MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

16 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

     BUND TECHS: (H18) 158.65-159.66 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 159.00 21-DMA

*RES 3: 158.65 High Feb 9

*RES 2: 158.44 High Feb 13

*RES 1: 158.13 Alternating hourly support/resistance Feb 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.76

*SUP 1: 157.42 Low Feb 15

*SUP 2: 157.26 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*SUP 4: 156.45 Weekly Bear channel base (Off 2016 High)

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 158.65-159.66 resistance region sees bears

firmly in control and focused on 156.57-78 where the weekly bear channel base is

located. A close below 154.81 (Nov 2015 monthly low) then targets 148.23 2015

lows. Bulls still look for a close above 158.65 to ease bearish pressure and

above 159.66 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and the daily bear channel top

(159.32), shifting focus to 160.98-55 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 130.990 High Feb 5 

*RES 3: 130.710 High Feb 9, 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 130.670 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 130.580 Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.460

*SUP 1: 130.340 Low Feb 15

*SUP 2: 130.160 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 130.060 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 129.740 Daily bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA and bear channel top continue to confirm significance

having capped again Wednesday. The contract remains offered with bears needing a

close below 130.360 to reconfirm focus on the daily bear channel base although

the Bollinger base may limit follow through. Bulls still need a close above the

21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 131.050 to shift focus to 131.450-520

where the 55-DMA (131.460) is noted.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Downside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 111.970 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 111.925 High Feb 13 

*RES 1: 111.895 Low Feb 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.870

*SUP 1: 111.840 Low Feb 15 

*SUP 2: 111.835 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 111.800 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: H18 is again looking heavy although the lack of follow through

below the 21-DMA (111.87) is a concern. Bears now need a close below 111.835 to

reconfirm focus on tests of 2018 lows with overall focus then reconfirmed on the

200-WMA (111.639). Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a shift

higher in focus and above 112.035 to target 112.24 Dec highs.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Above 121.33 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 121.97 High Feb 7 

*RES 3: 121.69 High Feb 9 

*RES 2: 121.33 High Feb 13 

*RES 1: 120.99 Hourly support Feb 14 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 120.60

*SUP 1: 120.13 2018 Low Feb 15 

*SUP 2: 119.58 Weekly Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: 119.35 Low Apr 29 2016 

*SUP 4: 118.93 Monthly Low Apr 26 2016

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of 122.28 sees repeated 2018 & nearly

2year lows although follow through has been lacking with the Bollinger base

(120.08) and O/S studies key concerns for bears. Bulls look for a close above

121.33 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 122.28 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA (122.55) and shift in initial focus to 123.12-82 where 55 & 100-DMAs

are noted. Bears continue to target the weekly bear channel base.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bears Targeting 99.300-310

*RES 4: 99.427 55-DMA, 21-DMA

*RES 3: 99.415 Highs Feb 9 & 12

*RES 2: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.385

*SUP 1: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 99.310 Monthly Low Nov 1

*SUP 4: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*COMMENTARY: 99.435 recently provided the cap for a move that now sees overall

bearish focus on 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies have

room to move before O/S is an issue. Layers of resistance are in place with

bulls needing a close above 99.415 to ease bearish pressure and above 99.450 to

end bearish hopes and initially target the 200-DMA (99.466).

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Below 100.305 Targets 100.285-295

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Lows Dec, Jan & Feb

*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.285 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support remains key with repeated attempts to break

lower thwarted so far and leaving this level as the 2018 low so far. Bears

continue to look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target

100.285-295.The 100.320-325 resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a

close above 100.325 to target 100.340 last seen in Oct 2016.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 120-27

*RES 4: 121-23  Hourly resistance Feb 6

*RES 3: 121-08  Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*RES 2: 120-27  Low Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 120-20  Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: 120-12 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-01  2018 Low Feb 15

*SUP 2: 120-00+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with H18 remaining capped ahead of

121-08 and the sell-off resulting in fresh 2018 & 7Yr lows. Follow through has

been lacking on the dip below the bear channel base with bears focused on

117-29/119-24 where levels last seen in 2011 are noted. Layers of resistance

have followed H18 lower. Bulls look for a close above 120-27 to gain breathing

room and above 121-23 to hint at a correction to 122-20/123-05+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 1: 2.944 - 2018 High Feb 15

*PRICE: 2.908 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.882 - Low Feb 18 

*SUP 2: 2.844 - Hourly breakout level Feb 14 

*SUP 3: 2.808 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand this week with immediate focus now on

the 3.041 2014 high. A close above this level sees initial focus on 3.073-223

where July 2011 monthly highs are situated. O/B studies and the Bollinger top

(2.968) are concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears need a close below 2.844

to gain breathing room and below 2.808 to shift initial focus to 2.758-786 where

the 21-DMA is noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Target Correction To 3469.23 While 3368.10 Supports

*RES 4: 3474.86 Low Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3469.23 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3428.11 Hourly resistance Feb 8 

*RES 1: 3414.30 High Feb 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3389.6

*SUP 1: 3368.10 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 3298.92 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3294.77 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from very O/S levels remain the

key concern for bears and increases the risk of a correction back to

3469.23-3474.86 as does the aggressive bounce Wednesday. Initial support remains

at 3368.10 with bears needing a close below to end postpone correction talk and

retain focus on the 200-WMA. Bears need a close below the 200-WMA to target 2017

lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]