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MNI Fed Preview - November 2022: Keeping Year-End Options Open

FED

Our preview of the November FOMC has been published and was sent to subscribers earlier today - it is also available on the MNI Website in PDF format.

  • The November meeting is mainly about the message the Fed wants to send about its plans for December.
  • A 4th consecutive 75bp hike is assured this time. A step-down to a 50bp hike at the following meeting looks like the path of least resistance for now – the question is, how strongly does the FOMC seek to express that view.
  • In a close call, we expect only limited changes to the Statement – but anticipate that Chair Powell will signal that the Committee is currently eyeing either 50bp or 75bp in December, with the decision to be data-dependent.
  • If there are substantive changes to the Statement, the risks are almost certainly that they lean dovish, with either an overt nod to slowing the pace of increases, or a reference to the impact of cumulative hikes on the economy.

Note to readers: Beginning with this edition, MNI’s Fed Preview will be published the week prior to the FOMC meeting, with a separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow in the week of the meeting.

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