MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

29 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 3: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 2: 163.00 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 162.66 High June 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.30

*SUP 1: 162.01 Low June 27

*SUP 2: 161.75 Low June 26

*SUP 3: 161.26 Low June 21

*SUP 4: 161.19 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 21-DMA provided the

impetus for a rally last week that shifted immediate focus to 163.03 and overall

focus on 2018 highs & the weekly bear channel top (164.48). Bears need a close

below 161.75 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to 159.37-160.22 where the 55-DMA (159.78) is situated. Bulls look for a

close above 163.03 to add support to their case.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 131.980 & 132.300 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: 132.970 Monthly High May 29 

*RES 3: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 2: 132.511 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 132.300 High June 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.210

*SUP 1: 132.010 Low June 26

*SUP 2: 131.980 Hourly support June 21

*SUP 3: 131.770 High June 18 now support

*SUP 4: 131.695 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is less than ideal given daily studies looking

to correct from O/B and the Bollinger top lurking just above and likely to limit

follow through on a break higher. Bears look for a close below 131.980 to gain

breathing room and below the 21-DMA to hint at a move back to 130.780-131.190

with below 131.490 to confirm. Bulls need a close above 132.300 to add support

to their case.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 112.055

*RES 4: 112.270 High May 30 

*RES 3: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 2: 112.150 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.135 High June 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.100

*SUP 1: 112.075 Low June 25 

*SUP 2: 112.055 Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 3: 112.024 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.975 Hourly support June 14

*COMMENTARY: Narrow sideways trading has defined this week so far although

topside hesitation is a concern given daily studies looking to correct from O/B

and the Bollinger top just above. Bulls need a close above 112.155 to confirm a

shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears look for a

close below 112.055 to gain breathing room and below 111.940 to shift focus back

to 111.815-888 where 55 (111.888) & 100 (111.846) DMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 122.87

*RES 4: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 3: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 2: 123.68 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 123.64 High May 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.26

*SUP 1: 123.19 High June 19 now support 

*SUP 2: 122.87 Low June 27 

*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: 122.28 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 123.19 resistance took its toll with a break higher

Wednesday that sees immediate focus now on 123.64. Bulls now look for a close

above this level to add support to the case for a test of 124.67. O/B daily

studies and the Bollinger top remain concerns for bulls. Bears need a close

below 122.87 to gain breathing room and below 122.28 to shift focus back to

121.12-73 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.230

*RES 4: 99.300 High May 25-30

*RES 3: 99.274 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.223 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.205

*SUP 1: 99.185 Low June 27

*SUP 2: 99.181 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.170 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 55 & 200-DMAs failed to produce a break lower with

bears looking for a close below the 200-DMA now to confirm focus on the 100-DMA.

Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to target 98.990-99.060 where 2018 lows are

situated. Layers of resistance are slowing the recovery with bulls needing a

close above 99.230 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a move back to

99.300 with above 99.260 to confirm.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Below 100.265 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.281 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 3: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*SUP 4: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies looking to correct from O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls. Bears

still need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the

200-DMA to shift immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall focus back to 2018

lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bulls Focused On 121-03/12

*RES 4: 121-12  Monthly High June

*RES 3: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 1: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*PRICE: 120-05 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-02  Hourly support June 27

*SUP 2: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 3: 119-20+ Low June 22

*SUP 4: 119-13+ Low June 21, 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip below 119-14+ saw pressure return to

120-06 and bulls taking comfort in a close above Wednesday. Bulls now focus on

121-03/12 where May highs are located. Daily studies approaching O/B and the

Bollinger top (120-11+) capping are concerns for bulls. Initial support is noted

at 120-02. Bears need a close below this level to ease bullish pressure and

below 119-26+ to shift focus back to 119-13+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Initially Targeting 2.717-759

*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 1: 2.873 - Hourly resistance June 27

*PRICE: 2.855 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures around 2.950 saw pressure return to the 2.853

support resulting in a close below Wednesday that now sees focus back on

2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The Bollinger base (2.830) is the key

concern for bears and currently supports. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 2.873 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to pressure the key 3.014-050

resistance region.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3424.60 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 2: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18

*RES 1: 3424.60 High June 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3365.52

*SUP 1: 3340.50 Low June 27 

*SUP 2: 3320.97 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: 3300.50 Low Apr 4 

*SUP 4: 3261.86 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: A whippy session Wednesday saw follow through lacking in both

direct6ions. Bulls now need a close above 3424.60 to ease bearish pressure and

above 3469.94 to shift immediate focus back to 3493.91-3540.03 where 55 &

200-DMAs are noted. While 3469.94 caps bears retain the upper hand and focus on

3261.86-3320.97 where the 200-WMA is situated. The Bollinger base (3357.20) is

the key concern for bears and limits follow through.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]