748-912

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.797 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014

*PRICE: 2.709 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.690 - Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+ year highs

with immediate bullish focus on 2.748-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014 highs

(Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.754) is a concern and currently limits follow

through. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.676

to ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to 2.571-609

where key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Back on Key DMAs

*RES 4: 3687.29 2018 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 3674.50 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: 3659.33 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: 3636.05 Low Jan 29 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3606.75

*SUP 1: 3588.16 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3584.24 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3533.66 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3520.84 Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: Having failed to trouble 2017 highs on the recovery from 2018 lows

the index is again looking a little offered following the close below the 21-DMA

(3612.30). Focus returns to key DMAs with bears needing a close below the

200-DMA to add weight to the case for a move lower targeting 2018 lows. Bulls

now need a close above 3636.05 to gain breathing room and above 2018 highs to

initially test 2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]