MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.1828 High Aug 21 

*RES 2: $1.1795 Hourly support Aug 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1773 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1760 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1745 Low Aug 22 

*SUP 2: $1.1709 Hourly support Aug 18 

*SUP 3: $1.1663 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 4: $1.1648 Low July 27

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble the key $1.1863 resistance is a concern for

bulls and leaves the pair looking a little heavy. The close below $1.1773 sees

focus return to layers of support $1.1663-1.1709. The $1.1583 support remains

key. Bears need a close below $1.1583 to end bullish hopes and initially target

the 55-DMA ($1.1515). Above $1.1863 is needed to return pressure to

$1.1902-1.2057.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.2845 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $1.2924 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.2916 High Aug 21 

*RES 2: $1.2894 Hourly support Aug 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.2845 Hourly resistance Aug 22

*PRICE: $1.2822 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2797 Low June 28 

*SUP 2: $1.2759 High June 26 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2703 Low June 26 

*SUP 4: $1.2680 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA took its toll Tuesday with a

sell-off that now sees immediate pressure on $1.2797. Bears now look for a close

below this level to confirm focus on $1.2647-1.2703 where the 55-WMA & 200-DMA

($1.2647) are located. Bulls now need a close above $1.2845 to gain breathing

room and above the 55-DMA to shift focus to $1.2990-1.3006 where the 21-DMA is

located. Daily studies lingering at O/S levels is a concern for bears.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.10 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y110.61 Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y110.37 High Aug 17 

*RES 2: Y110.26 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: Y110.03 Hourly resistance Aug 17

*PRICE: Y109.37 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.13 Hourly support Aug 22 

*SUP 2: Y108.61 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the key Y108.10

level. Bears need a close below Y108.10 to shift immediate focus to Y106.95 and

overall focus to Y98.95-101.16 where 2016 lows are noted. The Y110.61 resistance

remains key with bulls needing a close above to return focus to Y111.05-23 and

above this region to target the 200-DMA (Y112.55). Bears look for a close below

Y109.13 to retain focus on the key Y108.10 support.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.18-130.39 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y130.39 High Aug 16 

*RES 3: Y129.82 Hourly resistance Aug 16 

*RES 2: Y129.49 Hourly resistance Aug 17a

*RES 1: Y129.18 High Aug 22

*PRICE: Y128.99 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.82 Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support 

*SUP 2: Y128.41 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y128.13 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y128.08 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 55-DMA lacked follow through Friday which is a

concern given daily studies at modestly O/S levels and the proximity of the

Bollinger base (Y127.99). Bears continue to look for a close below Y127.43 to

target Y124.70-125.80 where the 100-DMA (Y125.22) is found. Layers of resistance

remain with bulls now needing a close above Y129.18 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above Y130.39 to shift focus back to 2017 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.9149

*RES 4: Gbp0.9365 2016 High Oct 6

*RES 3: Gbp0.9256 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: Gbp0.9224 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Gbp0.9210 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Gbp0.9172 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9149 High Aug 18 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9111 Low Aug 21, Rising Daily TL 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9052 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 10mth highs continue with O/B daily studies a key

concern for bulls who are focused on the daily bull channel top. Layers of

support continue to emerge which add support to the bullish case. Bears still

need a close below Gbp0.9149 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.9091 to shift

initial focus back to Gbp0.8988-0.9052. Below Gbp0.9043 remains needed to target

Gbp0.8943-94 where the bull channel base is located.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7963

*RES 4: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 3: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*RES 2: $0.7963 - High Aug 17

*RES 1: $0.7929 - Hourly resistance Aug 22

*PRICE: $0.7891 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7867 - Hourly resistance Aug 16a now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7855 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $0.7849 - Hourly support Aug 16 

*SUP 4: $0.7807 - Low Aug 15

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of $0.7949 last

week was less than ideal for bulls. The $0.7867 support remains key this week

with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and

shift focus back to $0.7749-0.7809 where the 55-DMA ($0.7767) is noted. Bulls

still need a close above $0.7963 to shift focus back to $0.8044-65 where 2017

highs are found.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.268 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 2: 94.145 - High Aug 16 

*RES 1: 93.791 - Hourly resistance Aug 17

*PRICE: 93.496 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.390 - Hourly support Aug 22

*SUP 2: 93.268 - Hourly support Aug 22

*SUP 3: 92.934 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 4: 92.770 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support layers building as the index recovers

lost ground, bouncing ahead of 92.934 Aug 8 lows. Bulls still need a close above

93.582 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 93.791 to shift focus back

to the key 94.145-476 region. Above 94.476 then confirms focus on 95.079-464

where the 55-DMA (95.079) is situated. Bears now look for a close below 93.268

to retain focus on tests of 2017 lows and the 91.919-92.548 region as a whole.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.229 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8

*RES 3: 2.264 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17

*PRICE: 2.210 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.192 - Hourly support Aug 21 

*SUP 2: 2.177 - Low Aug 21 

*SUP 3: 2.164 - Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: 2.121 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Modestly O/S daily studies are correcting & combined with the

Bollinger base (2.167) are key concerns for bears who are focused on tests of

2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.229 to ease bearish

pressure and above 2.264 to shift initial focus back to 2.289. While 2.229 caps

bears retain the advantage with below 2.164 needed to add weight to their case.

Fresh 2017 lows target 2.053-121 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) $46.63 & 21-DMA Levels Key 

*RES 4: $49.30 - High Aug 14 

*RES 3: $48.73 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $48.59 - Hourly resistance Aug 21a 

*RES 1: $48.21 - High Aug 22

*PRICE: $47.73 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $47.47 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: $47.21 - Low Aug 21 

*SUP 3: $46.94 - Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: $46.90 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the recovery from last week's low

with the sell-off ahead of $49.30 taking out $48.33 Monday and shifting focus

back to layers of support $46.63-47.47. Bears still need a close below $46.63 to

end bullish hopes and initially target $45.31-59 with overall focus on $42.51

June lows. Initial resistance is noted at $48.21 but bulls look for a close

above the 21-DMA to see focus return to $49.30.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1267.5-1277.7 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1311.1 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1300.8 - 2017 High Aug 18 

*RES 2: $1297.1 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1293.9 - High Aug 21

*PRICE: $1284.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.6 - Hourly support Aug 21 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1276.7 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $1274.0 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 10mth highs Friday lacked follow through but the

bounce from ahead of $1277.7 saw bulls reconfirming dominance and pressure

remain on 2017 highs. The $1267.5-1277.7 support region remains key. Bears need

a close below $1277.7 to ease bullish pressure and below $1267.5 to confirm

break of the 21-DMA and bull channel base, shifting initial focus to 55 &

100-DMAs ($1254.2-1256.8).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]