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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Initial Focus On $1.2225-1.2240
*RES 4: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2344 High Apr 2
*RES 1: $1.2336 55-DMA
*PRICE: $1.2281 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 
*SUP 2: $1.2225 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 
*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 
*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support
*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on gains was a concern for bulls last week
and left the pair looking offered with immediate focus on $1.2225-1.2240 where
the bull channel base is noted. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to
the bearish case. Bulls need a close above $1.2371 to gain breathing room and
above $1.2477 to retain focus on $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear channel top
off 2008 highs is located.
     CABLE TECHS: 200-WMA Capping, Supported Ahead Of 55-DMA
*RES 4: $1.4257 200-WMA 
*RES 3: $1.4200 High Mar 28 
*RES 2: $1.4127 Hourly support Mar 28 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.4096 High Mar 29
*PRICE: $1.4089 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3992 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1.3984 Low Mar 20 
*SUP 3: $1.3873 Low Mar 13 
*SUP 4: $1.3744 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-WMA resulted in a correction back
towards the 55-DMA. Bears need a close below $1.3984 to confirm a break of the
55-DMA & add weight to the case for a correction back to $1.3873 with below
targeting $1.3710-54. Bulls now need a close above $1.4127 to gain breathing
room and above $1.4200 to return focus to $1.4257-1.4349 where the 200-WMA &
2018 high are located.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 
*RES 3: Y107.40 55-DMA 
*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 
*RES 1: Y106.75 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*PRICE: Y106.49 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.37 Hourly support Apr 3 
*SUP 2: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 
*SUP 3: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 
*SUP 4: Y104.28 LT Rising TL off 2016 low
*COMMENTARY: Despite the correction lower from last week's highs bulls take
comfort in support emerging on dips. Bears need a close below Y105.29 to add to
confidence and below Y104.28 to confirm focus on Y99.08-101.15 where 2016 lows
are noted. The 55-DMA is now key resistance. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA
to shift immediate focus to Y108.03-42 and to hint at a move targeting
Y109.50-110.71 where key WMAs and the 200-DMA are located.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y128.94 Targets Y125.80-127.54
*RES 4: Y132.51 55-DMA
*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13
*RES 2: Y132.08 200-DMA
*RES 1: Y131.29 High Apr 2
*PRICE: Y130.78 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 
*SUP 2: Y129.39 200-WMA 
*SUP 3: Y129.37 55-WMA 
*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23
*COMMENTARY: The pair currently remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and
capped ahead of the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA (Y133.08) key topside. Bulls need a
close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018
highs with a close above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 to
start the new week with bears needing a close below to return focus to
Y128.94-129.39 where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8816 55-DMA 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8730 Hourly resistance Apr 3
*PRICE: Gbp0.8714 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8707 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8662 100-WMA 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and bounce from ahead of the 100-WMA
has remained capped ahead of key DMAs with pressure having returned to key
support layers. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to target Gbp0.8495-0.8535.
A close below the 100-WMA was last seen in Jan 2016. While the 100-WMA supports
bulls target 2018 highs but now need a close above the 100-DMA to add support to
their case and shift initial focus to Gbp0.8874-0.8904.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7718
*RES 4: $0.7820 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high
*RES 3: $0.7810 - 200-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22
*RES 1: $0.7718 - Hourly resistance Mar 27
*PRICE: $0.7709 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7667 - Hourly support Apr 3 
*SUP 2: $0.7630 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 
*SUP 3: $0.7598 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Recent hesitation ahead of 2018 lows has seen the pair correct
higher with bulls needing a close above $0.7718 to gain breathing room and above
the 55-DMA ($0.7845) to shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to
$0.8135-62. Bears currently focus on $0.7500-80 and look for a close below the
100-WMA to add weight to their case.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 89.714
*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 
*RES 3: 91.240 - 100-DMA 
*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 
*RES 1: 90.445 - High Mar 20
*PRICE: 90.093 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 89.797 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28
*SUP 3: 89.534 - Hourly resistance Mar 28a now support
*SUP 4: 89.251 - Low Mar 28
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of 88.960 has seen the
pendulum swing back the other way and focus having returned to 90.445. Bulls
need a close above this level to confirm a shift in focus to 91.011-751 where
the 100-DMA is located. Layers of support are again following the index higher
with bears now needing a close below 89.714 to ease renewed bullish pressure and
return initial focus to 88.955.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.815 Resistance Key
*RES 4: 2.859 - High Mar 27 
*RES 3: 2.815 - Low Mar 26 
*RES 2: 2.801 - 55-DMA 
*RES 1: 2.799 - Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.779 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 
*SUP 2: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6 
*SUP 3: 2.624 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24
*COMMENTARY: Having gained traction below the 55-DMA the bounce Tuesday was less
than ideal as daily studies approach O/S levels. Bulls continue to look for a
close above 2.815 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and gain breathing room with
above 2.859 to shift focus higher. While 2.815 caps bears focus on 2.585-648
where the 100-DMA is noted with a close below 2.717 needed to add weight to
their case.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Below $62.52 To Target 100-DMA 
*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 
*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2 
*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 
*RES 1: $63.86 - High Apr 3
*PRICE: $63.35 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $62.74 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a 
*SUP 3: $60.78 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $59.91 - Low Mar 8
*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs combined with correcting O/B
studies have taken their toll with a sharp sell-off and bearish close Monday
that left the contract pressuring 21 & 55-DMAs. Bears now need a close below
$62.52 to confirm breaks and shift focus back to $59.91-60.78 where the 100-DMA
is noted. Bulls now need a close above $63.86 to gain breathing room and above
$65.42 to target 2018 highs.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1318.4-1328.3 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 
*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 
*RES 2: $1347.0 - High Mar 28 
*RES 1: $1335.8 - Hourly support Apr 3 now resistance
*PRICE: $1334.2 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1328.3 - High Mar 29 now support 
*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 
*SUP 3: $1310.9 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of the $1318.3 support
with focus having returned to layers of resistance $1361.7-1374.9 where 2018
highs are located. The Bollinger band top ($1349.4) is the key concern for bulls
with potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below $1328.3 to
ease bullish pressure and below $1318.3 to pressure 100 & 200-DMAs
$1294.3-1310.9.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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