MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2070 High Aug 29 

*RES 3: $1.2009 Hourly support Aug 30a now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1984 High Aug 30 

*RES 1: $1.1894 Hourly resistance Sept 1

*PRICE: $1.1886 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1823 Low Sept 1 

*SUP 2: $1.1821 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1730 Low Aug 21 

*SUP 4: $1.1710 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Having lacked follow through on fresh 2017 and 2+ year highs last

week the pair saw pressure return to the 21-DMA with the rejection ahead of

$1.1984 Friday a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears still need a close

below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus to

$1.1648-1.1710 where the channel base is noted. Bulls still need a close above

$1.1984 to reconfirm focus on the bull channel top ($1.2164).

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995-1.3031 Resistance Key

*RES 4: $1.3048 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1.3031 High Aug 10 

*RES 2: $1.2995 High Sept 1 

*RES 1: $1.2979 Hourly resistance Sept 1

*PRICE: $1.2954 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2941 Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: $1.2905 Low Sept 1 

*SUP 3: $1.2895 Hourly resistance Aug 31 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2853 Low Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-DMA ($1.2940) as bulls look

for a close above $1.2995 to confirm focus on $1.3031 and above this level to

shift focus back to $1.3157-1.3278. Layers of support remain in place with bears

still needing a close below $1.2895 to ease pressure on the 55 & 21-DMAs and

below $1.2845 to return pressure to $1.2770.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.67-111.33 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y110.75 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y110.67 High Aug 31 

*RES 2: Y110.48 High Sept 1 

*RES 1: Y109.93 Hourly resistance Sept 4

*PRICE: Y109.82 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.29 Hourly support Sept 4 

*SUP 2: Y108.96 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: A volatile week saw the pair capped ahead of the Y111.05-33 region

where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated which retained bearish focus on tests of the

key Y107.47-108.10 region. The Y110.67-111.33 resistance region is seen as key

this week. Bulls need a close above Y111.33 to end bearish hopes and target

Y112.18-46 where the 200-DMA is situated. Bears look for a close below Y107.47

to shift immediate focus to Y106.95.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of Channel Base

*RES 4: Y131.70 2017 High Aug 30

*RES 3: Y131.61 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y131.35 High Sept 1

*RES 1: Y130.62 Hourly resistance Sept 4

*PRICE: Y130.47 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.33 Hourly resistance Sept 4 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.30 Hourly resistance Aug 29a now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.93 Hourly support Sept 4 

*SUP 4: Y129.60 Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on the dip below the 21-DMA

(Y129.71) in early Asian trading Monday. The 55-DMA and daily bull channel base

(Y129.11) are key supports. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to Y127.43.

Correcting modestly O/B studies and the Bollinger top (Y131.61) are key concerns

for bulls but while the 55-DMA supports bulls focus on retests of 2017 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.9270 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: Gbp0.9248 Low Aug 29 now resistance

*RES 2: Gbp0.9238 High Aug 31

*RES 1: Gbp0.9186 Low Aug 31 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.9171 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9186 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9149 High Aug 18 now support, 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9049 Low Aug 15

*COMMENTARY: After a stellar run the pair looks a little heavy with immediate

pressure having returned to the 21-DMA. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to

hint at move lower that targets Gbp0.8973-0.9049 where the bull channel base

(Gbp0.9003) and 55-DMA (Gbp0.8973) are situated. Layers of resistance and

correcting O/B studies are adding weight to the correction case. Bulls need a

close above Gbp0.9248 to regain the upper hand and retain focus on 2016 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7917 & 0.7996 Levels Key

*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: $0.7996 - High Aug 30

*RES 1: $0.7985 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $0.7958 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7937 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7917 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: $0.7822 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $0.7863 support confirmed significance Thursday with the pair

having looked heavy before bouncing aggressively. Hesitation ahead of $0.7996 is

now less than ideal for bulls with the Bollinger top currently limiting follow

through. Bulls need a close above $0.7996 to reconfirm focus on $0.8044-65 and

above $0.8065 to reconfirm the bullish bias and target 2015 highs ($0.8165).

Bears still need a close below $0.7917 to return pressure to $0.7863.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.347

*RES 4: 93.628 - High Aug 23 

*RES 3: 93.451 - Hourly resistance Aug 23 

*RES 2: 93.347 - High Aug 31 

*RES 1: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31

*PRICE: 92.649 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.452 - Hourly support Sept 1

*SUP 2: 92.100 - Low Sept 1

*SUP 3: 91.621 - 2017 Low Aug 29

*SUP 4: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2017 and 2+ year lows appears to be in

trouble with a rejection above the 21-DMA (93.152) Thursday. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 93.347 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to

93.628-94.476 where the 55-DMA (94.417) is noted. While 93.347 caps bears remain

focused on 91.514 with a close below needed to target 89.776-90.325.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.180

*RES 4: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.200 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 2.166 - Hourly resistance Aug 31

*PRICE: 2.157 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.138 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: 2.099 - Low Sept 1 

*SUP 3: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: 2.055 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls gain confidence following Friday bounce from ahead of recent

2017 lows that sees pressure back on the 2.180 resistance. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 2.180 to shift initial focus back to 2.200-2.229. Initial

support is now noted at 2.138 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure

on 2.180 and reconfirm focus on 2.055-088 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are

situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $48.91 - High Aug 21 

*RES 3: $48.07 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: $47.84 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $47.51 - Hourly resistance Sept 4

*PRICE: $47.41 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $46.92 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 2: $46.56 - Low Sept 1 

*SUP 3: $45.84 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $45.58 - Low July 24 & Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to the $45.21-58 support region bears

failed to manage the close below needed to shift overall focus back to tests of

$42.52 June lows. The bounce Thursday provided bulls breathing room with bulls

still looking for a close above the 100-DMA ($48.07) to return immediate focus

to $48.91-49.31. The Bollinger band base ($45.82) remains the key concern for

bears and recently limited follow through.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Targeting 2016 High

*RES 4: $1352.6 - Monthly High Sept 7 2016 

*RES 3: $1343.6 - High Sept 22 2016 

*RES 2: $1338.4 - 2017 High Sept 4 

*RES 1: $1336.6 - Hourly resistance Sept 3

*PRICE: $1333.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1328.8 - High Sept 4 

*SUP 2: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 3: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $1298.4 - Low Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: A gapping move higher to start the new week has resulted in fresh

2017 and 12mth highs with immediate bullish focus now on $1343.6-1375.2 where

2016 highs are located. The Bollinger top ($1329.9) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears now need a close below $1328.8 to gain breathing room and below

$1313.7 to shift initial focus back to $1291.7-1295.5 where the 21-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]