MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Confirm Focus on $1.2092-1.2153

*RES 4: $1.2639 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 1: $1.2364 Alternating support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.2331 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2255 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair stalled on approach to the weekly bear channel top

($1.2639) off 2008 highs in past weeks. Bulls take comfort in support emerging

on dips back towards the 55-DMA but need a close above $1.2364 to gain breathing

room and above $1.2446 to reconfirm focus on $1.2555-1.2639 where 2018 highs and

the LT bear channel top are situated. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to

confirm focus on $1.2092-1.2153.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3940

*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 1: $1.3912 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3894 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3836 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $1.3710 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 21-DMA ($1.3912) and the $1.3940 resistance

remains a concern for bulls. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3940 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to $1.4150. Above $1.4150 is

needed to target $1.4285-1.4349. The $1.3710-54 support region is key this week.

Bears continue to look for a close below $1.3710 to shift initial focus to

$1.3612-56.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y105.22

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 1: Y106.73 Hourly resistance Mar 12

*PRICE: Y106.60 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation and a lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows is less

than ideal for bears who are currently focused on Y98.95-101.15. In saying that,

resistance layers remain with bulls still needing a close above Y107.19 to ease

bearish pressure. Above Y108.03 is needed to hint at a correction to

Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm. Bears continue to look for a close

below Y105.22 to add weight to their case for a test of Y98.95-101.15.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, Bulls Need Close Above Y132.18

*RES 4: Y133.38 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.18 High Feb 27

*RES 1: Y131.59 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.45 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.49 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 2: Y129.53 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.92 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA and the 21-DMA

capping resulted in a sell-off and sees immediate focus on Y129.33-53 where 2018

lows and the 200-WMA are noted. Bears look for a close below Y129.33 to

initially pressure the 55-WMA and reconfirm overall focus on Y125.80-127.54.

Bulls still need a close above Y132.18 to ease bearish pressure and shift

initial focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 (Y133.78) & 100-DMAs are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8878 Hourly support Mar 12 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8870 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8846 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Monthly Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs has so far found support at

the 55-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to shift focus

back to Gbp0.8685-0.8769 where monthly and 2018 lows are noted. Daily studies

are well placed for a fresh leg lower. The Gbp0.8904 resistance is now key.

Bulls need a close above to gain breathing room and retain focus on

Gbp0.9013-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: 21-DMA & $0.7910 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7888 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7873 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7840 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7772 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA largely supported last week with the close above the

21-DMA Friday ensuring focus remains on the $0.7888-0.7910 resistance this week.

Bulls need a close above $0.7910 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and above

$0.7989 to shift overall focus to $0.8135-62 where 2015 & 2018 highs are

situated. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and

below the 100-DMA to return pressure to $0.7694-0.7710.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 89.407 To Target 2018 Lows

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 2: 90.387 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 90.187 - High Mar 12

*PRICE: 89.936 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.784 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA remains a concern for bulls who now

need a close above 90.420 to confirm a break and shift initial focus to 91.011.

A close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751-945 where the 100-DMA is noted.

Pressure has returned to the 21-DMA with bears continuing to look for a close

below 89.407 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and

shifting focus back to 88.253 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.842 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 1: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12

*PRICE: 2.877 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.842 - Low Mar 7 

*SUP 2: 2.821 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: Last week bears failed to capitalise on the recent sell-off from

2018 highs with the yield bouncing from ahead of key supports. Bears need a

close below 2.842 to gain breathing room and below 2.758 to end bullish hopes

and shift focus back to 2.609-704 where the 55-DMA is noted. Above 2.957 remains

needed to reconfirm focus on 3.041. Narrowing Bollinger bands are hinting at a

break out in the near future.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) $59.18 Support Key This Week 

*RES 4: $64.07 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 2: $62.22 - High Mar 12 

*RES 1: $61.73 - Hourly resistance Mar 12

*PRICE: $61.21 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.42 - Hourly resistance Mar 9a now support 

*SUP 2: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: $59.33 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.18 - High Feb 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy last week the $59.18-91 support region where

the 100-DMA and bull channel base ($59.39) are located confirmed significance

with a rally that provided bulls breathing room and hints at a test of

$63.05-64.07 this week. Overall a close above $64.07 remains needed to return

focus to $66.02-68.21. Bears need a close below $59.18 to hint at a move back to

$53.30-55.40 with below $57.60 to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, Bounces From Key Support Again

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1329.5 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1321.2 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in bounces from $1312.9 that see pressure back

on the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room

whereas a close above $1351.3 remains needed to initially focus on

$1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Bears need a close below $1312.9 to

confirm a return in focus to $1289.1-1302.9 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]