MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Returns To $1.2092-1.2153

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 2: $1.2364 Alternating support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.2322 Hourly resistance Mar 8

*PRICE: $1.2308 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to stall on approach to the weekly bear channel

top ($1.2640) off 2008 highs and looks offered. The close below $1.2320 sees

focus return to the $1.2092-1.2153 support region. Resistance layers left in the

wake add to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close above $1.2446 to

reconfirm focus on $1.2555-1.2640 where 2018 highs and the LT bear channel top

are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Topside Hesitation Takes Its Toll

*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 1: $1.3836 Hourly resistance Mar 8

*PRICE: $1.3802 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3710 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3613 High Jan 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 21-DMA ($1.3904) and the $1.3940 resistance

has taken its toll with a close below the 55-DMA ($1.3833) leaving the pair

looking a little heavy. Bears now look for a close below $1.3710 to shift

initial focus to $1.3612-56. Layers of resistance remain but $1.3940 is key.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3940 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and shift focus back to $1.4150.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.19 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 1: Y106.86 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y106.70 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.32 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support 

*SUP 2: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 3: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation and a lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows is less

than ideal for bears who are currently focused on Y98.95-101.15. In saying that,

resistance layers remain with bulls needing a close above Y107.19 to ease

bearish pressure. Above Y108.03 is needed to hint at a correction to

Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm. Bears now need a close below

Y105.22 to add weight to their case.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Back On 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y133.42 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.18 High Feb 27

*RES 1: Y131.80 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.35 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.49 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 2: Y129.57 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.68 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA and the 21-DMA now

capping has resulted in a sell-off and sees immediate focus back on Y129.33-57

where 2018 lows and the 200-WMA are noted. Bears now look for a close below

Y129.33 to initially pressure the 55-WMA and reconfirm overall focus on

Y125.80-127.54, Bulls now need a close above Y132.18 to ease bearish pressure

and shift initial focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8915 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8890 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8877 Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8844 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the key Gbp0.8928 resistance took its toll with the

close above shifting initial bullish focus to Gbp0.9013-48. The Bollinger band

top (Gbp0.8955) remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

Layers of support remain in place with bears needing a close below Gbp0.0.8877

to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8685-0.8769 where monthly and 2018 lows are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7842 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 3: $0.7881 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7842 - High Mar 6

*RES 1: $0.7814 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*PRICE: $0.7777 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 2: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The pair has struggled with the 21-DMA ($0.7833) this week and the

rejection ahead of $0.7842 leaves the pair looking a little heavy. Bears now

look for a close below $0.7753 to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7694 to

confirm focus on tests of $0.7500 Dec lows. The $0.7842 resistance is now key.

Bulls now need a close above to hint at a move back to $0.7989 with above

$0.7910 now needed to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Returns To 55-DMA

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.514 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: 90.194 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.080 - Hourly support Mar 8

*SUP 2: 89.859 - Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support

*SUP 3: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on the break below 89.442 has resulted in

rally and bullish close that eased bearish pressure and sees focus back on

90.514-91.011 where the 55-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 91.011 to shift initial focus to 91.751. Initial support is now noted on

the hourlies at 90.080 but bears now need a close below 89.407 to end bullish

hopes and shift focus back to 88.253 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 3.041

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 1: 2.906 - High Mar 6

*PRICE: 2.872 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.842 - Low Mar 7 

*SUP 2: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 3: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to

capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key

supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 2.609-696 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above

2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 3: $62.78 - Hourly resistance Mar 6 

*RES 2: $61.65 - Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance 

*RES 1: $60.81 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*PRICE: $60.14 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $59.57 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: $59.31 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: $55.96 - Monthly Low Dec 7

*COMMENTARY: Failing to gain traction above 21 & 55-DMAs ($61.36-05) has left

the contract looking heavy and immediate focus on the bull channel base and

100-DMA. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to

$53.30-55.37 with below $57.90 to confirm. Layers of resistance are building and

weighing with bulls now needing a close above $61.65 to gain breathing room and

above $64.24 to hint at a move back to $66.39-65.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Failure Weighing, 21-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1328.9 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1322.8 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*PRICE: $1317.4 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1301.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1288.7 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 21-DMA was brief with the correction lower

Wednesday leaving gold looking a little heavy. Bears now look for a close below

$1312.9 to confirm a return in focus to $1288.7-1302.5 where 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1351.3 to initially focus on

$1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Daily studies are well placed for

gains.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]