MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1862 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.1846 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.1833 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.1788 High Oct 4 

*RES 1: $1.1746 Hourly support Oct 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1736 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1661 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 3: $1.1651 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on fresh lows for the week Friday with

the pair finding support and bouncing ahead of the daily bear channel base and

layers of support $1.1583-1.1661. Below $1.1583 is needed to see bears shift

focus to $1.1477. Bulls now need a close above $1.1746 to gain breathing room

and above $1.1788 to hint at a correction back to $1.1833-62 where 21 & 55-DMAs

are noted.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.3297 Hourly resistance Oct 2 

*RES 3: $1.3222 Low Oct 3 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3164 Hourly support Oct 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3130 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3100 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3074 Hourly support Oct 9 

*SUP 2: $1.3036 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.3025 Low Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $1.3016 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The new week sees the 100-DMA supporting and the 55-DMA capping as

daily studies look to correct from O/S. The $1.2995 support remains key this

week. Bears need a close below $1.2995 to shift focus to $1.2770-72 where the

200-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3164 to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above $1.3224 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA

($1.3351). The Bollinger base and O/S studies are the key concern for bears.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.44-70 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y113.44 High Oct 6 

*RES 2: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: Y112.61 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.33 Low Oct 4 & Hourly support Oct 9 

*SUP 2: Y112.22 Low Sept 29 

*SUP 3: Y111.89 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.85 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through continued Friday with the break

of Y113.26 capped ahead of Y113.70. Bulls need a close above 113.70 to confirm

focus on July highs (Y114.49). There is an increased risk of dips back to the

Y111.85-112.33 region with below the 21-DMA now needed to add weight to the case

for a test of Y110.62-111.09 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Below the 55-DMA

(Y110.62) is needed hint at a move to 2017 lows with below Y109.52 confirming.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Immediate Pressure On Y131.74 Support

*RES 4: Y133.11 High Sept 29

*RES 3: Y132.88 High Oct 3

*RES 2: Y132.43 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.27 Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: Y132.06 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.04 Hourly support Oct 9 

*SUP 2: Y131.74 Low Sept 26 

*SUP 3: Y130.91 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA (Y132.51) and daily bull channel base took

its toll with closes below the 21-DMA seeing immediate pressure on the Y131.74

support. Bears need a close below to shift immediate focus to Y130.38-91 where

the 55-DMA & 200-WMA are noted. Layers of resistance accumulating are adding

weight to the bearish case. Bulls again look for a close above Y132.40 to gain

breathing room and above Y133.49 to shift focus back to Y134.25-41.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8872-0.8920 Support Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.9047 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Gbp0.9045 High Sept 14

*RES 2: Gbp0.9013 55-DMA

*RES 1: Gbp0.8992 High Oct 6

*PRICE: Gbp0.8962 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8944 Hourly support Oct 9 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8920 Hourly support Oct 5 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8907 High Sept 15, now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Sept lows saw the pair close above Gbp0.8920 with

bulls now needing a close above Gbp0.9045 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and

hint at a move back to Gbp0.8213-0.9306 with above Gbp0.9107 confirming. Layers

of support remain with bears now needing a close below the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8872) to

end bullish hopes and shift focus back to Gbp0.8717-57 where the 200-DMA &

55-WMA are found.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7798

*RES 4: $0.7888 - High Sept 27

*RES 3: $0.7840 - Hourly resistance Oct 5

*RES 2: $0.7798 - Hourly resistance Oct 6a

*RES 1: $0.7782 - Hourly resistance Oct 9

*PRICE: $0.7770 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6 

*SUP 2: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7667 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7635 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-WMA ($0.7793) & 100-DMA ($0.7785) took its toll

with a marginal close below Friday although follow through is a little lacking.

Daily studies looking to correct from O/S and the Bollinger base ($0.7737) are

key concerns for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close

above $0.7798 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to

$0.7888-0.7928 with above the 55-DMA ($0.7928) to target $0.8036-0.8125.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 100-DMA

*RES 4: 94.512 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: 94.267 - High Oct 6 

*RES 1: 93.942 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance

*PRICE: 93.762 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.696 - Hourly support Oct 6

*SUP 2: 93.579 - High Oct 4 now support

*SUP 3: 93.413 - Hourly support Oct 4

*SUP 4: 93.259 - Low Oct 4

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of the

100-DMA is a concern for bulls given O/B daily studies and increases the risk of

a correction back to 92.724-945 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bears look for a

close below 93.579 to add weight to their case. 92.724 is now needed to shift

overall focus back to 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: 2.368 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.344 - Hourly support Oct 5 

*SUP 2: 2.319 - Low Oct 5 

*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a

*COMMENTARY: Dips attracted bids last week resulting in fresh 7mth highs

although the lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of 2.437 is less

than ideal. Bulls look for a close above 2.437 to return overall focus to 2017

highs. Resistance layers starting to build is a concern. Bears look for a close

below 2.319 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA (2.321) and below 2.284 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure & shift focus to 2.208-2.245.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) Bears Focused On 100-DMA & Channel Base 

*RES 4: $50.53 - Hourly support Oct 6a now resistance 

*RES 3: $50.48 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $50.16 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: $49.76 - Low Oct 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $49.42 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $49.10 - Low Oct 6 

*SUP 2: $48.96 - High Sept 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $48.31 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $47.88 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to $51.22-77 bulls failed to trouble

this region with the sell-off seeing immediate focus on $47.39-49.10 this week.

Overall bears need a close below $47.39 to confirm initial focus on $45.52-46.14

with below $45.52 to shift focus to $42.80 June lows. Layers of resistance are

weighing with bulls now needing a close above $49.76 to gain breathing room and

above $50.53 to pressure $51.22-77 once more.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Correcting

*RES 4: $1296.6 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 

*RES 2: $1292.5 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1290.3 - High Sept 29

*PRICE: $1283.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6 

*SUP 3: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1260.5 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 2mth lows Friday was less than

ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/S adding support to the case

for a correction. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA ($1296.6) to shift

initial focus back to $1313.6-1320.0. Initial support is noted at $1277.6 with

bears needing a close below to retain focus on $1240.9-1253.1 where the bull

channel base and 200-DMA are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]