MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

31 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Back On $1.1828-61

*RES 4: $1.2009 Hourly support Aug30a now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.1984 High Aug 30 

*RES 2: $1.1939 Hourly support Aug 30 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1898 Hourly resistance Aug 31

*PRICE: $1.1882 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1861 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1828 High Aug 21 now resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.1814 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1730 Low Aug 21

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Tuesday's high has been followed up

with losses that leave the pair looking heavy and focus back on $1.1828-61.

Bears now look for a close below $1.1828 to shift focus back to $1.1648-1.1709

where the daily bull channel base ($1.1688) is located. Layers of resistance are

building with bulls needing a close above $1.1939 to gain breathing room and

above $1.1984 to target the bull channel top ($1.2142).

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2978

*RES 4: $1.3031 High Aug 10 

*RES 3: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $1.2978 High Aug 29 

*RES 1: $1.2938 High Aug 30

*PRICE: $1.2926 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2905 Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 2: $1.2868 Hourly support Aug 25 

*SUP 3: $1.2845 Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2813 Hourly support Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-DMA ($1.2938) as bulls look

for a close above $1.2978 to confirm focus on $1.3031 and above this level to

shift focus back to $1.3157-1.3278. Layers of support remain in place with bears

again needing a close below $1.2905 to ease pressure on the 55 & 21-DMAs and

below $1.2845 to return pressure to $1.2770.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.83

*RES 4: Y111.33 High July 28 

*RES 3: Y111.18 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.05 High Aug 4 

*RES 1: Y110.91 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y110.48 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.12 Hourly support Aug 30 

*SUP 2: Y109.83 Hourly support Aug 30a 

*SUP 3: Y109.41 Hourly resistance Aug 28 now support 

*SUP 4: Y108.96 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support

*COMMENTARY: The Y108.10 support confirmed significance with the pair bouncing

aggressively. The recovery continued Wednesday with the pair now hinting at a

move back to Y111.05-33 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Bulls continue to look

for a close above Y111.33 to end bearish hopes and initially target Y112.19-49

where the 200-DMA is noted. Bears now need a close below Y109.83 to signal a

false break of Y110.37 and below Y109.41 to shift focus back to Y107.47-108.10.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.87

*RES 4: Y132.79 High Dec 22 2015 

*RES 3: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016 

*RES 2: Y131.70 High Aug 30

*RES 1: Y131.62 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y131.27 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.87 Low Aug 30 

*SUP 2: Y130.30 Hourly resistance Aug 29a now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.88 Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 4: Y129.60 Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: The Y129.37 support confirmed significance with support emerging

ahead of this level Tuesday. The Y129.37 support remains key with bears needing

a close below to shift focus back to the 55-DMA (Y128.88). The recovery from

Tuesday's dip has resulted in fresh 2017 highs with bulls now focused on

Y132.23-79 where 2016 highs are located. Initial support is noted at Y130.87

with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: Gbp0.9280 Hourly support Aug 29 now resistance

*RES 3: Gbp0.9270 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Gbp0.9248 Low Aug 29 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.9215 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.9194 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9189 Hourly support Aug 23a 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9149 High Aug 18 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9136 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: After a stellar run the pair looks a little heavy with an increased

risk of a correction initially to Gbp0.9136-49. Bears now need a close below the

21-DMA to hint at move lower that targets Gbp0.8958-88 where the bull channel

base and 55-DMA are situated. Layers of resistance and correcting O/B studies

are adding weight to the correction case. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.9248

to regain the upper hand and retain focus on 2016 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7863 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7996 - High Aug 30

*RES 3: $0.7977 - Hourly support Aug 30a now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7950 - Hourly support Aug 30 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7923 - Hourly resistance Aug 31

*PRICE: $0.7903 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7886 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 2: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24 

*SUP 3: $0.7807 - Low Aug 15

*SUP 4: $0.7802 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sharp reversal lower from the day's highs sees the pair

flirting with the daily bull channel base ($0.7906) and looking a little heavy.

The $0.7863 support remains key today with bears needing a close below to

confirm a break of the channel base and shift immediate focus to $0.7780-0.7807

where the 55-DMA is situated. Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower

with bulls needing a close above $0.7950 to shift focus back to $0.7996-0.8065.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.117

*RES 4: 93.791 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 3: 93.628 - High Aug 23 

*RES 2: 93.451 - Hourly resistance Aug 23 

*RES 1: 93.117 - Hourly support Aug 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 93.010 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.579 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 92.251 - Low Aug 30

*SUP 3: 91.621 - 2017 Low Aug 29

*SUP 4: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 2+ year lows for the index lacked follow through

with the Bollinger base (92.345) remaining an issue and leaving the move looking

a little overdone at Tuesday's lows. The recovery Wednesday sees pressure back

on the 93.117 resistance. Bulls need a close above 93.117 to shift focus back to

93.451-94.145. As layers of support build bears now need a close below 92.579 to

retain focus on 2017 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.155-180 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 3: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 2.155 - Low Aug 28 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.150 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.133 - Low Aug 30 

*SUP 2: 2.119 - Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: 2.054 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of 2.229 in previous weeks resulted in fresh 2017 and

10mth lows with bears now initially focused on 1.991-2.054 and overall focus on

1.879 (breakout level from Nov 2016). The recovery has stalled ahead of the

2.155-180 region. Bulls need a close above 2.155 to gain breathing room and

above 2.180 to shift focus back to 2.206-2.229. Bears look for a close below

2.119 to gain breathing room.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Below $45.21 Targets June Low 

*RES 4: $47.20 - Hourly resistance Aug 28 

*RES 3: $46.96 - High Aug 2 

*RES 2: $46.72 - High Aug 30 

*RES 1: $46.18 - Hourly resistance Aug 30

*PRICE: $45.92 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $45.62 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $45.58 - Low July 24 

*SUP 3: $45.21 - High July 10 now support 

*SUP 4: $44.01 - Low July 10

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the $48.91-49.31 resistance region has resulted

in a sell-off and closes below the 55-DMA ($46.92) with immediate focus back on

$45.21-58. Bears need a close below $45.21 to shift focus to $42.52 June lows.

Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls now needing a close above

$46.18 to gain breathing and above $47.20 to return focus to layers of

resistance $47.98-49.31.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1295.5 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $1326.1 - 2017 high Aug 29 

*RES 2: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 

*RES 1: $1304.8 - Low Aug 30 now resistance

*PRICE: $1303.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1295.5 - Hourly support Aug 28a 

*SUP 2: $1289.8 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $1287.9 - Hourly support Aug 25 

*SUP 4: $1284.5 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 2017 and 10mth highs is a

concern for bulls with the Bollinger top ($1314.6) remaining an issue. The

$1295.5 support remains key with bears needing a close below to shift focus back

to $1275.3-1284.5 where the 21-DMA is situated. While $1295.5 supports bulls

remain focused on $1337.4-1352.6 where Sept highs are noted. Bulls need a close

above $1304.8 to gain breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]