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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

25 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Narrowing Bollinger Bands Suggest Breakout
*RES 4: $1.1976 High Jan 5 2015 
*RES 3: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 
*RES 2: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.1828 High Aug 21
*PRICE: $1.1795 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1773 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 2: $1.1740 Low Aug 23 
*SUP 3: $1.1709 Hourly support Aug 18 
*SUP 4: $1.1663 Low Aug 17
*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to find support on dips with pressure remaining
on key resistance layers. Bulls still look for a close above $1.1861 to test
2017 highs with a close above current 2017 highs needed to target $1.1976-1.2097
where the bull channel top is located. Narrowing Bollinger bands are suggestive
of a breakout. Bears look for a close below $1.1773 to ease pressure on
resistance layers and below $1.1740 to pressure $1.1583-1.1663.
     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.2845 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: $1.2922 55-DMA 
*RES 3: $1.2916 High Aug 21 
*RES 2: $1.2894 Hourly support Aug 22 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.2845 Hourly resistance Aug 22
*PRICE: $1.2810 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2770 Low Aug 24 
*SUP 2: $1.2759 High June 26 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.2703 Low June 26 
*SUP 4: $1.2680 55-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA took its toll Tuesday with a
sell-off that sees bears now focused on $1.2587-1.2703 where the 200-DMA
($1.2652) and 55-WMA are located. O/S daily studies remain the key concern for
bears. In saying that, bulls still need a close above $1.2845 to gain breathing
room and above the 55-DMA to shift focus to $1.2977-1.3031 where the 21-DMA is
located.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y110.37
*RES 4: Y110.37 High Aug 17 
*RES 3: Y110.03 Hourly resistance Aug 17 
*RES 2: Y109.90 21-DMA 
*RES 1: Y109.83 High Aug 23
*PRICE: Y109.57 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.46 High Aug 24 now support 
*SUP 2: Y109.06 Hourly support Aug 24 
*SUP 3: Y108.61 Low Aug 18 
*SUP 4: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17
*COMMENTARY: The Y107.45-108.10 support remains key. Bears need a close below
Y108.10 to hint at a shift lower with below Y107.47 to confirm immediate focus
on Y106.95 and overall focus on Y99.08-101.16. The Y110.37 resistance is now key
with bulls needing a close above to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear
channel top (Y109.93), returning focus to Y111.05-33 and above this region to
target the 200-DMA (Y112.53).
     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21 & 55-DMAs Key
*RES 4: Y130.39 High Aug 16 
*RES 3: Y129.82 Hourly resistance Aug 16 
*RES 2: Y129.55 21-DMA
*RES 1: Y129.49 Hourly resistance Aug 17a & 25
*PRICE: Y129.25 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.15 Hourly support Aug 25 
*SUP 2: Y128.69 Hourly support Aug 24 
*SUP 3: Y128.29 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y127.43 Low June 30
*COMMENTARY: Dips back towards the 55-DMA have continued to find support with
hesitation around the 21-DMA now a concern. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA
to add support to the case for a move back to 2017 highs with above Y130.39
confirming a shift higher in focus. The 55-DMA is now key support. Bears look
for a close below the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus back to Y127.43 and then
Y125.31-1263.47 where the 100-DMA is noted.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.9149-78 Support Key Today
*RES 4: Gbp0.9412 Monthly high Oct 2009
*RES 3: Gbp0.9365 2016 High Oct 6
*RES 2: Gbp0.9271 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 1: Gbp0.9236 2017 High Aug 23
*PRICE: Gbp0.9209 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.9189 Hourly support Aug 23a 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.9178 High Aug 23 now support 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.9149 High Aug 18 now support, Rising Daily TL 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.9111 Low Aug 21
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of recent 2017 & 10mth highs with daily studies at
very O/B levels and momentum waning is less than ideal for bulls who are
currently focused on the daily bull channel top and then 2016 highs above.
