MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1691 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high

*RES 1: $1.1665 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1653 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1625 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 2: $1.1600 High June 28 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1575 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 21-DMA and bear channel top has seen

pressure return to the 2018 low ($1.1506). Bears look for a close below $1.1506

to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1434) & 200 ($1.1399) WMAs

may support along the way. Bulls now need a close above $1.1723 to confirm

breaks of the 21-DMA and bear channel top and initially target $1.1854-1.1901.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3190

*RES 4: $1.3414 Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3279 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3190 Low June 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3166 Hourly support June 27a now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3117 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3093 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 2: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2849 Low Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the $1.2995 support following fresh 2018

& 9mth lows Thursday as the pair currently flirts with the 100-WMA ($1.3071).

Bears continue to look for a close below $1.2995 to confirm traction below the

100-WMA and initially target $1.2770 Aug lows. The Bollinger base ($1.3073)

remains the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $1.3190 to gain

breathing room and above $1.3314 to shift initial focus back to $1.3446-1.3528.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y110.90

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.90 High June 15

*PRICE: Y110.71@ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 2: Y109.57 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.70 Low June 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 following the bounces from

around the 55-DMA. Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to confirm traction above

the 200-DMA (Y110.18) and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98. Bears still need a

close below Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (Y109.57) and Bull channel

base, initially pressuring Y107.85-108.19 where the 100-DMA is found with below

Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y128.81 Today

*RES 4: Y130.09 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs

*RES 3: Y129.76 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 1: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Y129.02 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.68 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 2: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 3: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: Y126.63 Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on pressure returning to Y126.98 with

bulls taking comfort in the rally in Asia Friday. Bulls now look for a close

above Y128.81 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift initial focus

back to Y129.65-130.490 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top off 2018

highs are found. Bears now need a close below Y128.68 to ease renewed bullish

pressure and below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-WMA 

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8884 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8860 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8837 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8819 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA and 55-WMA has taken its toll with the pair

looking bid and gaining traction above the 55-WMA with focus now shifting to

Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. Bulls look for a close above 2018 highs to confirm focus

on Gbp0.9013-0.9107. Layers of support are accumulating with bears now need a

close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure. The Bollinger top (Gbp0.8858)

is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On Dec 2016 Low

*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 3: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 2: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 1: $0.7407 - High June 27

*PRICE: $0.7384 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7323 - 2018 Low June 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7152 - Monthly Low Dec 26 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Wed saw bears shift focus to $0.7152 Dec

2016 monthly lows although the weekly bear channel base ($0.7226) may slow the

move. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base ($0.7270) are key concerns for

bears. Bulls need a close above $0.7443 to gain breathing room and above $0.7481

to shift initial focus back to $0.7537-0.7627 where the 55 ($0.7537) DMA is

located. Above the 55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.568 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.533 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 95.090 - Low June 28 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.926 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 2: 94.384 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 93.190 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs have lacked follow through with hesitation

around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

100-WMA (95.568) to target 96.617. The 94.028 support remains key. Bears need a

close below this level to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and to shift focus

back to 92.199-93.190 where 55 & 200-DMAs are located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Initially Targeting 2.717-759

*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 1: 2.873 - Hourly resistance June 27

*PRICE: 2.855 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures around 2.950 saw pressure return to the 2.853

support resulting in a close below Wednesday that now sees focus back on

2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The Bollinger base (2.830) is the key

concern for bears and currently supports. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 2.873 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to pressure the key 3.014-050

resistance region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Bears Need Close Below $72.18

*RES 4: $79.85 - High Nov 10 2014 

*RES 3: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 2: $75.87 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $74.03 - 2018 High June 28

*PRICE: $73.18 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27 

*SUP 2: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 3: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26 

*SUP 4: $69.44 - High June 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($68.21) provided the base for gains that

have resulted in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs. Bulls now focus their attention on the

$75.87-79.85 region where the LT weekly bull channel top ($75.87) is situated.

O/B studies and the Bollinger top ($72.73) remain concerns for bulls. In saying

that, bears now need a close below $72.18 to gain breathing room and below

$71.40 to shift initial focus back to $69.44-70.02.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA & LT TL

*RES 4: $1274.2 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1272.5 - High June 25 

*RES 2: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1254.3 - High June 28

*PRICE: $1249.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1245.3 - 2018 Low Jan 28 

*SUP 2: $1237.9 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows continue to add weight to the bearish case

targeting tests of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows around $1237.9. The

Bollinger base ($1243.2) and O/S daily studies looking to correct remain key

concern for bears. Bulls look for a close above $1262.7 to gain breathing room

and above $1284.1 to return pressure to $1292.2-1310.5.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]