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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

27 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Bollinger Top Limiting Follow Through
*RES 4: 161.16 100-DMA
*RES 3: 160.44 55-DMA
*RES 2: 160.36 High Jan 26
*RES 1: 159.67 High Feb 26
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.37
*SUP 1: 159.23 Hourly resistance Feb 23 now support
*SUP 2: 158.92 Hourly resistance Feb 23a now support
*SUP 3: 158.52 Hourly support Feb 22
*SUP 4: 158.17 Low Feb 21
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from Friday's gains although the lack of follow
through on the marginal break of 159.67 is less than ideal with daily studies
heading towards O/B. The Bollinger top (159.44) currently limits follow through.
Bears look for a close below 159.23 to ease bullish pressure and below 158.92 to
hint at a move back to 157.42 with below 158.17 to confirm. A close above 159.67
is now needed to target 160.36-161.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.
     BOBL TECHS: (H18) 130.850 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 
*RES 3: 131.290 High Jan 24 
*RES 2: 131.257 55-DMA 
*RES 1: 131.120 Low Jan 24 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.970
*SUP 1: 130.850 High Feb 21 now support
*SUP 2: 130.610 Lows Feb 21 & 22
*SUP 3: 130.594 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 130.480 Low Feb 20
*COMMENTARY: The break of 131.050 lacked follow through Monday with bulls now
needing a close above 131.290 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial
focus to 131.450-520. The Bollinger top (130.956) is the key concern and
currently limits follow through. Bears continue to look for a close below
130.850 to ease bullish pressure, Below the 21-DMA is needed to return initial
focus to 130.160 2018 lows.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 111.930 Support Confirms Significance
*RES 4: 112.035 High Dec 20 
*RES 3: 112.017 100-DMA 
*RES 2: 112.000 2018 Highs Jan 3 & 9 
*RES 1: 111.970 High Feb 26
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.940
*SUP 1: 111.930 High Feb 20 - 22 now support 
*SUP 2: 111.895 Low Feb 21 
*SUP 3: 111.876 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 111.845 Low Feb 15
*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA (111.944) has so far been brief with
the Bollinger top (111.961) limiting follow through. In saying that, the 111.930
support confirmed significance with bears needling a close below to ease bullish
pressure. Below the 21-DMA is then needed to hint at a move back to 111.765 with
below 111.845 to confirm. While 111.930 supports bulls focus on 112.000-035 with
a close above to initially target 112.110.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 120.29
*RES 4: 122.59 100-DMA 
*RES 3: 122.35 55-DMA 
*RES 2: 121.83 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: 121.55 High Jan 30, Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.12
*SUP 1: 120.69 Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 2: 120.29 Low Feb 22 
*SUP 3: 119.83 Low Feb 20 
*SUP 4: 119.29 Monthly Low Feb 15
*COMMENTARY: M18 continues to gain traction above the 21-DMA (120.55) with bulls
looking for a close above 121.55 to add support to the case for a move targeting
55 & 100-DMAs. The Bollinger top lurking above is likely to be an issue and
limit follow through when challenged. Bears now need a close below 120.29 to
ease bullish pressure and see focus return to tests of 119.29 Feb lows so far
for M18.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus on 99.180-270
*RES 4: 99.401 21-DMA
*RES 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance
*RES 2: 99.350 High Feb 23
*RES 1: 99.330 Low Feb 22 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.310
*SUP 1: 99.290 2018 Low Feb 26
*SUP 2: 99.270 2014 Low Sept 18 2014
*SUP 3: 99.210 Monthly Lows June/July 2012
*SUP 4: 99.180 Monthly High Aug 2011 now support
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr lows were seen Monday but the lack of follow
through is less than ideal when combined with O/S daily studies and the
Bollinger band base at 99.324. Bears currently focus on the 99.180-270 region
last seen between Aug 2011 & Sept 2014. Initial resistance remains at 99.330
with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. A close above 99.350 is
needed to target a correction back to 99.375-415.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Bears Focused On 100.275-295
*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 3: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb 
*RES 2: 100.312 - 55-DMA 
*RES 1: 100.305 - High Feb 23 & 26
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300
*SUP 1: 100.295 - Low Dec 1, 2018 Low Feb 23 & 26
*SUP 2: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct
*SUP 3: 100.280 - Low Oct 6
*SUP 4: 100.275 - Monthly Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support has finally been broken although follow through
has been lacking. In saying that, focus has shifted to layers of support
100.275-295 where the 200-DMA is situated. Layers of resistance have accumulated
with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to confirm breaks of DMAs and return
focus to 100.320-325.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 121-08/23+ Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: 121-23+ Daily Bear channel top (off Dec 29 High)
*RES 3: 121-08  Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 2: 121-00+ High Feb 26
*RES 1: 120-29+ 21-DMA
*PRICE: 120-25 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-24  Hourly support Feb 26
*SUP 2: 120-15+ High Feb 22 now support
*SUP 3: 120-01  2018 Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through Thursday left a double daily bottom
120-01/02 with the recovery capped around the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close
above 121-08 to gain breathing room and above the bear channel top to hint at a
correction to 122-14+/20. Layers of support are accumulating with bears now
needing a close below 120-15+ to retain focus on 119-20+/24 where the bear
channel base is situated.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Supported Around 21-DMA
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 
*RES 2: 2.904 - Low Feb 22 now resistance 
*RES 1: 2.877 - Hourly resistance Feb 23
*PRICE: 2.864 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.827 - Hourly breakout level Feb 14 
*SUP 2: 2.808 - Low Feb 14 
*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs is less than
ideal for bulls who are focused on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above 3.041 is
needed to initially focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are
situated. Bulls take comfort in Monday's bounce with above 2.904 needed to
reconfirm focus on 3.041. Bears need a close below 2.758 to target 2.609-648
with the 55-DMA noted at 2.614.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3368.10 & 3474.85 Levels Key This Week
*RES 4: 3567.86 Low Feb 2 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3538.00 200-DMA 
*RES 2: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance 
*RES 1: 3474.85 Low Feb 5 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3463.18
*SUP 1: 3443.75 High Feb 8 now support 
*SUP 2: 3420.59 Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 
*SUP 3: 3393.28 Low Feb 22 
*SUP 4: 3368.10 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support
*COMMENTARY: The index remains supported on dips with immediate focus on
3474.85. Bulls still need a close above 3474.85 to initially target DMAs in the
3523.28-3600.36 region. Initial support is now noted at 3443.75 with bears
needing a close below to ease bullish pressure. A close below 3368.10 is still
needed by bears to return focus to the 200-WMA (3297.95). Bears then need a
close below the 200-WMA to target 2017 lows (3214.31).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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