MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2070

*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 

*RES 3: $1.2208 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.2187 High Dec 30 2014 

*RES 1: $1.2090 2017 High Sept 8

*PRICE: $1.2056 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2036 Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1984 Hourly support Sept 7 

*SUP 3: $1.1903 Hourly support Sept 6 

*SUP 4: $1.1868 Low Sept 5

*COMMENTARY: Dips back towards the 21-DMA have continued to find support

resulting in fresh 2017 highs in Asia. Bulls still need a close above $1.2070 to

reconfirm the bullish bias and initially target $1.2187-1.2208 where the daily

bull channel top is located. The Bollinger top ($1.2051) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears need a close below $1.12036 to gain breathing room and below

$1.1984 to hint at a correction back to $1.1823-59.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3187

*RES 4: $1.3375 High Sept 8 2016 

*RES 3: $1.3264 2017 High Aug 3 

*RES 2: $1.3187 Low Aug 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3164 High Aug 4

*PRICE: $1.3128 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3116 High Sept 7 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3093 Hourly support Sept 7 

*SUP 3: $1.3063 Hourly support Sept 7a 

*SUP 4: $1.3019 Low Sept 6

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue for the pair with bulls now focused on $1.3164-87.

Bulls need a close above $1.3187 to confirm focus on retests of 2017 highs. The

Bollinger band top ($1.3106), O/B studies and momentum divergence are concerns

for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below $1.3093 to ease

immediate bullish pressure and below $1.3063 to shift initial focus back to

$1.2995-1.3019.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y107.47 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y109.93 High Sept 4 

*RES 3: Y109.55 Hourly resistance Sept 6 

*RES 2: Y108.97 Hourly resistance Sept 7a 

*RES 1: Y108.70 Hourly resistance Sept 7

*PRICE: Y108.18 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.05 Low Sept 7 

*SUP 2: Y107.47 Monthly High July 21 now support 

*SUP 3: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.90 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Wednesday's low lacked topside follow through and

having remained capped ahead of Y109.55-93 has traded at fresh 2017 & 10mth

lows. Bears look for a close below Y107.47 to shift immediate focus to Y106.95

and overall focus to Y99.08-101.15. The Y109.93 resistance remains key. Bulls

look for a close above Y109.93 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to

Y110.67-111.33 where 55 (Y110.94) & 100 (Y111.17) DMAs are located.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y129.25

*RES 4: Y131.70 2017 High Aug 30

*RES 3: Y131.64 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y131.35 High Sept 1

*RES 1: Y131.10 High Sept 7

*PRICE: Y130.50 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.85 Low Sept 7 

*SUP 2: Y129.54 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.25 Low Sept 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.31 Low Aug 22

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base (Y129.70)

bears have failed to manage the close below needed to confirm a break, ending

bullish hopes and shifting initial focus back to Y127.43 June 30 lows.

Thursday's rally lacked follow through but was enough to reconfirm bullish focus

on tests of 2017 highs. The Bollinger top remains a concern with potential to

limit follow through on a break of 2017 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.9248

*RES 4: Gbp0.9248 Low Aug 29 now resistance

*RES 3: Gbp0.9238 High Aug 31

*RES 2: Gbp0.9226 High Sept 4

*RES 1: Gbp0.9213 High Sept 5

*PRICE: Gbp0.9192 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9169 Hourly support Sept 7 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9153 Hourly support Sept 7a 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9118 Low Sept 7 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9091 Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalise further on closes below the 21-DMA

(Gbp0.9172) with the rally from Thursday's lows seeing the pair gaining traction

above the 21-DMA and focus back on Gbp0.9213-48. Bulls need a close above

Gbp0.9248 to return focus to Gbp0.9307-65 where 2016 & 2017 highs and the daily

bull channel top (Gbp0.9346) are noted. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.9153

to pressure Thursday's low and below this level to target Gbp0.8994-0.9048.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.8009-49 Support Key

