MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

4 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 159.01

*RES 4: 161.54 Weekly Bear channel top off Sept High

*RES 3: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 2: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 159.69 High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.18

*SUP 1: 159.07 Low Apr 3

*SUP 2: 159.01 High Mar 23 now support

*SUP 3: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around 159.69 remains a concern with daily studies

looking to correct from O/B levels. The 159.01 support remains key. Bears still

need a close below 159.01 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back

to layers of support 158.05-55 where the 100-DMA is noted. While 159.01 supports

bulls focus on layers of resistance 160.26-160.98 and a close above needed to

target 161.58-162.79 where 55 & 100-WMAs and the bear channel top are located.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Pressure Back On 131.06 Support

*RES 4: 131.689 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 1: 131.261 100-WMA (Cont)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.130

*SUP 1: 131.100 Low Mar 28

*SUP 2: 131.060 High Mar 23 now support

*SUP 3: 130.860 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs lacked follow through above the 100-WMA Tuesday

with the contract looking a little offered and pressure back on 131.060. Bears

need a close below 131.060 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.760 to shift

initial focus back to 130.210-510 where the 55-DMA (130.272) is located. Bulls

look for a close above 131.310 to confirm a break of the 100-WMA and focus on

131.450-689.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.915-930 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 112.00 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.945

*SUP 1: 111.930 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: 111.915 High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from Thursday's gains with the close above

111.915 reconfirming bullish momentum and above 111.945 confirming initial focus

on 112.050/065.Topside hesitation remains a concern with daily studies

correcting from O/B. In saying that, bears still look for a close below 111.915

to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to 111.855-886 where the

21-DMA (111.873) is located.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 122.26

*RES 4: 124.11 Low Dec 21 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 123.25 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 122.93 High Mar 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.72

*SUP 1: 122.26 High Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: 121.74 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.39 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 121.04 Low Mar 22

*COMMENTARY: Bulls finally managed a close above the 100-DMA (122.38) last week

that added support to the bullish case for tests of the daily bull channel top

coming in around 123.25 today. Overall bulls now need a close above 124.11 to

125.61-126.07 where 55 & 100-WMAs are situated. Bears continue to look for a

close below 122.26 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to 21

& 55-DMAs.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Focus On 98.930-990

*RES 4: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 3: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 2: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: 99.120 Low Mar 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.080

*SUP 1: 99.060 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 2: 99.010 Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 98.990 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*SUP 4: 98.930 Monthly Low April 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & nearly 2yr lows leave the contract looking a little

heavy and bears currently focused on 98.930 April 2016 monthly lows. Initial

resistance is currently noted at 99.120 with bulls needing a close above to gain

breathing room. A close above 99.170 remains needed to shift focus back to

99.200-220 where the 55-DMA (99.217) is noted.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) O/B Daily Studies Correcting, 100.285 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.295

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 2: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 4: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation around 2018 highs has taken its toll with the

contract pressuring initial support. In saying that, bears continue to look for

a close below 100.285 to gain breathing room and below 100.275 to pressure DMAs

100.266-270 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 100.305 to reconfirm bullish momentum and initially target 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-11 & 55-DMA Key Supports

*RES 4: 122-19+ Weekly High Jan 17

*RES 3: 122-12+ 21-WMA

*RES 2: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6, 100-DMA

*RES 1: 121-12  High Apr 3

*PRICE: 120-28 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-25  Low Mar 28

*SUP 2: 120-20+ 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 120-11  Low Mar 26 & 27

*SUP 4: 120-03  Low Mar 22

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 55-DMA supporting and focus currently on

122-02/19+ where key DMA and WMAs are situated. O/B daily studies and the

Bollinger top (121-07+) are key concerns for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and

below 120-11 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (120-15+) & shift focus back to

119-14/21+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.815 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 3: 2.815 - Low Mar 26 

*RES 2: 2.801 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.799 - Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.779 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 

*SUP 2: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.624 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: Having gained traction below the 55-DMA the bounce Tuesday was less

than ideal as daily studies approach O/S levels. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 2.815 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and gain breathing room with

above 2.859 to shift focus higher. While 2.815 caps bears focus on 2.585-648

where the 100-DMA is noted with a close below 2.717 needed to add weight to

their case.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 3383.17

*RES 4: 3448.63 High Mar 16 

*RES 3: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19 

*RES 2: 3383.17 Low Mar 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3361.50

*SUP 1: 3324.45 Low Apr 3 

*SUP 2: 3261.86 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: 3252.29 High Feb 8 2017 now support 

*SUP 4: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the bear

channel top off 2018 highs coming in around 3378.51 today. Bulls now need a

close above 3383.17 to confirm a break and to shift focus to 3448.63-3476.21

where the 55-DMA and Feb highs are found. While 3383.17 caps bears remain

focused on 2017 lows with a close below 3261.86 needed to add weight to the

case.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]