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MNI Fed Preview - Nov 2021: Already Looking Beyond The Taper

FED
Our Fed preview has just been published. A summary:
  • With a $15B/month taper all but certain to be announced at the November FOMC, most attention is on the Fed's communication surrounding the inflation dynamics, and any further signals on the rate hike outlook.
  • Hawkish risks to watch at the meeting include the removal/change of "transitory" description of inflation in the Statement, and/or Powell doing little to push back against increasingly aggressive market rate hike pricing.
  • The dovish-leaning risks are relatively limited, including a surprise that the taper pace will be conducted per meeting vs per month; and/or that the taper will begin in December rather than November.
  • Prior to the Sept FOMC, sell-side consensus was for Fed rate liftoff in 2023, and a taper pace of $15B/meeting. That's changed to 2022 / $15B/month, alongside significant market rate hike repricing which includes at least 2 hikes in 2022.
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