*RES 4: $0.8376 - High Dec 11 2014

*RES 3: $0.8329 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15

*RES 1: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015

*PRICE: $0.8109 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8068 - Breakout level Sept 8 

*SUP 2: $0.8049 - Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.8040 - Hourly support Sept 8 

*SUP 4: $0.8009 - Hourly support Sept 7

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2mth highs O/N were followed up with fresh 2017 and 2+ year

highs in Asia as bulls shift their focus to tests of $0.8163 last seen in May

2015. Layers of support are accumulating with bears needing a close below

$0.8049 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.8009 to shift focus back

to $0.7920. Below $0.7920 is needed to hint at a deeper correction targeting the

55-DMA ($0.7856).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus On 89.776-90.325

*RES 4: 92.445 - Low Sept 4 now resistance 

*RES 3: 92.100 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: 91.770 - Hourly resistance Sept 7 

*RES 1: 91.405 - Low Sept 7 now resistance

*PRICE: 91.216 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 91.087 - 2017 Low Sept 8

*SUP 2: 90.325 - High Dec 30 2014 now support

*SUP 3: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014 

*SUP 4: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*COMMENTARY: The rejection above the 21-DMA (92.852) continues to See 2017 and

2+ year lows with overall focus having shifted to 89.776-90.325. The Bollinger

base (91.512) is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through. Layers of resistance continue to build and weigh with bulls now needing

a close above 92.100 to ease immediate bearish pressure and hint at a correction

back to 92.711-93.347 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Closes Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: 2.166 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 

*RES 3: 2.148 - High Sept 5 

*RES 2: 2.115 - Hourly resistance Sept 5a 

*RES 1: 2.066 - Hourly resistance Sept 7

*PRICE: 2.042 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.030 - 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 2: 1.991 - Low Nov 10 

*SUP 3: 1.879 - High Nov 1 now support 

*SUP 4: 1.716 - Low Nov 9

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 100-WMA (2.054) adds weight to the bearish case

following fresh 2017 and 10mth lows. Bears look for a weekly close below the

100-WMA for increased significance. Immediate bearish focus has now shifted to

the 1.991 support. The 1.879 support is key with a close below to initially

target 1.716. Bulls now need a close above 2.115 to ease bearish pressure and

above 2.180 to shift initial focus back to 2.206-2.229.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Bears Need Close Below $48.47 

*RES 4: $50.51 - Monthly High Aug 1 

*RES 3: $50.35 - High Aug 10 

*RES 2: $49.63 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: $49.42 - High Sept 6

*PRICE: $49.21 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.93 - Hourly support Sept 7 

*SUP 2: $48.63 - Low Sept 7 

*SUP 3: $48.47 - Hourly support Sept 5 

*SUP 4: $48.15 - Hourly resistance Sept 5 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back to $45.21-58 sees bulls now looking

for a close above the bear channel top to confirm focus on $50.35-51.27 where

monthly highs and the 200-DMA ($51.04) are noted. Layers of support are

accumulating with bears still needing a close below $48.47 to ease bullish

pressure and return focus to the 21-DMA. Below the 21-DMA is needed to see focus

return to $45.21-58.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Immediate Focus On Channel Top

*RES 4: $1375.2 - 2016 High July 6 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly high Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1358.1 - High Aug 16 2016 

*RES 1: $1354.4 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: $1352.9 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1342.1 - Hourly support Sept 7 

*SUP 2: $1331.4 - Low Sept 6 

*SUP 3: $1326.0 - Low Sept 5 

*SUP 4: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 12mth highs continue with immediate bullish focus on

$1354.4-1354.4 and overall focus on tests of $1375.1 2016 highs. The Bollinger

top ($1353.6) remains the key concern for bulls. Layers of support continue to

build. Bears now look for a close below $1342.1 to gain breathing room and below

$1326.0 to shift focus back to $1294.6-1313.7 where the 21-DMA ($1305.7) is

noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]