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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
3 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2
*RES 3: $1.1912 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2
*RES 1: $1.1861 Hourly resistance Aug 2
*PRICE: $1.1837 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1818 Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 2: $1.1784 Low Aug 1
*SUP 3: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support
*SUP 4: $1.1723 Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: Despite fresh 2017 highs the lack of topside follow through is a
concern for bulls when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B
and the proximity of the Bollinger top. In saying that, the $1.1763 support
remains key with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below
$1.1704 to confirm focus on $1.1583-1.1648. Bulls look for a close above 2017
highs to reconfirm the bullish bias.
CABLE TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Remain A Concern
*RES 4: $1.3539 100-WMA
*RES 3: $1.3445 Monthly High Sept 6
*RES 2: $1.3278 High Sept 19
*RES 1: $1.3242 2017 High Aug 1
*PRICE: $1.3217 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3191 Hourly support Aug 1
*SUP 2: $1.3157 High July 27 Now support
*SUP 3: $1.3135 Hourly resistance July 31 now support
*SUP 4: $1.3094 Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on $1.3157 took its toll with a break higher that sees
bulls now initially focused on $1.3278 and then $1.3445-1.3539 where monthly
highs and the 100-WMA are located. Layers of support remain with bears needing a
close below $1.3157 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.3094 to shift focus
back to $1.3004-42 where the 21-DMA is located. The Bollinger top ($1.3237) is
the key concern for bulls.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Increased Correction Risk
*RES 4: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance
*RES 3: Y111.55 55-DMA
*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27
*RES 1: Y110.98 High Aug 2
*PRICE: Y110.73 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.28 Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 2: Y109.91 Low Aug 1
*SUP 3: Y109.72 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y109.25 Low June 15
*COMMENTARY: Correction risk has increased when the lack of follow through on
Aug 1 is combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/S, daily momentum
divergence and support emerging on dips. Bears now need a close below Y109.91 to
reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on Y108.15-69. Layers of resistance remain
with bulls needing a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a shift higher in focus
with above Y112.87 needed to target Y114.50-115.50.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.59
*RES 4: Y132.90 Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 3: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016
*RES 2: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016
*RES 1: Y131.40 2017 High Aug 2
*PRICE: Y131.15 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.75 Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 2: Y130.59 High July 31 now support
*SUP 3: Y130.37 Hourly support Aug 1
*SUP 4: Y129.89 Low Aug 1, 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA supported the past 2 weeks and provided the base for a
break of Y130.75 that sees bullish focus shift to Y131.64-132.23. The 200-WMA
comes in around Y130.65 with bulls needing a weekly close above to add support
to their case. The Bollinger top (Y131.24) is the key concern for bulls &
currently limits follow through. Bears now need a close below Y130.59 to ease
bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-DMA once again.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Topside Failure A Concern
*RES 4: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9
*RES 3: Gbp0.8994 2017 High July 21
*RES 2: Gbp0.8988 High Aug 2
*RES 1: Gbp0.8968 Hourly resistance Aug 2
*PRICE: Gbp0.8960 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8922 Low Aug 1
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8895 21-DMA
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8890 Low July 27
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8867 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through Wednesday leaves a double daily
top in place Gbp0.8988-94 which is a concern when combined with daily studies
looking to correct from O/B and increases the risk of a correction back to
Gbp0.8805-67. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8968 to gain breathing room and
above 2017 highs to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target Gbp0.9025-68.
Bears need a close below Gbp0.8922 to add weight to their case.
AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To $0.7838-74
*RES 4: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1
*RES 2: $0.7950 - Hourly support Aug 2 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7936 - Hourly resistance Aug 3
*PRICE: $0.7927 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25
*SUP 2: $0.7874 - Low July 21
*SUP 3: $0.7852 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of recent 2017 highs and relatively bearish
closes is less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting from O/B.
Pressure on $0.7934 has taken its toll with bears now focused on the $0.7838-74
region where the 21-DMA is located. Initial resistance is now noted at $0.7950
with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $0.8015 to
shift focus back to $0.8044-65.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.650
*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26
*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27
*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31
*PRICE: 92.945 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2
*SUP 2: 92.330 - 200-WMA
*SUP 3: 92.256 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth lows lacked follow through with support
emerging ahead of the 200-WMA less than ideal given daily studies looking to
correct from O/S. Initial resistance is noted at 93.161 with bulls needing a
close above to gain breathing room whereas above 93.650 is needed to shift
immediate focus back to 94.465-607 where the 21-DMA is situated. Bears now need
a close below 91.919 to reconfirm a bearish bias targeting 86.80-87.65.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.285 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 2.348 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14
*RES 2: 2.321 - High Aug 1
*RES 1: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.257 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.243 - Low Aug 1
*SUP 2: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24
*SUP 3: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24
*SUP 4: 2.228 - 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The yield is finding support on dips below the 55-DMA (2.246) which
is a concern for bears who need a close below the 200-WMA to confirm focus on
tests of 2017 lows. Resistance layers remain with bulls needing a close above
2.285 to gain breathing room and above 2.337 to see pressure back on 2.348-396
where the bear channel top and July highs are located. Overall a close above
2.437 is needed to focus on 2017 highs.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) $47.86 & $50.10 Levels Now Key
*RES 4: $50.78 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: $50.70 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 2: $50.10 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 1: $49.70 - Hourly resistance July 1a
*PRICE: $49.47 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $49.29 - Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 2: $48.38 - Low Aug 1
*SUP 3: $48.25 - Low July 27
*SUP 4: $47.86 - Low July 26
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from O/B remain the key concern for bulls
who take comfort in support emerging on dips below the 100-DMA ($48.62). Bears
now need a close below $47.86 to confirm focus on 21 & 55-DMAs ($47.09-11).
Bulls gained breathing room with a close above $49.29 but now need a close above
$50.10 to confirm focus on $50.70-51.27 where the bear channel top and 200-DMA
are situated.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1280.8 To Reconfirm Focus on 2017 High
*RES 4: $1282.0 - Bollinger band top
*RES 3: $1280.8 - High June 14
*RES 2: $1274.0 - High Aug 1
*RES 1: $1265.8 - Hourly support Aug 2 now resistance
*PRICE: $1261.8 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1257.2 - Hourly support Aug 3
*SUP 2: $1257.0 - Low July 28
*SUP 3: $1252.9 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $1251.9 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation combined with daily studies looking to correct
from O/B and waning momentum are hinting at a test of key support layers
$1241.4-1252.9 where key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated. Layers of
resistance are accumulating with bulls needing a close above $1265.8 to gain
breathing room and above $1280.8 to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 2017
highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.