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Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
3 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 158.38
*RES 4: 160.02 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28
*RES 2: 159.55 High Apr 18
*RES 1: 158.91 High May 2
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.61
*SUP 1: 158.38 Low Apr 30
*SUP 2: 157.90 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*SUP 3: 157.43 Low Mar 24
*SUP 4: 157.34 Low Mar 14
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging below the 55-DMA (157.81) combined with correcting
O/S daily studies resulted in a correction that sees the contract flirting with
the 21-DMA (158.82) and focus on 159.55-69. Bulls need a close above 159.69 to
shift initial focus to 160.98 Dec highs. Bears still need a close below 158.38
to ease bullish pressure and below 157.90 to see pressure back on the 157.34-43
supports from last week.
BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 130.780
*RES 4: 131.380 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3
*RES 2: 131.240 High Apr 6
*RES 1: 131.111 100-WMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.980
*SUP 1: 130.900 Low May 2
*SUP 2: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*SUP 3: 130.688 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 130.605 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back towards the 55-DMA sees M18 flirting
with the 21-DMA (130.982) and immediate focus returning to layers of resistance
131.111-310. Bulls now need a close above 131.310 to confirm focus on the bull
channel top (131.864). 130.900 is now initial support but bears look for a close
below 130.780 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.510 to shift initial focus
to 130.210 and overall focus to 129.840.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.945 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28
*RES 3: 111.955 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6
*RES 1: 111.930 Highs Apr 10 & 13
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.905
*SUP 1: 111.875 Low Apr 27
*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14
*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9
*SUP 4: 111.715 Low Feb 27
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on dips below the 100-DMA (111.828)
resulted in closes above the 21-DMA (111.897). Bulls need a close above 111.945
to confirm traction above the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 111.955-990
where the Bollinger top is noted. Bears now look for a close below 111.875 to
gain breathing room and below 111.805 to confirm traction below DMAs and
initially target 111.715. O/S studies have corrected back to neutral levels.
GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 123.03 High Apr 4
*RES 3: 122.91 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 122.84 Highs Apr 11 & 18
*RES 1: 122.51 High May 1
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.91
*SUP 1: 121.80 Low May 2
*SUP 2: 121.53 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 121.07 Low Mar 26
*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on time spent above the
100-DMA (122.09) with the contract looking gently offered. In saying that, bears
continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and then
below 120.69 to hint at a move back to 119.29-83 with below 120.29 to confirm.
While the 55-DMA supports bulls maintain focus on the 122.84-123.03 region where
monthly highs are situated.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.270 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan
*RES 3: 99.310 High Feb 7
*RES 2: 99.296 200-DMA
*RES 1: 99.270 Lows Feb 2 & 5 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.250
*SUP 1: 99.230 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb now support
*SUP 3: 99.210 High Apr 20 now support
*SUP 4: 99.180 Highs Apr 25 & 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to take out the 99.145-160 support region last week
with the aggressive bounce Friday seeing closes above the 100-DMA and focus now
on 99.270. Daily studies are very O/B and the Bollinger top (99.266) is also a
concern. Bears now look for a close below the 100-DMA to gain breathing room and
below 99.210 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 99.145-160
support region.
EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec
*RES 1: 100.310 - 2018 High May 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305
*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Apr
*SUP 2: 100.286 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support
*SUP 4: 100.272 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Having found support at 100.295 bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 &
19mth highs with immediate focus now on 100.320-325 despite the lack of topside
follow through. Bulls have room to move before studies become O/B. Bears now
need a close below 100.295 to ease bullish pressure and to shift initial focus
back to 100.272-286 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows
are noted.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 119-08 Support Now Key
*RES 4: 120-20+ Hourly resistance Apr 12
*RES 3: 120-06+ High Apr 19, 55-DMA
*RES 2: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance
*RES 1: 119-29+ High Apr 20
*PRICE: 119-17 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-08 Low May 2
*SUP 2: 118-31 2018 Low Apr 25
*SUP 3: 118-24 Low Apr 13 2011
*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on the dip below 119-09
Wednesday with bears now needing a close below this level to ease renewed
bullish pressure and return initial focus to 2018 lows. Correcting O/S daily
studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above
Y120-06+ to initially target a correction back to 120-20+/24 and above 120-24 to
shift focus to 121-05-12 with the 100-DMA at 121-06+.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Initially Focused On 2.925
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25
*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2
*PRICE: 2.976 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.934 - Low Apr 30
*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20
*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20
*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily
studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (3.057).
Immediate focus remains on 2.925. Below 2.925 is needed to shift initial focus
back to 2.868-904 where 21 (2.895) & 55 (2.868) DMAs are situated. The
3.041-3.073 resistance region is key with bulls needing a close above 3.073 to
shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3523.81 Support Now Key
*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1
*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 21 now resistance
*RES 2: 3573.95 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 3570.95 Alternating daily support/resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3553.79
*SUP 1: 3546.99 Hourly support May 2
*SUP 2: 3538.17 High Apr 30 now support
*SUP 3: 3523.81 High Apr 24 now support
*SUP 4: 3502.91 Hourly support Apr 26
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 3523.81 took its toll with the close above seeing
immediate focus on 3570.95-3600.36 and overall focus now on tests of 2018 highs
(3687.22). O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. Initial support
is noted at 3546.99 but bears look for a close below 3523.81 to ease bullish
pressure and below 3464.35 to shift focus back to 3383.17-3417.29 where the
55-DMA (3420.66) is situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.