MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

7 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1823 & $1.1984 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $1.2070 High Aug 29 

*RES 3: $1.2009 Hourly support Aug 30a now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1984 High Aug 30 

*RES 1: $1.1950 High Sept 6

*PRICE: $1.1927 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1903 Hourly support Sept 6 

*SUP 2: $1.1868 Low Sept 5 

*SUP 3: $1.1842 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1823 Low Sept 1

*COMMENTARY: Having lacked follow through on fresh 2017 and 2+ year highs last

week the pair saw pressure return to the 21-DMA with the rejection ahead of

$1.1984 Friday a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears still need a close

below $1.1823 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus to

$1.1648-1.1743 where the channel base is noted. Bulls look for a close above

$1.1984 to reconfirm focus on the bull channel top ($1.2197).

     CABLE TECHS: Below $1.3019 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $1.3187 Low Aug 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3164 High Aug 4 

*RES 2: $1.3082 High Sept 6 

*RES 1: $1.3064 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1.3030 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3019 Low Sept 6 

*SUP 2: $1.3000 Hourly support Sept 5 

*SUP 3: $1.2979 Hourly support Sept 5a 

*SUP 4: $1.2965 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Cable managed a dip below the 21 ($1.2921) & 100 ($1.2920) DMAs

Tuesday before rallying sharply for a bullish close that shifted bullish focus

to the $1.3164 Aug 4 high. Daily studies approaching O/B and the Bollinger top

are key concerns for bulls. Layers of support are building with bears now

needing a close below $1.3019 to ease bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to

shift focus back to $1.2757-70.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.93 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y110.67 High Aug 31 

*RES 3: Y110.48 High Sept 1 

*RES 2: Y109.93 High Sept 4 

*RES 1: Y109.55 Hourly resistance Sept

*PRICE: Y109.07 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.71 Hourly support Sept 6 

*SUP 2: Y108.46 Low Sept 6 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking a little heavy yesterday support has again emerged

on a dip back towards the key Y107.47-108.10 supports. Bears continue to look

for a close below Y107.47 to shift immediate focus to Y106.95 and overall focus

to Y99.08-101.15. The Y109.93 resistance remains key. Bulls continue to look for

a close above Y109.93 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to

Y110.67-111.33 where 55 (Y111.00) & 100 (Y111.18) DMAs are located.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.52 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y131.35 High Sept 1

*RES 2: Y130.70 High Sept 4

*RES 1: Y130.39 High Sept 6

*PRICE: Y130.05 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.89 Hourly support Sept 7 

*SUP 2: Y129.42 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.31 Low Aug 22 

*SUP 4: Y127.81 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base (Y129.55)

bears have failed to manage the close below needed to confirm a break of the

daily bull channel base, ending bullish hopes and shifting initial focus back to

Y127.43 June 30 lows. Layers of resistance remain with the Y130.36-70 region key

today. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y130.70 to shift focus back to

131.35-70.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: Gbp0.9226 High Sept 4

*RES 3: Gbp0.9213 High Sept 5

*RES 2: Gbp0.9174 Hourly support Sept 4 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.9164 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.9136 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9124 Low Sept 6 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9051 Low Aug 11 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9026 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA took its toll with closes below that add

weight to the case for a move that now targets Gbp0.8992-0.9051 where the 55-DMA

and daily bull channel base are situated. Below the 55-DMA then targets

Gbp0.8888-0.8920. Layers of resistance have accumulated with bulls now needing a

close above Gbp0.9174 to signal a false break of the 21-DMA and shift initial

focus back to Gbp0.9226-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Hesitation Now A Concern

*RES 4: $0.8163 - 2015 High May 14

*RES 3: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*RES 2: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 1: $0.8028 - High Sept 5

*PRICE: $0.7986 @ 00430

*SUP 1: $0.7961 - Low Sept 6 

*SUP 2: $0.7937 - Hourly support Sept 1 

*SUP 3: $0.7920 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $0.8028 level is a concern for bulls with

the Bollinger band top ($0.8016) capping/limiting follow through. Bulls continue

to look for a close above $0.8065 to shift initial focus to tests of

$0.8163-0.8295 where 2015 highs are situated. Bears now look for a close below

$0.7961 to ease pressure on resistance layers and below $0.7920 to see pressure

back on the $0.7863 support.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.936-93.347 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 93.347 - High Aug 31 

*RES 3: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 2: 92.711 - High Sept 4 

*RES 1: 92.445 - Low Sept 4 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.197 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.100 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 91.988 - Low Sept 6

*SUP 3: 91.621 - 2017 Low Aug 29

*SUP 4: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015

*COMMENTARY: The rejection above the 21-DMA (92.969) last Thursday has left the

index looking heavy with bears retaining focus on 91.514-621. A close below

91.514 is still needed to target 89.776-90.325. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above 92.936 to return

pressure to 93.347. The Bollinger base (91.944) remains the key concern for

bears and continues to support/limit follow through.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 100-WMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 3: 2.166 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 2: 2.148 - High Sept 5 

*RES 1: 2.115 - Hourly resistance Sept 5a

*PRICE: 2.093 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.080 - Hourly resistance Sept 6 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.054 - 100-WMA, 2017 Low Sept 6 

*SUP 3: 1.991 - Low Nov 10 

*SUP 4: 1.879 - High Nov 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of 2.180 has resulted in a sell-off and

fresh 2017 & 10mth lows that saw the 100-WMA pressured. Bears look for a close

below the 100-WMA to add weight to the case for a test of 1.879-1.991. The

Bollinger base (2.078) and modestly O/S studies are concerns for bears. In

saying that, bulls now need a close above 2.115 to gain breathing room and above

2.180 to shift initial focus back to 2.206-2.229.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Bears Need Close Below $48.47 

*RES 4: $50.51 - Monthly High Aug 1 

*RES 3: $50.35 - High Aug 10 

*RES 2: $49.68 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: $49.42 - High Sept 6

*PRICE: $49.10 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.78 - Hourly support Sept 6 

*SUP 2: $48.47 - Hourly support Sept 5 

*SUP 3: $48.15 - Hourly resistance Sept 5 now support 

*SUP 4: $47.87 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back to $45.21-58 continues to produce

gains with bulls now looking for a close above the bear channel top to confirm

focus on $50.35-51.27 where monthly highs and the 200-DMA ($51.05) are noted.

Layers of support are accumulating with bears now needing a close below $48.47

to ease bullish pressure and return focus to the 21-DMA. Below the 21-DMA is

needed to see focus return to $45.21-58.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Inside Day

*RES 4: $1353.8 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1352.6 - Monthly High Sept 7 2016 

*RES 2: $1344.4 - 2017 High Sept 5 

*RES 1: $1335.9 - Hourly resistance Sept 7

*PRICE: $1333.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1326.0 - Low Sept 5 

*SUP 2: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 3: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31 

*SUP 4: $1301.8 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A gapping move higher to start the new week saw fresh 2017 and

12mth highs with immediate bullish focus on $1352.6-1375.2 where 2016 highs are

located. The Bollinger top ($1343.4) and O/B studies looking to correct remain

concerns for bulls. Bears need a close below $1326.0 to gain breathing room and

below $1313.7 to shift initial focus back to $1294.6-1304.9 where the 21-DMA is

noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]