MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 

*RES 3: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now support 

*RES 2: $1.1824 High Aug 8 

*RES 1: $1.1802 Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1775 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1761 Hourly support Aug 11 

*SUP 2: $1.1704 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1690 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 4: $1.1671 Low July 28

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support continuing to emerge on dips back

towards the 21-DMA. The $1.1824 resistance is now key with bulls needing a close

above to hint at a retest of 2017 highs and then the bull channel top ($1.1979).

Bears now look for a close below $1.1690 to add weight to their case for a move

that initially targets $1.1583-1.1648. Below $1.1583 is needed to shift focus to

$1.1373-1.1480 where the 55-DMA ($1.1439) is located.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3025-67 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.3079 Hourly support Aug 4 

*RES 3: $1.3067 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3059 High Aug 7 

*RES 1: $1.3025 High Aug 9

*PRICE: $1.2997 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2955 Low Aug 8 

*SUP 2: $1.2924 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2847 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2841 Daily bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Cable remains heavy as it gains traction below the 21-DMA with

immediate bearish focus on the 55-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA

to shift initial focus to $1.2797-1.2841 where the 100-DMA and bull channel base

are situated. Bulls still need a close above $1.3025 to gain breathing room and

above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to $1.3113.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.25 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: Y110.82 High Aug 8 

*RES 3: Y110.59 Hourly resistance Aug 8 

*RES 2: Y110.25 Low Aug 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.58 Low Aug 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Y108.98 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14 

*SUP 2: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 3: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.91 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: The Y110.25 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the

pair remaining capped ahead of this level resulting in fresh 2mth lows and bears

firmly focused on tests of Y108.10-69 where 2017 lows are noted. The Bollinger

base (Y109.02) is the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are building

and weighing with bulls needing a close above Y109.58 to gain breathing room and

above Y110.25 to shift focus back to Y110.94-111.37 where key DMAs are noted.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y129.89

*RES 4: Y130.23 Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y129.89 Low Aug 1 now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.54 High Aug 10 

*RES 1: Y128.83 Hourly resistance Aug 10

*PRICE: Y128.35 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.99 Low July 6 

*SUP 2: Y127.43 Low June 30 

*SUP 3: Y127.39 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y126.56 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: Having supported the past 3 weeks, bears take comfort in closes

below the 21-DMA that confirm an easing of bullish pressure and sees focus on

Y127.39-43 where key supports and the 55-DMA are located. Layers of resistance

are weighing and leaving the pair looking offered. Bulls now need a close above

Y128.83 to gain breathing room and above Y129.89 to shift focus back to

Y131.13-133.64. Below the 55-DMA hints at a move back to Y125.80.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8988

*RES 4: Gbp0.9194 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: Gbp0.9141 High Oct 11

*RES 2: Gbp0.9124 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Gbp0.9088 2017 High Aug 8

*PRICE: Gbp0.9061 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9043 Hourly support Aug 10 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9008 Low Aug 10 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8994 High July 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8988 High Aug 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of recent 2017 & 10mth highs remains a concern for

bulls given daily studies looking to correct from O/B and daily momentum

divergence. In saying that, the Gbp0.8988 support remains key. Bears need a

close below Gbp0.8988 to shift focus back to Gbp0.8922-55 where the 21-DMA is

noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above Gbp0.9088 to retain focus on

Gbp0.9141-94 where the bull channel top is noted.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7838 & $0.7949 Levels Key

*RES 4: $0.7949 - High Aug 7 

*RES 3: $0.7919 - Hourly support Aug 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7876 - Hourly resistance Aug 11 

*RES 1: $0.7856 - Low Aug 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7846 @ 0210GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7781 - Low July 17 

*SUP 3: $0.7749 - Hourly support July 14a 

*SUP 4: $0.7706 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy with immediate bearish focus on the $0.7838

support. Overall a close below $0.7838 is needed to shift focus to

$0.7749-0.7781. Bulls now look for a close above $0.7876 to gain breathing room

and above $0.7949 to hint at a move back to $0.8044-65 with above $0.7998 needed

to confirm. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an issue but the

Bollinger base ($0.7819) is now a concern.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 2: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 1: 93.888 - High Aug 9

*PRICE: 93.393 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.238 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 2: 93.061 - Hourly support Aug 4a

*SUP 3: 92.679 - Low Aug 3

*SUP 4: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from recent 2017 lows the move has stalled ahead

of the 21-DMA (93.771) with bulls now needing a close above 93.888 to confirm an

easing of bearish pressure and above 94.476 to target 95.167-587 where the

55-DMA is located. Layers of support remain with bears needing a close below

93.061 to reconfirm focus on 2017 lows and the 91.919-92.548 region where the

200-WMA, 2016 & 2017 lows are situated.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Focused On 2017 Lows

*RES 4: 2.267 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: 2.258 - High Aug 9

*RES 2: 2.234 - Hourly resistance Aug 10

*RES 1: 2.210 - Hourly support Aug 10 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.201 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.160 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The 2.258 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the yield

capped ahead before heading sharply lower. The close below 2.212 reconfirms

focus on tests of 2017 lows with a close below needed to target 1.991-2.205

where the 100-WMA is noted. Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing

a close above 2.234 to gain breathing room and above 2.258 to shift focus back

to 2.267-289 where key DMAs are noted.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below $47.86 

*RES 4: $50.44 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $50.22 - High Aug 10 

*RES 2: $49.52 - Hourly resistance Aug 10a 

*RES 1: $48.93 - Hourly resistance Aug 10

*PRICE: $48.46 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.38 - Low Aug 1 

*SUP 2: $48.30 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $48.25 - Low July 27 

*SUP 4: $47.86 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to $47.86-48.38 is a concern for

bears who need a close below the $47.86 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure

and below the 55-DMA ($46.87) to hint at a move back to $42.28 with below $45.16

to confirm. Initial resistance is noted at $48.93 but bulls need a close above

$49.52 to ease bearish pressure and return focus to key resistance $50.22-51.20

where the 200-DMA ($51.20) is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Shifts to 2017 High, $1270.0 Support Key

*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 2: $1293.2 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $1288.2 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1284.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1283.5 - Hourly support Aug 10 

*SUP 2: $1280.8 - High June 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $1277.7 - Hourly support Aug 10a 

*SUP 4: $1270.0 - Hourly support Aug 9

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA Tuesday provided the base for

a move that has taken out $1280.8 with immediate focus now on 2017 highs. Layers

of support continue to build with bears needing a close below $1270.0 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and to shift focus back to $1253.3-1256.6 where

key DMAs and the daily bull channel base are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]