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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
26 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA
*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27
*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1
*RES 2: $1.1918 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 1: $1.1901 High Dec 20
*PRICE: $1.1872 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1805 Hourly support Dec 19, 100-DMA
*SUP 2: $1.1775 Low Dec 19
*SUP 3: $1.1713 Low Nov 21
*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $1.1901-61 resistance region is less than
ideal for bulls who look for a close above $1.1961 to confirm focus on tests of
2017 highs. Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips with bears needing a
close below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690. A close below
$1.1690 remains needed to shift focus to $1.1472-1.1552 where the 200-DMA and
Nov low are situated.
CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3519 High Dec 8
*RES 3: $1.3462 High Dec 14
*RES 2: $1.3418 High Dec 18
*RES 1: $1.3398 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1.3372 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3329 Low Dec 21
*SUP 2: $1.3300 Low Dec 15
*SUP 3: $1.3277 55-DMA
*SUP 4: $1.3214 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from around $1.3300 is struggling with the pair now
capped by the 21-DMA. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease pressure on
support layers and return initial focus to $1.3462 with a close above this level
to reconfirm focus on $1.3549. Bears need a close below $1.3300 to pressure
$1.3207-77 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are noted. Below the
100-DMA is needed to shift focus to $1.2992-1.3037.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus On Y113.74-114.07
*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6
*RES 3: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High
*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 1: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*PRICE: Y113.32 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.08 High Dec 19 now support
*SUP 2: Y112.90 55-DMA
*SUP 3: Y112.78 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on dips with closes above the
55-DMA seeing bulls initially focused on Y113.74-114.07. Bulls look for a close
above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then Y118.60 2017 highs. Bears still need a
close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to
Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a
close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31)
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015
*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance
*RES 2: Y134.88 2017 High Dec 21
*RES 1: Y134.55 Hourly resistance Dec 26
*PRICE: Y134.44 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 2: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 3: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 4: Y132.56 Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: Recent fresh 2017 & 2+ year highs opened up for a potential move
targeting monthly highs Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y134.95) is the key
concern for bulls. Layers of support are following the pair higher with bears
needing a close below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to
the key Y130.59-132.56 support region where the 100-DMA and bull channel base
are noted. Immediate bullish focus is on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8826
*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28
*RES 3: Gbp0.8934 100-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance
*RES 1: Gbp0.8890 High Dec 21
*PRICE: Gbp0.8876 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support
*COMMENTARY: The pops above the bear channel top (Gbp0.8860) have lacked follow
through which is a concern for bulls who are currently focused on Gbp0.8922-81
where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8981 to shift initial
focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. Layers of support remain with bears continuing to
look for a close below Gbp0.8826 to shift initial focus back to
Gbp0.8690-0.8759.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bullish Confidence Growing
*RES 4: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7779 - 100-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7730 - High Nov 2
*PRICE: $0.7714 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7692 - 200-DMA
*SUP 2: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 3: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55 ($0.7666) & 200-DMAs has taken its toll with the
closes above the 200-DMA adding support to the bullish case. Bulls continue to
look for a close above the 100-DMA to shift overall focus to 2017 highs. Key
supports remain. Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room
and below $0.7623 to hint at a move back to $0.7482-00 with below $0.7580 to
confirm.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Remain
Key
*RES 4: 94.219 - High Dec 12
*RES 3: 94.107 - High Dec 13
*RES 2: 93.757 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: 93.555 - Hourly resistance Dec 22
*PRICE: 93.300 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 93.163 - Low Dec 20
*SUP 2: 93.092 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5
*SUP 4: 92.604 - Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on bounces from the 100-DMA
(93.352) with the failure to take out 94.219 seeing pressure back on supports.
Bears look for a close below 93.163 to add weight to their case with a close
below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still look for a
close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 94.219 to reconfirm a
bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where the 200-DMA (95.431) is noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.423-472 Support Key
*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15
*RES 3: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13
*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17
*RES 1: 2.534 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high)
*PRICE: 2.492 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.472 - Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 2: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 3: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a
*SUP 4: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with
the correction higher seeing a close above 2.477 shift bullish focus to
2.628-641 where 2017 & 2016 highs are situated. Daily studies remain well placed
for gains. Layers of support building has provided bulls confidence. Bears need
a close below 2.472 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below 2.423 to
confirm a correction back to 2.344-376.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Above $58.99 Targets $60.14-62.87
*RES 4: $62.87 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low)
*RES 3: $60.48 - Daily Bull channel top (off June low)
*RES 2: $60.14 - 200-WMA
*RES 1: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24
*PRICE: $58.52 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $58.18 - Hourly support Dec 22
*SUP 2: $57.58 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $57.20 - Low Dec 19
*SUP 4: $56.88 - Low Dec 18
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards $55.88 sees bulls focused on
$58.99 with a break targeting the 200-WMA and channel tops ($60.48-62.87).
Layers of support building add to bullish confidence with a close below the
21-DMA needed to ease renewed bullish pressure. A close below $55.15 remains
needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($55.75) and initially target
$52.77-54.07.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pops Above Channel Top
*RES 4: $1306.1 - Monthly High Oct 16
*RES 3: $1299.1 - Monthly High Nov 27
*RES 2: $1289.5 - Monthly High Dec 1
*RES 1: $1286.3 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: $1278.2 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1272.8 - Hourly support Dec 26
*SUP 2: $1265.7 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $1259.2 - Low Dec 19
*SUP 4: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Dec lows now sees the pair flirting with the
55-DMA ($1275.8) and the bear channel top ($1277.8). Bulls now look for a close
above $1289..5 to confirm breaks of the 55-DMA and bear channel top with focus
then shifting to the $1306.1-1320.0 resistance region where monthly highs are
noted. Bears still need a close below the 21-DMA to ease pressure on resistance
layers.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.