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MNI Fed Preview - Mar 2022: Lifting Off Amid New Uncertainty

MNI Fed Preview - Mar 2022: Lifting Off Amid New Uncertainty

MNI Fed Preview - Mar 2022: Lifting Off Amid New Uncertainty

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The FOMC will hike rates for the first time since 2018 at the March meeting, opting for a 25bp increase.
  • The Statement and Chair Powell will signal that this hike is the beginning of a series of increases.
  • But solid forward guidance may prove elusive, especially given geopolitical uncertainties.
  • The Dot Plot median is likely to show at least 5 FOMC rate hikes in 2022, with risks that the median “Dot” is even higher than that if participants want to bring rates close to “neutral” quickly in the face of high inflation pressures.
  • We may get more specifics on future balance sheet policy as the Fed eyes reducing its asset holdings beginning in the coming months.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

FedPrevMar2022.pdf



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