MNI Global Week Ahead - US CPI and UK Labour Market Data
MNI (LONDON) - THROUGH THE WEEK - China Economic Data
Wednesday’s CPI inflation report for October headlines the US macro calendar next week. Consensus looks for core CPI inflation of 0.3% M/M after again surprising higher than expected with 0.31% M/M in September. Initial unrounded estimates that we’ve seen suggest this is expected to be a “genuine” 0.3 print with an early average a little above 0.30%. Used cars are expected to provide a sizeable boost. Shelter is expected to hold onto much of its latest moderation although it remains at rates that are above pre-pandemic norms. Core services ex-housing will again be watched having surprised higher than any estimate we’d seen for September but in a move driven by CPI-specific categories that didn’t fully translate into core PCE and limited the market reaction. PPI follows on Thursday and could have important core PCE implications. With Fed Funds currently pricing about 17bp of cuts for the December decision, we expect sensitivity to surprises in either direction although labor data arguably remains in the driving seat for now.
THURSDAY – Eurozone Preliminary (Second) Q3 GDP Reading
The preliminary (second) reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP is due on Thursday. Sequential quarterly GDP growth is expected to be unchanged from the advance reading of 0.4% Q/Q (which was above the ECB’s 0.2% projection from September). As such, more interest will lie in the employment growth and real productivity metrics. The ECB project employment growth at 0.1% Q/Q and real productivity per employee growth at 0.2% Q/Q. If realised, this would be the first positive sequential productivity reading in six quarters. However, we note that productivity surprised the ECB to the downside in Q1 and Q2. A recovery in productivity growth underpins the ECB’s forecast for easing unit labour costs through 2026. Such a dynamic is a pre-requisite for further disinflation in services HICP, which has been sticky around 4% Y/Y throughout 2024.
THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)
Most analysts expect Banxico to deliver another 25bp cut in November, taking the overnight rate to 10.25%. With the balance of risks to growth remaining biased to the downside and the most recent vote split shifting in a dovish direction, the continuation of a gradual easing cycle appears most likely at this juncture. However, a hawkish surprise cannot be completely ruled out amid stubborn headline inflation and significant MXN volatility in recent weeks.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
09/11/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | CPI |
09/11/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index |
09/11/2024 | 1525/1625 | EU | ECB's Lagarde in Climate risks event | |
11/11/2024 | 0500/1400 | JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
11/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | NO | CPI Norway |
11/11/2024 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
11/11/2024 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
11/11/2024 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
11/11/2024 | - | GB | DMO quarterly investors/GEMM consultation | |
12/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | DE | HICP (f) |
12/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
12/11/2024 | 0900/0900 | GB | BOE's Pill panellist at UBS conference on Reversing tightening | |
12/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
12/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
12/11/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
12/11/2024 | 1100/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
12/11/2024 | 1200/1200 | GB | Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report | |
12/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Building Permits |
12/11/2024 | 1400/1500 | EU | ECB's Cipollone chairing policy panel on financial sanctions | |
12/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
12/11/2024 | 1515/1015 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
12/11/2024 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
12/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
12/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
12/11/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
12/11/2024 | 1900/1400 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
12/11/2024 | 2130/1630 | US | New York Fed's Roberto Perli | |
12/11/2024 | 2200/1700 | US | Philly Fed's Pat Harker | |
13/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | Quarterly wage price index |
13/11/2024 | 0945/0945 | GB | BOE's Mann at Female Central Bankers panel | |
13/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Industrial Production |
13/11/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
13/11/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
13/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
13/11/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
13/11/2024 | 1445/0945 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
13/11/2024 | 1800/1300 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
13/11/2024 | 1830/1330 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeffrey Schmid | |
13/11/2024 | 1900/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
14/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | Labor Force Survey |
14/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | Inflation Report |
14/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (f) |
14/11/2024 | 0830/0930 | EU | ECB's De Guindos remarks at event organised by ABC and Deloitte | |
14/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | GDP (p) |
14/11/2024 | 1200/0700 | US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
14/11/2024 | 1230/1330 | EU | Publication of the ECB MonPol meeting account | |
14/11/2024 | - | GB | Rachel Reeves’ debut Mansion House dinner speech as chancellor | |
14/11/2024 | 1300/1300 | GB | BOE's Mann at Revitalising the global economy event | |
14/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
14/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
14/11/2024 | 1415/0915 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
14/11/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
14/11/2024 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
14/11/2024 | 1830/1930 | EU | ECB's Schnabel in panel on "Reassessing policy tools" | |
14/11/2024 | 1900/1400 | *** | MX | Mexico Interest Rate |
14/11/2024 | 2000/1500 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
14/11/2024 | 2100/2100 | GB | BOE's Bailey speech at Mansion House | |
14/11/2024 | 2115/1615 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
15/11/2024 | 2350/0850 | *** | JP | Japan GDP 1st Estimate |
15/11/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
15/11/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Retail Sales |
15/11/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Industrial Output |
15/11/2024 | 0200/1000 | ** | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
15/11/2024 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
15/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Unemployment |
15/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
15/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | GDP First Estimate |
15/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
15/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Index of Production |
15/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
15/11/2024 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
15/11/2024 | 0730/0730 | GB | DMO to publish FQ4 (Jan-Mar) gilt operations calendar | |
15/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (f) |
15/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | * | CH | CH Flash GDP |
15/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | Italy Final HICP |
15/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
15/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
15/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
15/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
15/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
15/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
15/11/2024 | 1400/0900 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
15/11/2024 | 1415/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
15/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
15/11/2024 | 1500/1600 | EU | ECB's Lane at seminar on Fragmenting Trading System | |
15/11/2024 | 1515/1615 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in discussion on productivity |