MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

3 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 158.38

*RES 4: 160.02 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28

*RES 2: 159.55 High Apr 18

*RES 1: 158.91 High May 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.61

*SUP 1: 158.38 Low Apr 30

*SUP 2: 157.90 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*SUP 3: 157.43 Low Mar 24

*SUP 4: 157.34 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging below the 55-DMA (157.81) combined with correcting

O/S daily studies resulted in a correction that sees the contract flirting with

the 21-DMA (158.82) and focus on 159.55-69. Bulls need a close above 159.69 to

shift initial focus to 160.98 Dec highs. Bears still need a close below 158.38

to ease bullish pressure and below 157.90 to see pressure back on the 157.34-43

supports from last week. 

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 130.780

*RES 4: 131.380 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 2: 131.240 High Apr 6 

*RES 1: 131.111 100-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.980

*SUP 1: 130.900 Low May 2

*SUP 2: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*SUP 3: 130.688 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 130.605 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back towards the 55-DMA sees M18 flirting

with the 21-DMA (130.982) and immediate focus returning to layers of resistance

131.111-310. Bulls now need a close above 131.310 to confirm focus on the bull

channel top (131.864). 130.900 is now initial support but bears look for a close

below 130.780 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.510 to shift initial focus

to 130.210 and overall focus to 129.840.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.945 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 3: 111.955 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 1: 111.930 Highs Apr 10 & 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.905

*SUP 1: 111.875 Low Apr 27 

*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 4: 111.715 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on dips below the 100-DMA (111.828)

resulted in closes above the 21-DMA (111.897). Bulls need a close above 111.945

to confirm traction above the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 111.955-990

where the Bollinger top is noted. Bears now look for a close below 111.875 to

gain breathing room and below 111.805 to confirm traction below DMAs and

initially target 111.715. O/S studies have corrected back to neutral levels.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 3: 122.91 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 122.84 Highs Apr 11 & 18 

*RES 1: 122.51 High May 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.91

*SUP 1: 121.80 Low May 2 

*SUP 2: 121.53 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.07 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on time spent above the

100-DMA (122.09) with the contract looking gently offered. In saying that, bears

continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and then

below 120.69 to hint at a move back to 119.29-83 with below 120.29 to confirm.

While the 55-DMA supports bulls maintain focus on the 122.84-123.03 region where

monthly highs are situated.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.270 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan

*RES 3: 99.310 High Feb 7

*RES 2: 99.296 200-DMA

*RES 1: 99.270 Lows Feb 2 & 5 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.250

*SUP 1: 99.230 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb now support

*SUP 3: 99.210 High Apr 20 now support

*SUP 4: 99.180 Highs Apr 25 & 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to take out the 99.145-160 support region last week

with the aggressive bounce Friday seeing closes above the 100-DMA and focus now

on 99.270. Daily studies are very O/B and the Bollinger top (99.266) is also a

concern. Bears now look for a close below the 100-DMA to gain breathing room and

below 99.210 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 99.145-160

support region.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 2018 High May 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Apr

*SUP 2: 100.286 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 4: 100.272 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Having found support at 100.295 bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 &

19mth highs with immediate focus now on 100.320-325 despite the lack of topside

follow through. Bulls have room to move before studies become O/B. Bears now

need a close below 100.295 to ease bullish pressure and to shift initial focus

back to 100.272-286 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows

are noted.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 119-08 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 120-20+ Hourly resistance Apr 12

*RES 3: 120-06+ High Apr 19, 55-DMA

*RES 2: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance

*RES 1: 119-29+ High Apr 20

*PRICE: 119-17 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-08  Low May 2

*SUP 2: 118-31  2018 Low Apr 25

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on the dip below 119-09

Wednesday with bears now needing a close below this level to ease renewed

bullish pressure and return initial focus to 2018 lows. Correcting O/S daily

studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above

Y120-06+ to initially target a correction back to 120-20+/24 and above 120-24 to

shift focus to 121-05-12 with the 100-DMA at 121-06+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Initially Focused On 2.925

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2

*PRICE: 2.976 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.934 - Low Apr 30 

*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (3.057).

Immediate focus remains on 2.925. Below 2.925 is needed to shift initial focus

back to 2.868-904 where 21 (2.895) & 55 (2.868) DMAs are situated. The

3.041-3.073 resistance region is key with bulls needing a close above 3.073 to

shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3523.81 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3573.95 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3570.95 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3553.79

*SUP 1: 3546.99 Hourly support May 2 

*SUP 2: 3538.17 High Apr 30 now support 

*SUP 3: 3523.81 High Apr 24 now support 

*SUP 4: 3502.91 Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 3523.81 took its toll with the close above seeing

immediate focus on 3570.95-3600.36 and overall focus now on tests of 2018 highs

(3687.22). O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. Initial support

is noted at 3546.99 but bears look for a close below 3523.81 to ease bullish

pressure and below 3464.35 to shift focus back to 3383.17-3417.29 where the

55-DMA (3420.66) is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]