MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

13 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) 158.65-159.66 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 159.33 High Jan 31

*RES 3: 158.92 High Feb 6

*RES 2: 158.65 High Feb 9

*RES 1: 158.17 High Feb 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.97

*SUP 1: 157.54 Low Feb 12

*SUP 2: 157.26 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*SUP 4: 156.57 Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (157.10) remain

concerns for bears who are focused on 156.57-78 where the weekly bear channel

base is located. A close below 154.81 then targets 148.23 2015 lows. Bulls still

look for a close above 158.65 to ease bearish pressure and above 159.66 to

confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (159.37) and the daily bear channel top (159.55),

shifting focus to 161.13-55 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 130.990 High Feb 5 

*RES 3: 130.792 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 130.739 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 130.710 High Feb 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.540

*SUP 1: 130.360 Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: 130.160 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 129.887 Daily bear channel base

*SUP 4: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA and bear channel top confirmed significance capping the

aggressive bounce last Monday resulting in fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows Thursday. The

lack of follow through Thursday was a concern but daily studies at more neutral

levels provides bears hope. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above 131.050 to shift focus to 131.450-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 21-DMA Supporting, 111.950 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 111.978 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 111.949 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 111.920 High Feb 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.905

*SUP 1: 111.870 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 111.835 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 111.800 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: 111.950 resistance confirmed significance with the recovery from

2018 lows capped ahead. Failure to retest 2018 lows sees the contract work its

way back towards key resistance. Bulls look for a close above 111.950 to shift

initial focus to 111.978-112.035 and above 112.035 to target 112.240 Dec highs.

Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and reconfirm

focus on tests of 2018 lows with overall focus on the 200-WMA (111.639).

GILT TECHS: (H18) 121.69-122.65 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 122.28 Low Jan 29 now resistance 

*RES 3: 121.97 High Feb 7 

*RES 2: 121.69 High Feb 9 

*RES 1: 121.26 High Feb 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.14

*SUP 1: 120.76 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 2: 120.71 Hourly support Feb 8 

*SUP 3: 120.48 2018 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 119.63 Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of 122.28 resulted in fresh 2018 & nearly

2 year lows Thursday although follow through has been lacking with the Bollinger

base (120.48) and O/S studies key concerns for bears. Bulls look for a close

above 121.69 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 122.65 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (122.49) and shift in initial focus to 123.12-81 where 55 &

100-DMAs are noted.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.390 & 99.450 Major Levels

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*RES 2: 99.427 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.415 High Feb 9 & 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.415

*SUP 1: 99.405 Hourly support Feb 8, Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: 99.395 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: 99.435 recently provided the cap for a dip below the 100-DMA

Thursday that confirmed significance of the 99.390 support by bouncing from this

level. Bears need a close below 99.390 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and

target 99.300-310. Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.450 to confirm a

shift in focus to 99.468-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Below 100.305 Targets 100.285-295

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5, Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.280 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support remains key with repeated attempts to break

lower thwarted. The 100.320-325 resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a

close above 100.325 to target 100.340 last seen in Oct 2016. Bears continue to

look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target 100.285-295.

Narrowing Bollinger bands hint at a break out in the near future.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 121-23

*RES 4: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 122-05+ Hourly resistance Feb 6a

*RES 2: 121-23 Hourly resistance Feb 6, 21-DMA

*RES 1: 121-08 Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-28+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-17 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 2: 120-12+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24 Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

contract rejected ahead of 122-20 last week. The break below 121-10+ reconfirmed

initial focus to 2018 lows and then below 120-17 to target the 117-29/119-24

support region where levels last seen in 2011 are noted. Bulls need a close

above 121-23 to ease bearish pressure and above 122-20 to shift initial focus to

123-03+/20 where the 55-DMA (123-03+) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Key Concern

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 2: 2.902 - 2018 High Feb 12 

*RES 1: 2.873 - Hourly support Feb 12 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.859 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.828 - Low Feb 12 

*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 4: 2.722 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield

recovering from around the 21-DMA last week to trade at fresh 2018 & 4 year

highs. Topside follow through has been lacking but bulls now focus attention on

the key 3.041 2014 highs. Support layers are building with bears needing a close

below 2.828 to gain breathing room and below 2.741 to shift initial focus back

to 2.691-722 where the 21-DMA is located.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Very O/S Daily Studies A Worry For Bears

*RES 4: 3474.86 Low Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3469.23 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3428.11 Hourly resistance Feb 8 

*RES 1: 3387.07 High Feb 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3368.25

*SUP 1: 3362.23 Hourly resistance Feb 9 now support 

*SUP 2: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 3298.91 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3294.76 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from very O/S levels remain the

key concern for bears and increases the risk of a correction back to the

3469.23-3474.85 region. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3474.86 to

initially target DMAs clustered 3549.08-3583.21. The 200-WMA remains key

support. Bears continue to look for a close below the 200-WMA to target 2017

lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]