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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
4 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Initial Focus On $1.2225-1.2240
*RES 4: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2344 High Apr 2
*RES 1: $1.2336 55-DMA
*PRICE: $1.2281 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2240 Low Mar 20
*SUP 2: $1.2225 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low
*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1
*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support
*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on gains was a concern for bulls last week
and left the pair looking offered with immediate focus on $1.2225-1.2240 where
the bull channel base is noted. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to
the bearish case. Bulls need a close above $1.2371 to gain breathing room and
above $1.2477 to retain focus on $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear channel top
off 2008 highs is located.
CABLE TECHS: 200-WMA Capping, Supported Ahead Of 55-DMA
*RES 4: $1.4257 200-WMA
*RES 3: $1.4200 High Mar 28
*RES 2: $1.4127 Hourly support Mar 28 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.4096 High Mar 29
*PRICE: $1.4089 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3992 55-DMA
*SUP 2: $1.3984 Low Mar 20
*SUP 3: $1.3873 Low Mar 13
*SUP 4: $1.3744 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-WMA resulted in a correction back
towards the 55-DMA. Bears need a close below $1.3984 to confirm a break of the
55-DMA & add weight to the case for a correction back to $1.3873 with below
targeting $1.3710-54. Bulls now need a close above $1.4127 to gain breathing
room and above $1.4200 to return focus to $1.4257-1.4349 where the 200-WMA &
2018 high are located.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 3: Y107.40 55-DMA
*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13
*RES 1: Y106.75 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*PRICE: Y106.49 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.37 Hourly support Apr 3
*SUP 2: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support
*SUP 3: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26
*SUP 4: Y104.28 LT Rising TL off 2016 low
*COMMENTARY: Despite the correction lower from last week's highs bulls take
comfort in support emerging on dips. Bears need a close below Y105.29 to add to
confidence and below Y104.28 to confirm focus on Y99.08-101.15 where 2016 lows
are noted. The 55-DMA is now key resistance. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA
to shift immediate focus to Y108.03-42 and to hint at a move targeting
Y109.50-110.71 where key WMAs and the 200-DMA are located.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y128.94 Targets Y125.80-127.54
*RES 4: Y132.51 55-DMA
*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13
*RES 2: Y132.08 200-DMA
*RES 1: Y131.29 High Apr 2
*PRICE: Y130.78 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support
*SUP 2: Y129.39 200-WMA
*SUP 3: Y129.37 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23
*COMMENTARY: The pair currently remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and
capped ahead of the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA (Y133.08) key topside. Bulls need a
close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018
highs with a close above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 to
start the new week with bears needing a close below to return focus to
Y128.94-129.39 where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8816 55-DMA
*RES 3: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16
*RES 2: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27
*RES 1: Gbp0.8730 Hourly resistance Apr 3
*PRICE: Gbp0.8714 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8707 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8662 100-WMA
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and bounce from ahead of the 100-WMA
has remained capped ahead of key DMAs with pressure having returned to key
support layers. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to target Gbp0.8495-0.8535.
A close below the 100-WMA was last seen in Jan 2016. While the 100-WMA supports
bulls target 2018 highs but now need a close above the 100-DMA to add support to
their case and shift initial focus to Gbp0.8874-0.8904.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7718
*RES 4: $0.7820 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high
*RES 3: $0.7810 - 200-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22
*RES 1: $0.7718 - Hourly resistance Mar 27
*PRICE: $0.7709 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7667 - Hourly support Apr 3
*SUP 2: $0.7630 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14
*SUP 3: $0.7598 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Recent hesitation ahead of 2018 lows has seen the pair correct
higher with bulls needing a close above $0.7718 to gain breathing room and above
the 55-DMA ($0.7845) to shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to
$0.8135-62. Bears currently focus on $0.7500-80 and look for a close below the
100-WMA to add weight to their case.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 89.714
*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance
*RES 3: 91.240 - 100-DMA
*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance
*RES 1: 90.445 - High Mar 20
*PRICE: 90.093 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 89.797 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28
*SUP 3: 89.534 - Hourly resistance Mar 28a now support
*SUP 4: 89.251 - Low Mar 28
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of 88.960 has seen the
pendulum swing back the other way and focus having returned to 90.445. Bulls
need a close above this level to confirm a shift in focus to 91.011-751 where
the 100-DMA is located. Layers of support are again following the index higher
with bears now needing a close below 89.714 to ease renewed bullish pressure and
return initial focus to 88.955.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.815 Resistance Key
*RES 4: 2.859 - High Mar 27
*RES 3: 2.815 - Low Mar 26
*RES 2: 2.801 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: 2.799 - Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.779 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.717 - Low Apr 2
*SUP 2: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6
*SUP 3: 2.624 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24
*COMMENTARY: Having gained traction below the 55-DMA the bounce Tuesday was less
than ideal as daily studies approach O/S levels. Bulls continue to look for a
close above 2.815 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and gain breathing room with
above 2.859 to shift focus higher. While 2.815 caps bears focus on 2.585-648
where the 100-DMA is noted with a close below 2.717 needed to add weight to
their case.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Below $62.52 To Target 100-DMA
*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27
*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2
*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance
*RES 1: $63.86 - High Apr 3
*PRICE: $63.35 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $62.74 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a
*SUP 3: $60.78 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $59.91 - Low Mar 8
*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs combined with correcting O/B
studies have taken their toll with a sharp sell-off and bearish close Monday
that left the contract pressuring 21 & 55-DMAs. Bears now need a close below
$62.52 to confirm breaks and shift focus back to $59.91-60.78 where the 100-DMA
is noted. Bulls now need a close above $63.86 to gain breathing room and above
$65.42 to target 2018 highs.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1318.4-1328.3 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16
*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27
*RES 2: $1347.0 - High Mar 28
*RES 1: $1335.8 - Hourly support Apr 3 now resistance
*PRICE: $1334.2 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1328.3 - High Mar 29 now support
*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support
*SUP 3: $1310.9 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of the $1318.3 support
with focus having returned to layers of resistance $1361.7-1374.9 where 2018
highs are located. The Bollinger band top ($1349.4) is the key concern for bulls
with potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below $1328.3 to
ease bullish pressure and below $1318.3 to pressure 100 & 200-DMAs
$1294.3-1310.9.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.