MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

29 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 158.12-159.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 161.69 Weekly Bear channel top off Sept High

*RES 3: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 2: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 159.69 High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.18

*SUP 1: 159.01 High Mar 23 now support

*SUP 2: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 3: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*SUP 4: 158.12 Hourly resistance Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls continue to gain confidence with bullish focus on layers of

resistance 160.26-160.98 and a close above needed to target 161.66-162.79 where

55 & 100-WMAs and the bear channel top are located. O/B daily studies remain the

key concern for bulls. Bears still need a close below 159.01 to ease bullish

pressure and below 158.12 to shift focus back to 156.88-157.67 where the 55-DMA

is noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 131.06

*RES 4: 131.533 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 131.300 High Mar 28 

*RES 1: 131.282 100-WMA (Cont)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.130

*SUP 1: 131.060 High Mar 23 now support

*SUP 2: 130.860 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 3: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*SUP 4: 130.510 Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have gained traction above the 100-DMA (130.916) and managed

to make a pop above the 100-WMA but follow through is lacking. A close above the

100-WMA was last seen in Dec 2017. Bulls look for a close above the 100-WMA to

pressure 131.450-533. Bears need a close below 131.060 to ease bullish pressure

and below 130.760 to shift initial focus back to 130.210-510 where the 55-DMA is

located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.915-930 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 112.00 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.950

*SUP 1: 111.930 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: 111.915 High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from Thursday's gains with the close above

111.915 reconfirming bullish momentum and above 111.945 confirming initial focus

on 112.050/065. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence

although daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal. In saying that, bears

look for a close below 111.915 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus

back to 111.805-869 where the 21-DMA (111.869) is located.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Immediate Focus On 123.12

*RES 4: 124.11 Low Dec 21 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 123.12 Bull channel top, Low Nov 30 now resistance 

*RES 1: 122.72 High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.65

*SUP 1: 122.26 High Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: 121.60 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.40 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 121.04 Low Mar 22

*COMMENTARY: Bulls finally managed a close above the 100-DMA (122.38) that adds

support to the bullish case for tests of 123.12 where Nov lows and the bull

channel top are located. Overall bulls now need a close 124.11 to 125.64-126.05

where 55 & 100-WMAs are situated. Bears now look for a close below 122.26 to

ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to 21 & 55-DMAs.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Focus On 98.930-990

*RES 4: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 3: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 2: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 1: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.100

*SUP 1: 99.060 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 2: 99.010 Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 98.990 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*SUP 4: 98.930 Monthly Low April 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & nearly 2yr lows leave the contract looking a

little heavy and bears currently focused on 98.930 April 2016 monthly lows. The

99.150-170 resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close above this region

to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to 99.200-225 where the 55-DMA is

noted. Above the 55-DMA (99.225) hints at a move back to 2018 highs with above

99.270 to confirm.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) O/B Daily Studies, 100.285 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 2: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 4: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 highs which add support to the

case for a move targeting 100.320-340. Correcting O/B daily studies and daily

momentum divergence are a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears continue to

look for a close below 100.285 to gain breathing room and below 100.275 to

pressure DMAs 100.266-267 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 21 & 55-DMAs Key Supports

*RES 4: 122-18+ 21-WMA

*RES 3: 122-07+ 100-DMA

*RES 2: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 1: 121-09  High Mar 28

*PRICE: 120-30 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-23+ 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 120-11  Low Mar 26 & 27, 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 120-03  Low Mar 22

*SUP 4: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb

*COMMENTARY: Bulls are struggling to gain traction above the 55-DMA with a lack

of topside follow through noted Wednesday. Bears now look for a close below the

55-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

119-14/21+. Bulls now need a close above 121-09 to confirm traction and focus on

122-02/07+ where the 100-DMA is noted. The Bollinger top (120-31+) is the key

concern for bulls.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: 2.815 - Low Mar 26 

*RES 1: 2.799 - Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.777 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.743 - Low Mar 28 

*SUP 2: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.611 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take a little comfort as the yield struggles to gain traction

below the 55-DMA (2.790) and downside follow through on fresh 2mth lows lacking

Wednesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.815 to gain breathing room

and above 2.859 to shift focus higher. While 2.815 caps bears now focus on

2.585-611 where the 100-DMA is noted with a close below 2.743 needed to add

weight to their case.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 3348.19

*RES 4: 3448.63 High Mar 16 

*RES 3: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19 

*RES 2: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3348.19 Hourly resistance Mar 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3331.25

*SUP 1: 3286.41 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 3261.86 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: 3252.29 High Feb 8 2017 now support 

*SUP 4: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: Bears are struggling to gain traction below 100 (3321.27) & 200

(3300.67) WMAs following recent 2018 & 13mth lows that shifted immediate focus

to the 2017 low. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3348.19 to ease

bearish pressure and above 3476.21 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (3463.18)

and shift initial focus to 100 (3513.84) & 200 (3517.60) DMAs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]