MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

24 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On 1.1583-1.1669

*RES 4: $1.1858 High Oct 19 

*RES 3: $1.1826 Hourly resistance Oct 20 

*RES 2: $1.1790 Hourly resistance Oct 20a 

*RES 1: $1.1778 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1760 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1745 Hourly support Oct 24 

*SUP 2: $1.1725 Low Oct 23 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1669 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Rallies the past two weeks remained capped ahead of the daily bear

channel top with focus having shifted to layers of support $1.1583-1.1669. Daily

studies are well place for further downside. Bulls look for a close above the

21-DMA to gain breathing room. The $1.1826-80 resistance region remains key.

Bulls need a close above $1.1880 to confirm a break of the bear channel top

($1.1837) and shift focus back to $1.2033.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 3: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3244 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3228 High Oct 19

*PRICE: $1.3220 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3191 Hourly support Oct 23 

*SUP 2: $1.3158 Low Oct 23 

*SUP 3: $1.3088 Low Oct 20 

*SUP 4: $1.3052 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on dips below the 55-DMA ($1.3152) last

week with the pair bouncing back towards layers of resistance. Bulls need a

close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $1.3343 to end bearish

hopes and shift focus to $1.3461-1.3595. Bears now look for a close below

$1.3158 to gain breathing room and below $1.2995 to shift focus to the 200-DMA

($1.2826).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y112.30-113.06 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Y115.34 Falling LT weekly TL 

*RES 3: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 2: Y114.10 High Oct 23 

*RES 1: Y113.61 Hourly support Oct 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y113.33 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.06 Hourly support Oct 20a 

*SUP 2: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 3: Y112.30 Low Oct 19 

*SUP 4: Y112.04 Hourly support Oct 17

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through Monday has left the pair looking

a little heavy. Y112.30-113.06 support region remains key. Bears need a close

below Y113.06 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below Y112.30 to shift

focus back to Y110.96-111.73 where key DMAs are noted. While Y113.06 supports

bulls remain focused on Y114.49 July highs. Bulls look for a close above Y114.49

to pressure the Y115.34-115.62 region where further monthly highs are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y132.91 Shifts Focus to Y131.43-65

*RES 4: Y134.41 2017 High Sept 22

*RES 3: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 2: Y134.11 High Oct 23

*RES 1: Y133.68 Hourly resistance Oct 23

*PRICE: Y133.30 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.09 Low Oct 23 

*SUP 2: Y132.91 Hourly support Oct 19 

*SUP 3: Y132.44 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y131.95 Hourly support Oct 18

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the key Y134.25-59 resistance region is less

than ideal for bulls who look for a close above Y134.59 to potentially target

Y139.02-141.05. Layers of resistance accumulating are beginning to weigh. The

Y132.91 support is now key with bears needing a close below to hint at a deeper

sell-off targeting Y131.43-65 where the 55-DMA is situated. Bulls now need a

close above Y133.68 to gain breathing room and retain focus on key resistance.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pressure Remains On 21-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 Hourly support Oct 19a now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8940 Hourly resistance Oct 20 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8924 Hourly resistance Oct 23 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8906 Hourly resistance Oct 24

*PRICE: Gbp0.8898 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8892 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8856 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8801 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8746 Monthly Low Sept 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to gain traction above the 55-DMA with the sell-off

Friday leaving the pair looking heavy and focus back on Gbp0.8856-92 where the

bull channel base and 21-DMA are situated. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8856 to

shift focus back to Gbp0.8726-48 where monthly lows, the 55-WMA & 200-DMA are

noted. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8967 to ease bearish pressure and above

Gbp0.9048 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to Gbp0.9107-0.9202.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus On $0.7690-0.7733 This Week

*RES 4: $0.7903 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7884 - High Oct 19

*RES 2: $0.7856 - Hourly resistance Oct 20a

*RES 1: $0.7834 - High Oct 23

*PRICE: $0.7818 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7796 - Hourly support Oct 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 3: $0.7754 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Bears gain confidence as the pair trades below 21 ($0.7828) & 100

($0.7826) DMAs to start the new week. Having remained capped ahead of the 55-DMA

bears now focus on the $0.7690-0.7733 region where the 200-DMA and Oct lows are

noted. Below the 200-DMA hints at a move initially targeting $0.7513. Layers of

resistance are building and weighing with bulls needing a close above the 55-DMA

to end bearish hopes and shift initial focus back to $0.7986.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.476 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.267 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 94.100 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 94.026 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 93.705 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.517 - Hourly support Oct 20

*SUP 2: 93.347 - Hourly support Oct 20A

*SUP 3: 93.055 - Low Oct 19

*SUP 4: 92.945 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

55-DMA last week although hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA is a concern. The

94.100-476 resistance region is key. Bulls need a close above 94.476 to confirm

a break of the 100-DMA and to shift immediate focus to 95.167-464. Layers of

support are again building. Bears need a close below 93.679 (Monday's low) to

ease bullish pressure and below 92.724 to shift focus lower.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Hesitation Less Than Ideal

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.381 - Hourly resistance Oct 23

*PRICE: 2.370 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.350 - Hourly support Oct 20 

*SUP 2: 2.332 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 4: 2.278 - Low Oct 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 2.402 resistance have left a double daily

top in place with the Bollinger top (2.405) just above. Bulls currently focus on

the 2.402-437 resistance region this week and need a close above to shift

initial focus to 2.544-558. The 2.332-350 support region remains key with bears

needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and see pressure back on the key

2.278 support below which targets 2.208-245.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Close Above $53.11 

*RES 4: $53.11 - Monthly High Sept 28 

*RES 3: $52.97 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $52.65 - High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $52.39 - Hourly resistance Oct 19

*PRICE: $51.94 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $51.68 - Low Oct 23 

*SUP 2: $51.44 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $51.24 - Hourly resistance Oct 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $50.87 - Low Oct 20

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of the $52.65-53.11 region is less than

ideal for bulls who need a close above to shift focus to $53.73-55.03 where the

bull channel top ($54.91) is located. Bulls took comfort in the bounce from

ahead of the 200-DMA ($50.67) Friday. Layers of support remain $48.68-50.87.

Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA

($50.00) to pressure $48.68-49.44.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Supported Below 100-DMA For Now

*RES 4: $1298.3 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: $1297.8 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 1: $1285.9 - Hourly resistance Oct 20

*PRICE: $1282.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Oct 23 now support 

*SUP 2: $1275.3 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1272.5 - Low Oct 23 

*SUP 4: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 100-DMA has so far failed to produce the close

below needed to see bears confirm focus on tests of $1243.4-1260.1 where the

daily bull channel base ($1247.0) and 200-DMA ($1258.7) are noted. Bulls need a

close above $1291.1 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above $1306.0 to

pressure $1313.6-1320.0, Daily studies remain well placed for further losses.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]