Support emerging on dips this week provides bulls comfort with a close below
Gbp0.9178 to ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.9149 to shift focus back to
Gbp0.9043-89 where the 21-DMA (Gbp0.9081) is located.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bull Channel Base Supporting
*RES 4: $0.8044 - High Aug 1
*RES 3: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1
*RES 2: $0.7963 - High Aug 17
*RES 1: $0.7914 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7901 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7872 - Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 2: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24 
*SUP 3: $0.7849 - Hourly support Aug 16 
*SUP 4: $0.7807 - Low Aug 15
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of $0.7949 last
week was less than ideal for bulls. In saying that, yet another correction found
support around the daily bull channel base. Bears look for a close below $0.7863
to confirm an easing of bullish pressure & shift focus back to $0.7710-0.7807
where the 55-DMA ($0.7780) is noted. Bulls still need a close above $0.7963 to
shift focus back to $0.8044-65 where 2017 highs are found.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Remains On 2017 Low
*RES 4: 94.145 - High Aug 16 
*RES 3: 93.791 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 
*RES 2: 93.628 - High Aug 23 
*RES 1: 93.451 - Hourly resistance Aug 23
*PRICE: 93.301 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 93.126 - Low Aug 23
*SUP 2: 92.934 - Low Aug 8
*SUP 3: 92.764 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 92.679 - Low Aug 3
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the recovery from the week's low with
focus remaining on 2017 lows and the 91.919-92.548 region as a whole. Daily
studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower with the Bollinger base likely to
be the key concern. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above
93.791 to shift focus back to the key 94.145-476 region. Above 94.476 then
confirms focus on 94.932-95.464 where the 55-DMA (94.932) is situated.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Remains on 2017 Low
*RES 4: 2.264 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance 
*RES 3: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 2: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 
*RES 1: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.189 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.173 - Low Aug 24 
*SUP 2: 2.164 - Low Aug 18 
*SUP 3: 2.156 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: 2.121 - Low June 26
*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of the 2.229 resistance added to the significance of
this level and resulted in bears remaining focused on tests of 2017 lows. A
close below 2.103 is needed to shift immediate bearish focus to the 100-WMA
(2.053) and overall focus to tests of 1.879. The 2.229 resistance remains key
with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above 2.264 to
shift initial focus back to 2.289.
     NYMEX WTI: (V17) $46.63 & $49.30 Levels Key 
*RES 4: $48.59 - Hourly resistance Aug 21a 
*RES 3: $48.35 - 100-DMA 
*RES 2: $48.09 - Hourly support Aug 24 now resistance 
*RES 1: $47.93 - Hourly resistance Aug 24
*PRICE: $47.77 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $47.37 - Hourly support Aug 24 
*SUP 2: $47.07 - Low Aug 24 
*SUP 3: $46.95 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: $46.63 - Low Aug 17
*COMMENTARY: Dips below the bull channel base are less than ideal for bulls
following hesitation ahead of 21 & 100-DMAs. Layers of resistance accumulating
is also a concern for bulls who look for a close above $49.30 to confirm breaks
of 21 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to $50.18-51.25 where the bear channel
top and 200-DMA are situated. Bears now look for a close below $46.63 to end
bullish hopes and target $45.31-59.
SPOT GOLD: $1267.5-1277.7 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $1316.0 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: $1300.8 - 2017 High Aug 18 
*RES 2: $1298.5 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: $1293.9 - High Aug 21
*PRICE: $1285.9 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1284.4 - Low Aug 24 
*SUP 2: $1280.8 - Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 3: $1277.7 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 4: $1276.3 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Recent fresh 2017 and 10mth highs lacked follow through but bounces
ahead of $1277.7 see bulls reconfirming dominance and focus on 2017 highs. The
$1267.5-1277.7 support region remains key. Bears now need a close below the
21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $1267.5 to shift initial focus to 55 &
100-DMAs ($1254.8-1257.5). Bulls need a close above $1293.9 to gain breathing
room.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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