MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

21 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Looking A Little Offered

*RES 4: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 3: 162.70 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 162.15 High May 31, 100-WMA

*RES 1: 161.86 High June 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.32

*SUP 1: 161.31 Low June 20

*SUP 2: 160.89 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 160.85 Hourly resistance June 15 now support

*SUP 4: 160.22 High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through is a concern for bulls who

currently need a close above 162.15 to confirm focus on 163.03-164.19. Daily

studies remain well placed for gains. Bears now look for a close below 160.85 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA, easing bullish pressure, and below 159.37 to

confirm a break of the 55-DMA (159.44) and shift immediate focus to

157.14-158.23 where the 100-DMA (158.12) is noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 130.190-770 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 3: 132.401 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 132.370 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 1: 132.120 High May 31

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.840

*SUP 1: 131.770 High June 18 now support

*SUP 2: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 3: 131.190 High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 130.821 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA support confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce

from just ahead that sees focus back on 132.120. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 132.120 to confirm focus on a move back to 132.660-970. The lack of

topside follow through is now a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below

131.77 to gain breathing room and below 131.190 to shift focus back to

130.590-846 where the 55-DMA is situated.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Below 111.940 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 112.120 High May 31 

*RES 2: 112.065 High June 5 

*RES 1: 112.050 High June 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.030

*SUP 1: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 2: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.865 Low June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.849 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Thursday bulls gained breathing room with

an aggressive rally and bullish close that sees focus back on 112.065-155. Bulls

need a close above 112.065 to hint at a move back to 112.270-425 where 2018

highs are noted with above 112.155 to confirm. The 111.940 support remains key

this week. Bears need a close below 111.975 to ease renewed bullish pressure and

below 111.940 to shift focus back to 111.815-865 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Above 123.64 To Target 124.67

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 123.86 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 1: 123.19 High June 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.88

*SUP 1: 122.73 Low June 20 

*SUP 2: 122.34 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 122.14 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 4: 121.68 Hourly support June 12

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the pop above 123.17 but follow through

remains lacking. Bulls continue to look for a close above 123.64 to initially

target 124.67. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence. Bears

now need a close below 122.73 to gain breathing room and below 122.14 to shift

initial focus back to 121.33-73 where the 55-DMA (121.52) is located.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.260

*RES 4: 99.343 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.300 High May 25-30

*RES 2: 99.292 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.240

*SUP 1: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19

*SUP 2: 99.210 Low June 14

*SUP 3: 99.200 Lows June 6 - 8

*SUP 4: 99.179 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 21-DMA (99.244)

with a close above 99.260 remaining needed to return focus to 2018 highs. The

Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Initial support is noted at 99.230 with bears needing a close below to

gain breathing room and below 99.200 needed to initially pressure the 200-DMA.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.308 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.289 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.282 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.274 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance is now key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies lingering at O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls. Bears now need a

close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA to shift

immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 119-14+

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 2: 120-06  High June 19

*RES 1: 119-30+ High June 20

*PRICE: 119-14 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-09  Hourly resistance June 13 now support

*SUP 2: 118-29  Low June 13

*SUP 3: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*SUP 4: 118-09  Low May 21

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of 120-00+ has been

followed up with losses Wednesday that see immediate pressure back on 119-14+.

Bears continue to look for a close below 119-14+ to confirm breaks of 21

(119-20+) & 55 (119-14+) DMAs, easing bullish pressure, and below 118-29+ to

shift initial focus back to 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above 119-30+ to

gain breathing room and above 120-06 to confirm focus on 112-03/12+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.014 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 2: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 1: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.948 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.933 - Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 2: 2.884 - Hourly support June 19 

*SUP 3: 2.853 - Low June 19 

*SUP 4: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: The break of 2.884 and the 100-DMA (2.893) has lacked follow

through with the close above the 21 (2.924) & 55 (2.936) DMAs buying bulls

breathing room. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3.014 to end bearish

hopes and initially target 2018 highs. The 2.853 support is now key. Bears need

a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and initially target

2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3383.17 & 3469.94 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: 3560.56 High May 24

*RES 3: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 2: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 1: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3439.60

*SUP 1: 3410.41 Low June 19 

*SUP 2: 3402.67 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 3389.57 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 200-DMA (3521.65) last week

saw the pair dip below the bull channel base (3434.45) off 2018 lows. Bears

continue to look for a close below 3383.17 to confirm a break of the channel

base and 100-WMA and target 2018 lows. Daily studies have room to move before

O/S is an issue. Bulls now need a close above 3469.94 to gain breathing room and

above 3505.02 to shift focus back to 3540.03-3600.36.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]