MNI EXCLUSIVE: Italy Faces Regional Votes For Greater Autonomy

--Regional Votes Will Underline Political Risks Ahead 2018 Election

By Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - As tensions in Catalonia ease just a little, two looming

referenda in Italy appear set to move the regional autonomy debate away from

Spain. The northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto will likely vote for greater

federalism and increased autonomy in certain fields, including the handling of

taxation which is key issue, senior lawmakers have told Market News

International. 

     The two regions will vote on greater autonomy on October 22, risking

increased political tensions and instability ahead of next year's general

election as parties across the spectrum look to define their manifestoes,

looking for "winning" platform themes. 

     Voter turnout is expected to be good and is likely to boost the ratings for

 populist parties.

     Lombardy, Italy's production and financial hub, is a net contributor to

state finances and makes up a big slice of national GDP. Its GDP per capita

(E30,600) makes it the third richest region in the European Union. Populism,

though, is rising: Lombardy is the region with the highest concentration of

refugee camps in Italy, giving pro-reform supporters further valid reason to

battle against Rome. 

     If locals vote 'yes' at the referendum, the outcome would entail

significant falls in tax revenues for the central state, but granting Lombardy a

"fiscal bonus" of roughly E56 billion.  

     Both regions are demanding, if they secure a positive vote outcome, that

90% of taxation stays within their territory. 

     The recent Catalonian independence referendum, despite the uncertain

outcome and current stalemate, has increased confidence in Italy's northern

regions that similar successes will be replicated at home. 

     But regional 'populists' argue their goal is different from the Spanish

case: The Northern League party, several local Democrats and members of the

anti-establishment 5Star movement argue they do not seek independence from Rome,

just greater legislative autonomy.

     "We are simply asking to implement what is already envisaged in the Italian

constitution for specific regions, and despite past failed referenda, we believe

this time we can make it," Senator Massimiliano Fedriga, Northern League party

leader in the Senate told MNI. 

     "We expect a high voter turnout, in sign of protest against former premier

Matteo Renzi's failed constitutional reform attempt aimed at centralizing power

in Rome. Pro-autonomy support is wide-spread among many other parties, it's not

just us spearheading it," said Fedriga.  

     Officials and analysts in Rome fear that the referenda could trigger

political mayhem and raise party tensions ahead of next year's national vote,

giving another hot issue to exploit in an attempt to lure voters. 

     The referenda will also act as a testing ground to measure voter turnout at

next spring's national elections. 

     "It's a very clever political move that falls just at the right moment, in

between the approval of the 2018 budget and a few months before the general

elections," argued Democrat Giampaolo Galli, member of the Lower House Budget

Committee. 

     Lombardy and Veneto both aim to obtain what is already granted by the

constitution to other 5 regions in Italy already enjoying a "special statute"

granting them more powers and autonomy. 

     According to Galli, rising populist stances across Europe are fuelling

"localisms", that are "shifting from nationalisms of nation states built in the

1800's to a greater role of smaller, local communities within the states" that

demand more space to handle taxes as they wish and approve laws, just like

Catalonia in Spain. 

     If the referenda were to pass, the risk is that of "destroying national

solidarity and burden-sharing among regions,", explained Galli, as "all the rich

Italians would end up moving to live in one small area, concentrating their

wealth over there". 

     Another risk is that of giving parties a concrete field on which to fight,

according to Giovanni Orsina, School of Government head at Rome-based LUISS

University.

     "The trouble is, parties are grappling in search of real, sound electoral

themes, and the referenda, depending on voter turnout, could give them a great

battle field. The 'northern/rich' regions issue versus the 'southern/poor' ones

is dormant right now in the pre-electoral campaign debate, but could be woken up

with catastrophic political consequences. A spark that could trigger a fire,"

Orsina said. 

     Polls suggest the referenda are likely to pass with up to 80% of votes in

each region. If so, a long period of negotiations between central government and

the winning regions would start to modify power divisions, which could see

months pass before a decree is issued to regulate the new state/region

relationship. 

     A 'yes' victory could have another major impact -- possibly fracturing the

populist Northern League, however. "Lombardy's governor Roberto Maroni is a

Northern League traditionalist, a hawk. Current party leader Matteo Salvini, a

dove, has kept a lower profile by not cleverly linking the upcoming referenda to

the outcome in Catalonia, argued Orsina.

     "Salvini wants the Northern League, Italy's third-largest party, to be a

nation-wide group and not just restricted to the north. He wants southerners

votes as well, and aims to boost his current 15% poll rating to consolidate his

dominion in the populist front," said Orsina. 

     The uncertain outcome in Catalonia, and the political mayhem triggered by

the independence referendum which result is now being blocked, are pushing

Salvini to adopt a careful stance but "localist" feelings are set to rise in

Italy as the electoral campaign heats up by the day. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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