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- The U.S. economy has reached an "inflection point", per Fed Chair Powell's comments earlier this month – but a policy shift from the FOMC will still have to wait until later in the year.
- For now, markets appear to be aligning with the Fed's patient approach.
- Focus at the April FOMC will be on any changes to the statement to reflect strong incoming economic activity data, and the degree to which (if any) Powell indicates that the upcoming meetings are 'live' with regards to discussions on tapering asset purchases.
- Opinion is split on whether the Fed will deliver a technical change to its administered rates at this meeting, but it's doubtful that short-end rates have fallen low enough to force the central bank's hand.
- FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR LINK - note: has been updated since the Apr 26 publication to reflect Deutsche Bank's Fed funds rate call change post-March FOMC – see p.4 of PDF and table below