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Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
4 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 162.22
*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29
*RES 3: 163.40 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 163.03 High May 30
*RES 1: 162.81 High July 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.53
*SUP 1: 162.22 Low July 3
*SUP 2: 161.75 Low June 26
*SUP 3: 161.36 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 161.26 Low June 21
*COMMENTARY: Failures ahead of the 163.03 resistance remain a concern for bulls
when combined with daily momentum divergence, O/B studies looking to correct and
the Bollinger top lurking above. Bears now need a close below 162.22 to gain
breathing room and below 161.26 to shift initial focus back to 159.37-160.22
where the 55-DMA (159.97) is situated. Bulls look for a close above 163.03 to
add support to the case for a test of 164.19-42.
BOBL TECHS: (U18) Above 132.330 To Reconfirm Bullish Bias
*RES 4: 132.970 Monthly High May 29
*RES 3: 132.660 High May 30
*RES 2: 132.636 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 132.330 High July 2
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.200
*SUP 1: 132.090 Low July 3
*SUP 2: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29
*SUP 3: 131.763 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation resulted in a sharp dip Friday only to confirm
the significance of the 131.763-770 support region with an aggressive bounce.
Bulls now need a close above 132.330 to confirm focus on 132.660-970. Correcting
O/B studies look to be weighing and are the key concern for bulls. Bears now
look for a close below 132.090 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to
target 130.780-131.190.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 112.055 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: 112.270 High May 30
*RES 3: 112.165 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 1: 112.135 High June 21
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.095
*SUP 1: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3
*SUP 2: 112.055 Hourly support June 29
*SUP 3: 111.975 Hourly support June 14
*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation resulted in a sharp dip Friday before bouncing
aggressively ahead of 111.940-975. Correcting O/B studies and the Bollinger top
remain key concerns for bulls. Bulls continue to look for a close above 112.155
to confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.
Bears still need a close below 112.055 to gain breathing room and below 111.940
to shift focus back to 111.815-908 where 55 & 100 (111.859) DMAs are noted.
GILT TECHS: (U18) 123.64 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29
*RES 3: 123.75 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30
*RES 1: 123.49 High July 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.41
*SUP 1: 122.90 Low July 3
*SUP 2: 122.63 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22
*SUP 4: 122.28 Low June 21
*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the 126.64 resistance saw the pair dip back
towards the 21-DMA Friday with correcting modestly O/B studies seen weighing.
Bears continue to look for a close below 122.28 to confirms breaks of the rising
daily TL (122.61) off May lows and the 21-DMA with immediate focus shifting to
121.22-78 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bulls still need a close above
123.64 to add support to the case for a test of 124.67.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Above 99.230 To Confirm 21-DMA Break
*RES 4: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance
*RES 3: 99.254 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.213 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.200
*SUP 1: 99.190 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.185 Low June 27
*SUP 3: 99.168 200-DMA
*SUP 4: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3
*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 21-DMA resulted in a sell-off that sees
immediate focus back on 55 & 200-DMAs. Bears look for a close below the 200-DMA
to shift immediate focus to 99.134-140 where the 100-DMA is noted. Below the
100-DMA is needed to target 98.990-99.060 where 2018 lows are situated. Bulls
need a close above 99.230 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a move
back to 99.300 with above 99.260 to confirm.
EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Below 100.265 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May
*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance
*RES 2: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15
*RES 1: 100.290 - Repeated daily highs June & July
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290
*SUP 1: 100.282 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25
*SUP 3: 100.265 - High June 11 now support
*SUP 4: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8
*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above
this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily
studies correcting from O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still
need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to
confirm a break of the 200-DMA (100.267) & shift immediate focus back to 100.245
and overall focus back to 2018 lows.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-16 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 121-12 Monthly High June
*RES 3: 121-03 High May 30
*RES 2: 120-24 Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 1: 120-16 Hourly resistance May 30
*PRICE: 120-08 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 120-06 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 2: 119-30 Low July 3
*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26
*SUP 4: 119-20+ Low June 22
*COMMENTARY: The 120-16 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a
close above to confirm focus on 121-03/12. The Bollinger top (120-15+) and
modestly O/B studies remain key concerns for bulls. Initial support is noted at
120-06 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below
119-26+ to shift initial focus back to 119-13+ where the 55-DMA is located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key
*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21
*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26
*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3
*RES 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29
*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2
*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure remains on the 2.821 support with overall
bearish focus currently on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The
Bollinger base (2.818) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears.
Bulls continue now look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above
2.950 to pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3424.60-3469.94 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance
*RES 3: 3490.41 55-DMA
*RES 2: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18
*RES 1: 3424.60 High June 27
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3406.34
*SUP 1: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 2: 3340.50 Low June 27
*SUP 3: 3321.78 200-WMA
*SUP 4: 3300.50 Low Apr 4
*COMMENTARY: Bulls still need a close above 3424.60 to ease bearish pressure and
above 3469.94 to shift immediate focus back to 3490.41-3540.03 where 55 &
200-DMAs are noted. While 3469.94 caps bears retain the upper hand and focus on
3261.86-3320.97 where the 200-WMA is situated. The Bollinger base (3344.01) and
O/S studies remain concerns for bears and limit follow through.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.