MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

25 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) 162.70 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 162.95 Hourly support July 20 now resistance

*RES 3: 162.70 Low July 19 now resistance

*RES 2: 162.59 21-DMA

*RES 1: 162.33 High July 24

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.27

*SUP 1: 162.00 Hourly support July 24

*SUP 2: 161.75 Low July 11

*SUP 3: 161.26 Low June 21

*SUP 4: 161.14 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 161.75 support confirmed significance with a bounce from ahead

of this level Tuesday. Bears continue to look for a close below 161.75 to shift

initial focus back to 161.14-26 where the 55-DMA is noted. Below the 55-DMA is

needed to target 159.37-160.22 with the 100-DMA at 159.83 The 162.70 resistance

remains key. Bulls still need a close above 162.70 to shift focus back to

163.39-164.19.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 131.770 Support Reconfirms Significance

*RES 4: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 3: 132.290 High July 20 

*RES 2: 132.120 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 132.040 High July 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.920

*SUP 1: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 2: 131.602 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 131.500 Low June 15

*SUP 4: 131.191 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 131.770 support reconfirmed significance with a bounce from

this level Wednesday. Bears continue to look for a close below 131.770 to break

the recent 131.770-132.330 range and shift immediate focus to 131.500-602 where

the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls still need a close above 132.050 to gain breathing

room and above 132.330 to target 132.660-970.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Bounces From Key Support

*RES 4: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.045 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.010 High July 23 

*RES 1: 111.986 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.980

*SUP 1: 111.945 Low July 24 

*SUP 2: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.889 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.865 Monthly Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the key 111.940 support has so far failed to

produce a break lower with the pair bouncing to pressure the 55-DMA. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 112.010 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA

and shift initial focus to 112.045-085 where the 21-DMA is situated. Bears still

need a close below 111.940 to shift initial focus to 111.865-889 where the

100-DMA is located.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 123.41

*RES 4: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 3: 124.27 High July 20 

*RES 2: 123.84 Hourly support July 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: 123.41 Hourly resistance July 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.31

*SUP 1: 122.94 Low July 17 

*SUP 2: 122.76 Low July 9 

*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: 122.41 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on the break of the rising

TL (125.33) off May lows with U18 recovering from its lows Tuesday. Layers of

support remain 122.28-76 with bears needing a close below 122.28 to end bullish

hopes and shift initial focus to 121.33-80 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls now

look for a close above 123.41 to gain breathing room and above 123.84 to focus

on 124.27-67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.208 55-DMA

*RES 3: 99.192 Daily Bear channel top off May 30 high

*RES 2: 99.167 200-DMA

*RES 1: 99.150 Lows July 5 & 23 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.140

*SUP 1: 99.130 Low July 24

*SUP 2: 99.090 High Apr 26 now support

*SUP 3: 99.060 Low Apr 24

*SUP 4: 99.030 Low Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: The break of 99.140 has lacked follow through although bears take

comfort in the marginal close below the 100-DMA. Focus has now shifted to

99.060-090. Initial resistance is now noted at 99.150. Bulls now need a close

above this level to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to shift focus

back to the 55-DMA. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower before

O/S is an issue.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.296 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.285 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls still need a close

above this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.274), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 119-30+

*RES 4: 120-13+ High July 19

*RES 3: 120-06+ Hourly support July 20 now resistance

*RES 2: 119-30  Hourly support July 23 now resistance

*RES 1: 119-26+ Alternating Daily support/resistance

*PRICE: 119-21+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-12+ Low July 24

*SUP 2: 119-06  Low June 14

*SUP 3: 118-29+ Monthly Low June 13

*SUP 4: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: Losses continue to define the week with fresh 5 week lows Tuesday,

although follow through has so far been lacking. Bears now look for a close

below 119-12+ to shift overall focus back to tests of May lows (117-30) with

below 118-29+ to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above 119-30

to shift focus back to the key 120-13+/20 resistance region.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 3: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 2: 2.973 - High July 24 

*RES 1: 2.956 - Hourly support July 24 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.934 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.923 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.880 - Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 4: 2.860 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low resulted in a close above the key

2.950 resistance this week confirming traction above the 55-DMA. Bullish focus

has shifted to the 3.014-084 resistance region with a close above 3.084 to

confirm initial focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears need a

close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 2.880 to shift initial

focus back to 2.807.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3508.16 200-DMA

*RES 2: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 1: 3502.05 55-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3483.31

*SUP 1: 3469.96 Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 2: 3434.47 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3418.06 Low July 12 

*SUP 4: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 21-DMA sees pressure on

layers of resistance 3502.05-3508.16 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are situated.

Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to add support to the case for a test of

2018 highs with immediate focus shifting to 3540.03-3566.63 where the weekly

bear channel top of 2018 highs are noted. Bears need a close below 3569.96 to

gain breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]