MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Focused On LT Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2887 Monthly High Nov 2014

*RES 3: $1.2665 LT Bear channel top

*RES 2: $1.2599 High Nov 19 2014

*RES 1: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 2014

*PRICE: $1.2545 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2515 Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2442 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2384 Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 4: $1.2330 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: Having closed above the 21-DMA ($1.2372) Tuesday gains Wednesday

see immediate focus back on the $1.2569-1.2665 region where the weekly bear

channel top and Dec 2014 high are situated. Daily studies are ideally placed for

gains. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a close below $1.2515 to

gain breathing room and below $1.2442 to shift focus back to $1.2273-1.2380.

     CABLE TECHS: 200-WMA Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1.4359 200-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: $1.4162 Low Feb 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.4139 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4086 Hourly support Feb 15 

*SUP 2: $1.3974 Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $1.3923 High Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3794 Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Feb lows so far ($1.3765) now sees bulls looking

for a close above $1.4162 to confirm focus on 2018 highs and the key 200-WMA

lurking above. A weekly close above the 200-WMA was last seen in Q4 2014. A

close above would target $1.5019 2016 highs. The $1.3924-1.4023 support region

is now key. Bears need a close below $1.4023 to gain breathing room and below

$1.3924 to target $1.3657-1.3765.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y105.50 Confirms Focus On Y99.08-101.15

*RES 4: Y107.54 Hourly resistance Feb 14a 

*RES 3: Y106.91 Hourly resistance Feb 15 

*RES 2: Y106.34 Hourly resistance Feb 16 

*RES 1: Y106.02 Low Feb 15 now resistance

*PRICE: Y105.62 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 2: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 3: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016 

*SUP 4: Y99.08  2016 Low June 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018/15mth lows leave the pair offered and open up for Y99.08

2016 lows. Immediate bearish focus is on the Y105.50 support with a close below

to add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above Y106.91 to gain

breathing room. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y108.03 to hint at a

correction back to Y110.47 with above Y109.79 to confirm. O/S daily studies and

Bollinger base (Y106.18) remain concerns for bears.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Downside Follow Through Remains Lacking

*RES 4: Y134.49 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 1: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.48 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.59 2018 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 3: Y130.98 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018/3mth lows lack follow through which is a concern when

combined with daily studies at O/S levels. Bulls now need a close above Y133.78

to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA (Y134.89) to hint at a move back

to 2018 highs with above Y135.95 to confirm. While Y133.78 caps bears remain

focused on the close below Y131.15 to hint at a move back to Y125.80-127.54 with

below Y130.59 to confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8888 Hourly support Feb 15 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8872 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8858 Low Feb 15 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8841 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8821 Hourly resistance Feb 8 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the key Gbp0.8928 resistance is less than ideal

as daily studies linger at O/B levels and momentum begins to correct. Bulls

still need a close above Gbp0.8928 to end bearish hopes and initially target

Gbp0.9013-48. Layers of support remain in place. Bears now look for a close

below Gbp0.8841 to ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8776 to shift focus back

to Gbp0.8685-0.8730.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7985 Targets $0.8118-62

*RES 4: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26

*RES 3: $0.8118 - High Jan 29

*RES 2: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 1: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7964 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7932 - Hourly support Feb 16 

*SUP 2: $0.7890 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from another dip back towards the 200-DMA has been

aggressive and sees bulls looking for a close above $0.7985 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA and return focus to the $0.8118-62 region where 2018 highs are

noted. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears need a close

below $0.7931 to gain breathing room and below $0.7867 to shift focus back to

$0.7229-69 where the 200-DMA is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 1: 2.944 - 2018 High Feb 15

*PRICE: 2.904 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.882 - Low Feb 18 

*SUP 2: 2.844 - Hourly breakout level Feb 14 

*SUP 3: 2.808 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand this week with immediate focus now on

the 3.041 2014 high. A close above this level sees initial focus on 3.073-223

where July 2011 monthly highs are situated. O/B studies and the Bollinger top

(2.968) are concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears need a close below 2.844

to gain breathing room and below 2.808 to shift initial focus to 2.758-786 where

the 21-DMA is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Above $63.94 Targets 2018 High 

*RES 4: $63.94 - High Feb 6 

*RES 3: $62.96 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: $61.82 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: $61.48 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 3: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support 

*SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from very O/S are well placed for gains

following the bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA. The contract is gaining traction

above the 55-DMA ($60.97) adding to bullish confidence. Overall bulls look for a

close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close

below $59.60 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA to target the 200-DMA

($53.46).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1374.9 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 3 2014 

*RES 3: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 2: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 1: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $1359.0 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1351.9 - Hourly support Feb 16 

*SUP 2: $1345.5 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $1338.8 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1336.8 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards the 55-DMA saw an

aggressive break of the 21-DMA with focus now back on layers of resistance

$1367.3-1374.9. Bulls need a close above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$1391.8-1433.3. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears need a close

below $1345.5 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

$1302.5-1306.9.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]