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MNI: EUROZONE DATA: Flash HICP (Apr 2019) Preview....>

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MNI: EUROZONE DATA: Flash HICP (Apr 2019) Preview - 10:00 BST
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- HICP (y/y): Bbg Consensus: 1.6%; MNI Median: 1.6%; Previous (Feb): 1.4%
- Core HICP (y/y): Bbg Consensus: 1.0%; MNI Median: 1.0%; Previous (Feb): 0.8%
- National data released from the Big Four member states suggests upside risk to
market forecasts for both headline & core
- Annual HICP inflation rose 0.7pp to a 5-month high of 2.1% in Germany, 0.3pp
to 1.6% in Spain and 0.1pp in France & Italy to 1.4% & 1.2% respectively
- Available detail showed the main upward pressure stemming from core prices,
especially tourism-related services, related to the timing of Easter this year
- As the Easter effect reverses, both headline & core inflation should cool in
May and stay relatively stable and subdued over the rest of the year
- While recent supply disruptions have caused a spike in oil prices, they should
still moderate this year on cooler global growth and increases in US oil output
- As such, energy should continue to act as a drag on headline HICP, while
constrained pricing power will keep a lid on underlying inflation dynamics

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