MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 2: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20, 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2302 Hourly resistance Feb 21

*PRICE: $1.2276 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2018 High Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel

top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs Friday sees immediate focus now on the

$1.2092-1.2167 support region. Below $1.2092 is needed to end bullish hopes and

initially target $1.1915-63 where the 100-DMA is located. Layers of resistance

are weighing with bulls now needing a close above $1.2372 to gain breathing room

and above $1.2461 to shift focus to 2018 highs.

     CABLE TECHS: Focus Shifts To $1.3631-1.3794

*RES 4: $1.4086 Hourly support Feb 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4013 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.4009 High Feb 21 

*RES 1: $1.3937 Hourly resistance Feb 21

*PRICE: $1.3911 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 2: $1.3763 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $1.3730 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3631 Monthly High Sept 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The failure to retake the $1.4162 level on the recovery from

$1.3763 sees the 21-DMA now capping, the pair looking heavy and focus now on

$1.3631-1.3794 where the 55-DMA is noted. Daily studies are well placed for a

fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $1.4086 to gain breathing room and

above $1.4162 to confirm focus on 2018 highs and the key 200-WMA ($1.4344)

lurking above.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above Y108.42

*RES 4: Y109.78 High Feb 8 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.38 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Y107.35 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.01 Hourly support Feb 20 

*SUP 2: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 4: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The Y105.50 support confirmed significance supporting on fresh 2018

lows. Bears need a close below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for a move to

Y99.08-101.15. Bulls now need a close above Y108.42 to hint at a correction back

to Y110.47 and above Y109.78 to confirm. Correcting O/S daily studies and

Bollinger base (Y105.92) remain concerns for bears who now need a close below

Y107.01 to retain initial focus on Y105.50.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Looking Heavy, Pressuring 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.78 Hourly resistance Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.43 Hourly support Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: Y131.76 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.51 2018 Low Feb 16 

*SUP 2: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 3: Y131.13 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.50 Low Sept 14

*COMMENTARY: Despite daily studies correcting from O/S adding support, bulls

failed to capitalise on Wednesday's gains with the pair again looking heavy and

immediate pressure on the 2018 lows and overall focus on Y130.50-131.51. A close

below Y130.50 is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift initial

focus to Y127.52-129.25. Bulls need a close above Y133.43 to gain breathing room

and above the 55-DMA (Y134.36) to target 2018 highs (Y137.50).

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below Gbp0.8776 Targets Gbp0.8647-85

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8889 High Feb 16 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8878 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8854 100-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8823 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8805 Lows Feb 20 & 21 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the key Gbp0.8928 resistance has taken its toll

with recent hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA providing the impetus for a break of

21 (Gbp0.8818) & 55 (Gbp0.8832) DMAs. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8776

to confirm focus on Gbp0.8647-85 where the bear channel base and 2018 low are

noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to return focus to Gbp0.8928.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Returns To $0.7729-74

*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7879 - Hourly resistance Feb 21

*PRICE: $0.7798 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7774 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $0.7867 support sees initial focus back on

$0.7229-0.7774 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted following the break of the bull

channel base ($0.7812). Below $0.7729 remains needed to end bullish hopes and

shift focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls now need a close above $0.7879 to ease

bearish pressure and above $0.7989 to return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018

highs are noted.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Close Above 200-DMA Targets $1.2915

*RES 4: $1.2915 - Monthly Highs Oct & Dec 2017

*RES 3: $1.2879 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: $1.2843 - Low Dec 18 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2712 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2693 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2657 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2592 - High Feb 19 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2528 - Low Feb 19 

*SUP 4: $1.2481 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2452-1.2532 support region where the 21-DMA is noted has

provided the base for a move that sees pressure back on the 200-DMA having

closed above the MT falling TL ($1.2666). Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA

to shift focus to $1.2915 Oct & Dec 2017 highs. Bears look for a close below

$1.2592 to gain breathing room and below $1.2452 to return initial focus to

tests of 2018 lows ($1.2255).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 92.640 - High Jan 9 

*RES 3: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 1: 90.567 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: 90.088 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 55-DMA (89.596) eased bearish pressure with

above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to

94.219-95.149. Initial support is noted at 89.442 with bears needing a close

below to signal a false break of the 55-DMA and return focus to 86.515-879 where

the weekly bear channel base, Nov 2014 monthly low LT rising weekly TL are

situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) $60.57 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: $63.94 - High Feb 6 

*RES 3: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 2: $62.52 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $61.88 - High Feb 21

*PRICE: $61.06 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.77 - Low Feb 16 

*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is a concern for bulls who continue

to look for a close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs ($66.65). Bears

continue to look for a close below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the

$57.88 support to confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($58.45) & target the 200-DMA

($53.75). Bulls need a close above $62.63 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

add support to their case.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Close Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 1: $1336.2 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1323.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1313.0 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high

resulted in breaks of key supports with bears gaining confidence and focus on

$1298.6-1313.0 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close below

the 100-DMA to hint at a move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the

200-DMA ($1285.8) to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1251.3 to return focus

to $1367.3-1374.9.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]