MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

4 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 162.22

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 3: 163.40 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 1: 162.81 High July 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.53

*SUP 1: 162.22 Low July 3

*SUP 2: 161.75 Low June 26

*SUP 3: 161.36 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 161.26 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: Failures ahead of the 163.03 resistance remain a concern for bulls

when combined with daily momentum divergence, O/B studies looking to correct and

the Bollinger top lurking above. Bears now need a close below 162.22 to gain

breathing room and below 161.26 to shift initial focus back to 159.37-160.22

where the 55-DMA (159.97) is situated. Bulls look for a close above 163.03 to

add support to the case for a test of 164.19-42.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Above 132.330 To Reconfirm Bullish Bias

*RES 4: 132.970 Monthly High May 29 

*RES 3: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 2: 132.636 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 132.330 High July 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.200

*SUP 1: 132.090 Low July 3

*SUP 2: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 3: 131.763 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation resulted in a sharp dip Friday only to confirm

the significance of the 131.763-770 support region with an aggressive bounce.

Bulls now need a close above 132.330 to confirm focus on 132.660-970. Correcting

O/B studies look to be weighing and are the key concern for bulls. Bears now

look for a close below 132.090 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to

target 130.780-131.190.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 112.055 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.270 High May 30 

*RES 3: 112.165 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 1: 112.135 High June 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.095

*SUP 1: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 

*SUP 2: 112.055 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 3: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation resulted in a sharp dip Friday before bouncing

aggressively ahead of 111.940-975. Correcting O/B studies and the Bollinger top

remain key concerns for bulls. Bulls continue to look for a close above 112.155

to confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

Bears still need a close below 112.055 to gain breathing room and below 111.940

to shift focus back to 111.815-908 where 55 & 100 (111.859) DMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 123.64 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 123.75 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 1: 123.49 High July 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.41

*SUP 1: 122.90 Low July 3 

*SUP 2: 122.63 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: 122.28 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the 126.64 resistance saw the pair dip back

towards the 21-DMA Friday with correcting modestly O/B studies seen weighing.

Bears continue to look for a close below 122.28 to confirms breaks of the rising

daily TL (122.61) off May lows and the 21-DMA with immediate focus shifting to

121.22-78 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bulls still need a close above

123.64 to add support to the case for a test of 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Above 99.230 To Confirm 21-DMA Break

*RES 4: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.254 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.213 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.200

*SUP 1: 99.190 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.185 Low June 27

*SUP 3: 99.168 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 21-DMA resulted in a sell-off that sees

immediate focus back on 55 & 200-DMAs. Bears look for a close below the 200-DMA

to shift immediate focus to 99.134-140 where the 100-DMA is noted. Below the

100-DMA is needed to target 98.990-99.060 where 2018 lows are situated. Bulls

need a close above 99.230 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a move

back to 99.300 with above 99.260 to confirm.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Below 100.265 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 2: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15 

*RES 1: 100.290 - Repeated daily highs June & July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.282 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 3: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*SUP 4: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still

need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to

confirm a break of the 200-DMA (100.267) & shift immediate focus back to 100.245

and overall focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-16 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 121-12  Monthly High June

*RES 3: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 1: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*PRICE: 120-08 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-06  Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 4: 119-20+ Low June 22

*COMMENTARY: The 120-16 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a

close above to confirm focus on 121-03/12. The Bollinger top (120-15+) and

modestly O/B studies remain key concerns for bulls. Initial support is noted at

120-06 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below

119-26+ to shift initial focus back to 119-13+ where the 55-DMA is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure remains on the 2.821 support with overall

bearish focus currently on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The

Bollinger base (2.818) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears.

Bulls continue now look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above

2.950 to pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3424.60-3469.94 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 3: 3490.41 55-DMA

*RES 2: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18

*RES 1: 3424.60 High June 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3406.34

*SUP 1: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 3340.50 Low June 27 

*SUP 3: 3321.78 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3300.50 Low Apr 4

*COMMENTARY: Bulls still need a close above 3424.60 to ease bearish pressure and

above 3469.94 to shift immediate focus back to 3490.41-3540.03 where 55 &

200-DMAs are noted. While 3469.94 caps bears retain the upper hand and focus on

3261.86-3320.97 where the 200-WMA is situated. The Bollinger base (3344.01) and

O/S studies remain concerns for bears and limit follow through.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]