MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

3 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1583-1.1661

*RES 4: $1.1833 Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.1793 Hourly resistance Oct 2 

*RES 2: $1.1768 Hourly support Oct 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1730 Low Oct 2 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1704 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1684 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 2: $1.1661 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 3: $1.1611 Low July 26 

*SUP 4: $1.1583 High July 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Recent failures around the 55-DMA ($1.1824) and ahead of $1.1862

resistance have left the pair looking heavy with bears currently focused on

$1.1583-1.1661 with the 100-DMA just beneath at $1.1576. O/S daily studies and

the Bollinger base ($1.1703) remain key concerns for bears. Layers of resistance

add weight to the bearish case with bulls still needing a close above $1.1862 to

hint at a move back to $1.2033-92 with above the 21-DMA ($1.1889) to confirm.

     CABLE TECHS: Bearish Focus Back On $1.3159

*RES 4: $1.3463 High Sept 27 

*RES 3: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 2: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance, 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3297 Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $1.3251 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3224 Hourly resistance Sept 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3159 Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3121 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3082 High Sept 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 21-DMA Monday adds weight to the bearish case

with immediate focus having returned to the $1.3159 support. Bears look for a

close below to pressure the 55-DMA and below $1.2993 to shift focus back to the

200-DMA ($1.2755). The 21-DMA is now key resistance with bulls needing a close

above to ease renewed bearish pressure and shift initial focus back to

$1.3463-1.3514.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 3: Y114.19 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y113.26 High Sept 27

*PRICE: Y113.15 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.80 Hourly resistance Oct 3 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.42 Hourly support Sept 29 

*SUP 3: Y112.22 Low Sept 29 

*SUP 4: Y111.98 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in pressure returning to the Y113.26 resistance

with bulls needing a close above to add support to their case for a test of July

highs. Daily studies are at less than ideal levels which is the key concern for

bulls. in saying that, layers of support add to bullish confidence. Bears now

need a close below Y112.22 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA to

hint at a move back to key DMAs Y110.54-111.08 with below Y111.48 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.74 & Y133.49 Levels Key

*RES 4: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 3: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25

*RES 2: Y133.11 High Sept 29

*RES 1: Y132.58 Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: Y132.44 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.07 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y131.74 Low Sept 26 

*SUP 3: Y130.71 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure continues to return to the 21-DMA and daily bull channel

base with bears now needing a close below Y131.74 to confirm a break and shift

immediate focus to Y130.59-71 where the 55-DMA is located. Daily studies have

corrected back to neutral levels and are giving few clues. Bulls continue to

look for a close above Y133.49 to reconfirm initial focus on retests of 2017

highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8868-0.8920 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8907 High Sept 15

*RES 3: Gbp0.8895 100-DMA

*RES 2: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22

*RES 1: Gbp0.8868 High Oct 2

*PRICE: Gbp0.8836 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8832 Hourly support Oct 2 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8801 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8787 Hourly resistance Sept 28 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8758 Hourly support Sept 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the bounce to end the week with layers of

resistance Gbp0.8868-0.8920 remaining key. Bulls again look for a close above

Gbo0.8920 to shift initial focus to tests of the 55-DMA (Gbp0.9012). Momentum

has corrected back to neutral levels with bears now needing a close below

Gbp0.8832 to ease pressure on resistance layers and below Gbp0.8801 to retain

focus on Gbp0.8716-24 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7743-93 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7938 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7907 - Hourly support Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7883 - Hourly resistance Sept 27 

*RES 1: $0.7861 - High Sept 28

*PRICE: $0.7807 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7793 - Low Oct 2 

*SUP 2: $0.7781 - Low July 17, 21-WMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7770 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7743 - High July 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Consolidation below the 55-DMA has seen the pair trade at fresh

3mth lows before finding support ahead of the 21-WMA and 100-DMA which is a

concern for bears given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. Bears look

for a close below $0.7743 to confirm breaks of key MAs and to shift focus to the

200-DMA ($0.7655). Bulls now look for a close above $0.7861 to gain breathing

room and above the 21-DMA ($0.7953) to shift focus back to $0.8036-0.8125.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.762

*RES 4: 94.660 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: 94.145 - Monthly High Aug 16 

*RES 1: 93.888 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 93.799 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 93.762 - High Aug 18 now support

*SUP 2: 93.666 - High Sept 28 now support

*SUP 3: 93.434 - Hourly support Oct 2

*SUP 4: 93.307 - Hourly support Oct 2a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the close above the 55-DMA (92.985) Wednesday

that has resulted in a break above 93.762 and immediate bullish focus now on

94.145-660 where the 100-DMA is located. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top

(93.725) remain key concerns for bulls. Layers of support continue to build with

bears needing a close back below 93.666 to shift focus back to 92.724-986 where

the 55-DMA is situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.429 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7 

*RES 1: 2.371 - High Oct 2

*PRICE: 2.350 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 2.314 - Hourly support Sept 29 

*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 3: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a 

*SUP 4: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls are attempting to distance themselves from the 200-DMA

(2.324) although the lack of follow through above 2.366 is a concern. Bulls now

look for a close above 2.371 to confirm initial focus on 2.398-2.437 with above

2.437 to return focus to 2017 highs. The Bolli top (2.394) remains the key

concern for bulls. Layers of support are building but the 2.284 support is key

with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to 2.208-2.214.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) $51.22-77 Resistance Region Now Key 

*RES 4: $52.27 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: $51.77 - High Sept 29 

*RES 2: $51.22 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $50.79 - Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $50.43 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $50.33 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $50.07 - Low Sept 21 

*SUP 3: $49.57 - Low Sept 14

*SUP 4: $49.33 - Hourly support Sept 13

*COMMENTARY: The bearish key day reversal Thursday provided the catalyst for a

sell-off and close below the 200-DMA ($50.90) that sees focus on layers of

support $48.31-50.07. Bears now look for a close below $50.07 to initially

pressure the 55-DMA ($49.09). Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish

case. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above $51.22 to

ease bearish pressure and above $51.77 to return focus to $52.86-53.64.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1281.2-1296.4 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 

*RES 3: $1290.3 - High Sept 29 

*RES 2: $1281.2 - Hourly support Sept 29 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 2

*PRICE: $1269.5 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: $1265.3 - High Aug 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $1250.5 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1249.9 - Monthly Low Aug 8 

*SUP 4: $1243.8 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Gold remains heavy with immediate focus on $1265.3. Bears look for

a close below $1265.3 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($1272.2) and shift

focus to $1238.6-1250.0 where the bull channel base and 200-DMA are situated.

Resistance layers are building with bulls needing a close above $1281.2 to gain

breathing room and above $1296.4 to shift focus back to $1309.3-1320.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]