MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1.1723

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1746 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1723 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 3: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA to start the

new week is less than ideal for bulls. The $1.1889-1.1924 region where the

55-WMA ($1.1924) is noted is key. Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to

shift initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.2013) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs

are found. Bears now need a close below $1.1723 to ease renewed bullish pressure

and below $1.1589 to pressure 2018 lows.

     CABLE TECHS: Aggressively Rejected Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3391 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3362 High July 9 

*RES 2: $1.3325 Hourly support July 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3274 Alternating support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.3240 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3231 Hourly resistance July 9 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3188 Low July 9 

*SUP 3: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 4: $1.3092 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.3314 resistance lacked follow through with

the move aggressively rejected ahead of the 55-DMA. Layers of resistance

building leave the pair looking a little offered. Bears now need a close below

$1.3188 to reconfirm focus on $1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are noted. Bulls

now look for a close above the 55-WMA ($1.3456) to shift initial focus to

$1.3586-1.3711 where 100 ($1.3674) & 200 ($1.3586) DMAs are located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 1: Y111.18 High May 22

*PRICE: Y111.07 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.78 High July 6 now support 

*SUP 2: Y110.12 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.95 Low June 28, 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.35 Low June 25

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where

May highs are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end

bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.24-44 where the 200-WMA

(Y113.24) is noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a

close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to confirm a

break of the bull channel base (Y110.35) off 2018 lows and return pressure to

Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.46.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y130.34

*RES 4: Y131.94 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.48 55-WMA

*RES 2: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 1: Y130.55 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y130.48 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.37 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.40 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to layers of resistance has taken its toll with

the pair breaking above the 100-DMA (Y130.27) and Y130.34 resistance. Bulls

still need a close above Y130.34 to confirm traction and initial focus on

Y131.37-94 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. Daily studies at O/B levels

are the key concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close below Y129.83 to gain

breathing room and below the 55-DMA to shift immediate pressure back to Y128.40.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8849

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8873 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8849 Hourly resistance July 9 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8809 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support and provided the base for a rally

that stalled just short of the Gbp0.8904 resistance. Bulls need a close above

this level to shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger top

is noted at Gbp0.8887 and continues to limit follow through. Initial support is

noted at Gbp0.8849 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room.

Below Gbp0.8779 is needed to confirm breaks of 55 (Gbp0.8785), 100 (Gbp0.8785) &

21-DMAs and to shift focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $0.7552 - Weekly Low June 4 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7500 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7483 - High July 9

*PRICE: $0.7473 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7444 - High July 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7420 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 & 18mth lows last week

with the pair trading at the week's high Friday. Bulls now need a close above

the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.7611-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7611) & 200

($0.7692) are located with above $0.7552 confirming. Daily studies still have

room to move before O/B is an issue. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to

ease bullish pressure and return focus to 2018 lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 95.141 - High July 2 

*RES 3: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance 

*RES 2: 94.598 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 94.206 - High July 9

*PRICE: 94.090 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.740 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 3: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 4: 92.249 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 100-WMA (95.523) to target 96.617. The break of 94.028 sees immediate

pressure on the 55-DMA and bears now focused on a break of 93.193 needed to

pressure 100 (92.035) & 200 DMAs. Bulls now need a close above 94.728 to gain

breathing room and return pressure to 95.140-531.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 1: 2.884 - High July 3

*PRICE: 2.866 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.847 - Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 2: 2.838 - Hourly support July 9a 

*SUP 3: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted. The Bollinger base (2.800) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern

for bears and limit follow through. Bulls continue to look for a close above

2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &

100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.14 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $75.86 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3 

*RES 2: $74.90 - High July 4 

*RES 1: $74.28 - High July 9

*PRICE: $74.01 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $72.99 - Low July 9 

*SUP 2: $72.14 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs last Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily

and weekly bull channel tops. Very O/B daily studies remain key concerns for

bulls and limit follow through. Below $72.14 is now needed to hint at a move

back to $69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case.

While $72.14 supports bulls retain an advantage with focus remaining on bull

channel tops $75.86-76.32.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1272.7 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1265.9 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1260.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1257.0 - Hourly breakout level July 9 

*SUP 2: $1250.7 - Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 4: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA ($1234.0). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of

key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls now need a close above the

21-DMA to return initial focus to $1272.7 where the 100-WMA is noted and above

the 100-WMA to target $1284.0-1292.1. 

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]