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Breaches Key Support

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30 October 2017
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1689-1.1725 Resistance Key
*RES 4: $1.1785 Hourly resistance Oct 26 
*RES 3: $1.1725 Low Oct 23 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.1689 Hourly support Oct 26 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.1644 Hourly resistance Oct 27
*PRICE: $1.1614 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1575 Low Oct 27 
*SUP 2: $1.1530 Daily bear channel base 
*SUP 3: $1.1478 Low July 20 
*SUP 4: $1.1369 High July 5 now support
*COMMENTARY: Following the topside failure around the 55-DMA ($1.1831) last week
the pair headed lower with bears focused on $1.1478-1.1575 where the bear
channel base is noted. The weekly close below the 200-WMA ($1.1671) adds weight
to the bearish case. The Bollinger base ($1.1623) is the key concern and
currently limits follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.1689 to ease
bearish pressure and above $1.1725 to target the 55-DMA.
     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2995
*RES 4: $1.3279 High Oct 26 
*RES 3: $1.3240 Hourly resistance Oct 26b 
*RES 2: $1.3183 Hourly resistance Oct 26a 
*RES 1: $1.3164 55-DMA
*PRICE: $1.3146 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3120 Hourly support Oct 30 
*SUP 2: $1.3100 Hourly support Oct 27 
*SUP 3: $1.3065 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support
*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 21-DMA ($1.3193) was short with the break of
the 21-DMA leaving the pair looking heavy and focus back to layers of support
$1.2995-1.3065 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls still need a close above
$1.3183 to ease bearish pressure and above $1.3240 to shift focus back to
$1.3279-1.3343. Bears look for a close below $1.2995 to shift overall focus to
the 200-DMA ($1.2842).
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y113.25
*RES 4: Y115.62 High Jan 19 
*RES 3: Y115.24 Falling LT weekly TL 
*RES 2: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 
*RES 1: Y114.00 Hourly resistance Oct 28
*PRICE: Y113.61 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.37 Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 2: Y113.25 Low Oct 24 
*SUP 3: Y113.06 Hourly support Oct 20a 
*SUP 4: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls repeatedly failed to take out the key Y114.49 resistance last
week with the pair looking a little heavy as a result. Bulls still need a close
above Y114.49 to shift initial focus to Y115.34-62 where July highs are noted.
The Bollinger top (Y114.13) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now look for a
close below Y113.25 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus
back to layers of support Y111.33-112.30 where key DMAs are clustered.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: Y133.12 Hourly resistance Oct 26
*RES 3: Y132.75 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y132.44 Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance
*RES 1: Y132.22 Hourly resistance Oct 27
*PRICE: Y131.95 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.71 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: Y131.65 Low Oct 16 
*SUP 3: Y131.39 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y134.59 resulted in a sell-off with
the pair flirting with Friday's close below the bull channel base (Y132.78)
shifting pressure to the 55-DMA. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to target a
deeper correction initially focused on Y129.36-130.59 where the 100-DMA
(Y130.16) is found. Bulls need a close above Y133.50 to ease bearish pressure
and above Y133.99 to return focus to Y134.59.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Focus On 55-WMA & 200-DMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8925 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8910 21-DMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8901 High Oct 27 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8845 Hourly resistance Oct 27
*PRICE: Gbp0.8837 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8830 Weekly Bull channel base 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8818 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8800 Low Oct 2 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8753 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy with Friday's bounce remaining capped ahead
of the 21-DMA. Bears remain focused on Gbp0.8722-53 where Sept lows, the 200-DMA
and 55-WMA (Gbp0.8722) are situated. The weekly bull channel base comes in
around Gbp0.8030 this week with bears needing a close below Gbp0.8800 to confirm
a break and add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA
to ease bearish pressure.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Now On $0.7513-76
*RES 4: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25tance
*RES 3: $0.7720 - Low Oct 11 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7693 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7650 - Low Oct 26 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7675 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7650 - Hourly support Oct 27 
*SUP 2: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27 
*SUP 3: $0.7576 - Daily Bear channel base 
*SUP 4: $0.7564 - Low June 26
*COMMENTARY: Bears dominated last week with the close below the 200-DMA seeing
focus shift to $0.7513-76 where the daily bear channel base is noted. The 55-WMA
comes in at $0.7632 and may slow the move. Overall bears look for a close below
$0.7312 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above
$0.7720 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7775 to pressure the
$0.7831-0.7909 region where key DMAs and channel top are situated.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 94.717
*RES 4: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 
*RES 3: 95.188 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: 95.167 - High July 20 
*RES 1: 94.927 - Hourly resistance Oct 27
*PRICE: 94.767 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 94.717 - High Oct 26 now support
*SUP 2: 94.544 - Hourly support Oct 26
*SUP 3: 94.306 - Hourly resistance Oct 26 now support
*SUP 4: 94.000 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The pair dipped below the 21-DMA marginally Thursday before an
aggressive rally saw closes above the 21-WMA (93.939) and 100-DMA that confirmed
bullish focus on 95.167-464 where the daily bull channel top is noted. Bears now
need a close below 94.717 to ease bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to
shift focus back to 92.724-93.597. The Bollinger top (94.730) and O/B studies
are now concerns for bulls.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy
*RES 4: 2.560 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 2.558 - Low Mar 13 now resistance 
*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17 
*RES 1: 2.477 - High Oct 25
*PRICE: 2.401 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.394 - Hourly support Oct 24 
*SUP 2: 2.363 - Hourly support Oct 23 
*SUP 3: 2.357 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.352 - High Oct 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow-through in the latter half of last week
is less than ideal for bulls with the Bollinger top (2.445) currently the key
concern. The 2.394 support remains key. Bears need a close below 2.394 to ease
bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to initially pressure the 200-DMA (2.314)
and hint at a correction back to 2.251-278. Layers of resistance are starting
weigh with bulls needing a close above 2.445 to shift pressure back to 2.477. 
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) $52.86-53.63 Support Region Now Key 
*RES 4: $56.60 - Monthly High Feb 2 
*RES 3: $55.20 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: $55.02 - Monthly Apr 12 
*RES 1: $54.20 - High Oct 27
*PRICE: $53.96 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $53.63 - Hourly support Oct 27 
*SUP 2: $53.14 - Hourly support Oct 27a 
*SUP 3: $52.86 - High Oct 26 now support 
*SUP 4: $52.25 - Low Oct 27
*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the $53.11 resistance last week provided
bulls hope and resulted in a break and aggressive rally that reconfirms the
bullish bias with focus now on $55.02-20 where the daily bull channel top and
Apr highs are noted. Layers of support are following the contract higher with
bears now needing a close below $53.63 to ease immediate bullish pressure and
below $52.86 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($51.67).
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Finding Support Ahead Of 200-DMA For Now
*RES 4: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 
*RES 3: $1283.7 - High Oct 24 
*RES 2: $1280.7 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $1275.1 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: $1271.5 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1261.3 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: $1260.6 - Low Oct 6 
*SUP 3: $1259.9 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1248.7 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort from a close below the 100-DMA that confirmed
focus on $1243.8-1260.6 where the 200-DMA and channel base are situated. Bears
now need a close below $1243.8 to shift focus to $1194.9-1204.9 where July lows
are noted. Layers of resistance are weighing with bulls now needing a close
above $1283.7 to ease bearish pressure & initially correct back to
$1291.1-1297.0 where the 55-DMA is found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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