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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
14 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.1884
*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27
*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1
*RES 2: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 1: $1.1848 High Dec 6
*PRICE: $1.1832 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1813 Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 2: $1.1779 Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 3: $1.1729 Low Dec 13
*SUP 4: $1.1713 Low Nov 21
*COMMENTARY: The failure by bears to manage a break of the key $1.1690 support
sees the pair correcting higher with the close above the 21-DMA ($1.1819) adding
support to the bullish case for a move back to $1.1940-61 and above $1.1884 to
confirm. Daily studies are well placed for further topside. Bears now need a
close below $1.1779 to ease immediate bullish pressure and shift focus back to
the key $1.1690 support.
CABLE TECHS: Hinting At Move To $1.3549-1.3656
*RES 4: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20
*RES 3: $1.3595 High Sept 22
*RES 2: $1.3549 High Nov 30
*RES 1: $1.3519 High Dec 8
*PRICE: $1.3436 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3379 High Dec 12 now support
*SUP 2: $1.3302 Low Dec 12
*SUP 3: $1.3254 55-DMA
*SUP 4: $1.3195 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Time spent below the 21-DMA ($1.3361) was brief with the close
above $1.3374 easing bearish pressure and bulls now looking for a close above
$1.3432 (Dec 11 high) to confirm focus back on $1.3549-1.3656 where 2017 highs
are located. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears now need a close
below $1.3379 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.3302 to confirm focus on
$1.3185-1.3254 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy
*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*RES 2: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13a
*RES 1: Y112.85 Hourly resistance Dec 13, 55-DMA
*PRICE: Y112.61 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.33 Hourly resistance Dec 7a now support
*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*SUP 3: Y111.63 200-DMA
*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29
*COMMENTARY: Recent hesitation has seen the pair head lower taking out key
supports and looking a little heavy. Bears need a close below Y112.33 to confirm
focus on Y110.83-111.68 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Initial
resistance is noted at Y112.85 but bulls need a close above Y113.30 to ease
bearish pressure whereas a close above Y114.07 is needed to reconfirm a bullish
bias that initially targets Y114.72 where the LT TL off 2015 highs is found.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y133.88
*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25
*RES 3: Y134.17 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: Y133.47 Hourly resistance Dec 12
*RES 1: Y133.50 Hourly resistance Dec 14
*PRICE: Y133.23 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.17 Hourly resistance Dec 13 now support
*SUP 2: Y132.58 Hourly support Dec 7
*SUP 3: Y132.24 Low Dec 6
*SUP 4: Y132.13 Daily Bull channel base off Aug Low
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 21 (Y132.81) &
55 (Y132.72) DMAs but need a close above Y133.88 to confirm initial focus on
tests of 2017 highs. The Y131.71-132.24 region where the 100-DMA and bull
channel base are situated remains key support. Bears need a close below Y131.71
to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA with below Y131.21 confirming. Daily
studies are well placed for bulls but the Bollinger top remains the key concern.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8773
*RES 4: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance
*RES 3: Gbp0.8902 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 2: Gbp0.8871 55-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8845 21-DMA
*PRICE: Gbp0.8806 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8780 Low Dec 13
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8773 Hourly support Dec 11a
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Low Dec 8
*COMMENTARY: The break of Gbp0.8717 support Friday lacked follow through with
the pair bouncing from below the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8734) last week. The close above
the 200-DMA Monday eased bearish pressure and sees focus back on the 55-DMA.
Bulls still need a close above the 55-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8902-81
where the bear channel top and 100-DMA are noted. Bears now look for a close
below Gbp0.8773 to return pressure to the Gbp0.8690 6mth low from last week.
AUSSIE TECHS: Support Layers Developing At A Rapid Pace
*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2
*RES 2: $0.7690 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7684 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7670 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7641 - Hourly breakout level Dec 14
*SUP 2: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 3: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low saw a close above the channel top
with the pair very bid and pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs. Layers of resistance remain
$0.7684-0.7800 with bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA ($0.7800) to shift
overall focus to tests of 2017 highs. Support layers are emerging at a rapid
pace with bears now needing a close below $0.7623 to ease immediate bullish
pressure and below $0.7580 to return initial focus to $0.7500.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pressuring 100-DMA
*RES 4: 94.219 - High Dec 12
*RES 3: 94.107 - High Dec 13
*RES 2: 93.666 - Low Dec 11 now resistance
*RES 1: 93.500 - Hourly resistance Dec 13
*PRICE: 93.372 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 93.326 - 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 93.171 - Low Dec 6
*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5
*SUP 4: 92.878 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower leaves the index looking a little heavy and
pressuring the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below 93.035 to shift pressure
back to the 92.496-878 region where Nov lows and the bull channel base are
situated. Correcting O/B studies are now weighing. Bulls now need a close above
93.666 to gain breathing room and above 94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias
targeting 95.167-464.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Returns to 2.273-303
*RES 4: 2.437 - High Nov 30
*RES 3: 2.426 - High Dec 13
*RES 2: 2.398 - Hourly resistance Dec 13
*RES 1: 2.369 - Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.362 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.343 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: 2.303 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 2.289 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13
*COMMENTARY: The 2.437 resistance remains key with topside failures resulting in
a sell-off and bears focused on the 2.273-303 region where key DMAs and Oct low
are located. Layers of resistance building are now weighing with bulls needing a
close above 2.398 to ease bearish pressure and return initial focus to
2.426-437. Overall above 2.437 targets 2017 highs and below 2.273 hints at a
move back to 2017 lows at 2.016 with below 2.207 to confirm.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Bull Channel Base Pressured
*RES 4: $58.60 - High Dec 12
*RES 3: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12
*RES 2: $57.40 - Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance
*RES 1: $56.90 - Hourly resistance Dec 13
*PRICE: $56.76 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $56.53 - Low Dec 13, Bull channel base (Oct mthly low)
*SUP 2: $55.88 - Low Dec 7
*SUP 3: $55.15 - Low Nov 14
*SUP 4: $54.90 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of the $58.99 Nov high was less than
ideal for bulls and sees pressure on the daily bull channel base off Oct lows.
Bears look for a close below $56.53 to confirm a break and to shift focus to
$54.90-55.15 where the 55-DMA is situated. Bulls now need a close $57.40 to ease
pressure on the channel base and above $57.98 to reconfirm initial focus on
$58.60-58.99.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To $1269.9-1289.5
*RES 4: $1285.1 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1
*RES 2: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance
*RES 1: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 now resistance
*PRICE: $1258.2 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 2: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13
*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: $1227.8 - Low July 17
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise further on recent fresh 6mth lows with
the bounce easing immediate bearish pressure. Correcting O/S daily studies add
support to the case for a move back to layers of resistance $1269.9-1286.3 where
DMAs and bear channel top are noted with bulls now needing a close above
$1260.1. The $1235.9 support is now key with bears needing a close below to
reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on the channel base ($1208.4).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.